Ukraine War Daily Summary
30 Sep 22
At the geopolitical level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are now part of Russia and will be protected by all available means. During a 37-minute long speech, Putin spoke about the break up of the Soviet Union, Western “colonial policy”, nuclear weapons, and his view of Western morals.
Key Quotes
“We will defend our land with all the powers and means at our disposal.”
“I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me so that they remember this. People living in Luhansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia are becoming our citizens. Forever. We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately end hostilities, end the war that they unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table.”
“The United States is the only country in the world that has twice used nuclear weapons, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and setting a precedent.”
G7 Foreign Ministers imposed new economic costs on Russia for annexation of the four Ukrainian oblasts. The joint statement said new economic costs will be imposed on those who provide “political or economic support” to Russia’s recent actions.
Ukraine had warned that the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon is "very high." Deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence Vadim Skibitsky has said that Russia will target frontline areas with lots of equipment and personnel.
Russian Ambassador to Turkey Alexei Yerkhov has warned that the US has lowered the threshold for nuclear escalation and that NATO countries speak openly about nuking Russia. The Kremlin is creating a "NATO aggression" pretext for a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
There is some thought that Russia will reach back into Cold War-era nuclear doctrine and ‘fire’ a ‘nuclear warning shot’ by setting off a tactical nuclear weapon over a remote area or even the Black Sea before a strike on a land-based target. All part of Russian doctrine to escalate a conflict to nuclear war to force deescalation by its opponents.
Poland has said that NATO will respond conventionally to a nuclear strike from Russia on Ukraine but a strike on NATO territory would presumably allow for a nuclear response from the US.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that Ukraine has formally applied for accelerated NATO membership.
Former German Intelligence Chief Gerhard Schindler has said that Russia carried out sabotage on Nord Stream pipelines. By claiming the pipelines themselves are defective, Russia can have a firmer pretext to block gas shipments.
The Institute for the Study of War has reported that the bureaucratic failures in Russia's partial mobilization may indicate that Putin has again bypassed the higher military command or the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN warned Thursday he is concerned that some Russian draft dodgers attempting to avoid conscription and entering Ukraine might actually be Russian “Trojan horses” meant to wreak havoc later.
Belarus has four to seven Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. The Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.
Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued with their focus on the southern central regions around Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on and around Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv. Russian shelling was heavy near the frontlines east of Soledar and north of Lyman, but more sporadic around Donetsk and in the other impacted regions. Kramatorsk and Mykolaiv were targeted by significant artillery and missile attacks.
On the ground, Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast continues to progress, but there is heavy Russian resistance.
Fighting around Lyman is heavy with Russian forces isolated and its fall believed to be imminent. Russia is "pulling up reserves" to Lyman but the situation is "very unpleasant." The units defending Lyman are Luhansk People's Republic militias and the 20th Combined Arms Army
Heavy fighting continues south and east of Bakhmut where the Russians are up against strong fortified Ukrainian defences.
Fighting around settlements and towns to the east of Bakhmut has slowed and things were also less active north of Donetsk City.
The Ukrainian counteroffensives east of Zaporizhzhia and around Kherson continues to make progress.
Russian Naval Activity in the Black Sea has continued to be fluid and at least one cruise missile carrier is active.
