Ukraine War Daily Summary

16 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has ordered Russian troops to 'increase actions' in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Sergey Shoigu “inspected” Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. It should be noted that Russia continues to recruit foreign fighters the Syria, recently retired reservists and convicts with military experience to avoid moving to full mobilization of its military and reserve forces.

Russian ally Belarus has continued command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

Across the Theatre of Operations since the start of the war, Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs has said Russia launched “17,314 strikes on civilian targets, and a little more than 300 hits on military targets.”

Russian air/missile strikes continued with Dnipro impacted by several cruise missiles last night as was Bila Tserkva south of Kyiv, but the majority of the attacks are again in the south and southeast. Odesa was also targeted again this morning. Russian strategic bombers launched multiple stand off airstrikes from the Caspian Sea targeting mostly manufacturing and infrastructure in the Dnipro region. Russian shelling continues to be significant around Bakhmut, Siversk and towards Slovyansk. Kramatorsk was also targeted as was the Sumy region.

The US believes that Russian officials have visited an airfield in Iran to view drones. The Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones are of special interest to Russia. Iran says that the Shahed-191 has been used in Syria to target ISIS, while the Shahed-129 has been used for border patrol on Iran's eastern border and for airstrikes in Syria.

On the ground, North of Kharkiv fighting and shelling continues, with no significant changes on the ground.

Heavy fighting continues around Bilohorivka, Siversk and south/southeast of Bakhmut as well as north of here along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway. Fighting is likely to intensify in the Donbas this week as Russia seems to be finalising its resupply ‘Operational Pause’. According to Ukraine's General Staff, the Russian army is focusing on gaining control over the towns of Siversk and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine has repelled another Russian attempt to seize the Vuhlehirsk power plant.

Siversk is still reportedly under the control of Ukrainian forces despite some claims to the contrary.

Ukrainian forces continue to contain most Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum with fighting ongoing West and North of the city.

Russian forces that advanced southeast attacked Bohorodychne again which is now contested. Heavy fighting is ongoing here and to its south where Ukrainian forces have fortified positions.

Further south there was also increased Russian air activity east of Zaporizhzhia where Ukrainian artillery units were targeted.

Ukraine has warned that Russia is using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as a military base to store missiles and arms used to shell Ukrainian cities.

North of Kherson Russian forces conducted shelling and air/missile strikes on Ukrainian units. Russian defences have been fortified here and their heavy resistance has slowed the Ukrainian counter-offensive east.

In and around Kherson there were more artillery strikes by Ukrainian forces onto Russian units and resupply depots to the southeast with no changes on the ground.

15 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has scheduled an operational meeting of the Russian Security Council, as concerning rumours resound that Russia and Belarus are finally moving toward a reunification. The Russian leader has been very active this week, as he directed a reshuffle of government, and signed more than 60 bills on Thursday. On Friday, Putin signed a decree appointing Denis Manturov, Minister of Industry and Trade, as Russia's Deputy Prime minister and purged the Director General of the Space Program. Some observers are warning that Putin may, during Friday's meeting, sign a "pact to unite" Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. It is believed that Putin will use former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to sign the document. Yanukovych fled to Russia in 2014. There have been repeated threats by Russia to drag Belarus into the fighting and to put Yanukocych in place as the government in exile of Ukraine.

Canada’s Finance Minister told Russian officials at the G20 meeting that she held them personally responsible for “war crimes” committed during Russia’s war in Ukraine.

More than 40 countries reportedly agreed to work together to investigate suspected war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine during a conference at the headquarters of the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Russian ally Belarus has continued command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

Across the Theatre of Operations, Russian air/missile strikes continued with strikes further west killing more than 20 civilians and injuring over 60 after civilian buildings were hit in Vinnytsia. Vinnytsia was targeted by Kalibr cruise missiles fired from the Black Sea, but land launched, stand off airstrikes, and airstrikes by Russian aircraft providing Close Air Support all occurred in the last 24hrs with the south, south east and Kharkiv region continue to be the primary areas of air/missile strikes. Russian shelling continues to be significant around Siversk, Bakhmut and towards Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces conducted further HIMARS strikes overnight against Russian resupply depots in the Luhansk and Kherson Oblast regions.

On the ground, some shelling exchanges and fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv, but with no significant changes on the ground and no indications of any imminent new major Russian offensive.

Russian forces continued to slowly advance westwards from the town of Lysychansk in the Luhansk region towards Siversk in Donetsk.

Fighting continued around Bakhmut and Siversk and was intensive again south of Bakhmut. Some intensive fighting is also ongoing south of Izyum around Kurulka after Ukrainian counter-attack.

Fighting also continued to the west of Izyum in the forest and there were attacks to the north as Ukrainian forces try to interrupt Russian resupplies and continue to contain Russian forces.

There was also increased fighting to the southeast of Izyum around Bohorodychne.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia there were some Russian manoeuvres near Huliaipole with reports of some fortifications on defensive lines. Russia is also fortifying its defences significantly around Kherson with concrete fortifications.

Senior US military official have warned on Russia's activities at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant saying, "I think we're all concerned about the Russians being responsible for anything nuclear."

There was another Ukrainian artillery attack on a base in Kherson yesterday and a resupply depot just outside the city. North of Kherson Russian forces launched airstrikes on Ukrainian positions who continue to make small gains south and east.

14 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian ally Belarus announced that command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region, Belarus will be held from July 12th to July 14th.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

Across the Theatre, the US Embassy in Kyiv has issued a "Missile Threat Awareness" security alert, warning to Americans to "avoid large gatherings and organized events as they may serve as Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including its western regions."

Russian air/missile strikes continued with the south and southeast mostly impacted. Russian shelling has continued to be intensive around Bakhmut, Siversk and towards Slovyansk with some intensive phases north of Kharkiv. According to the Ukrainian State Emergency Service, 66 people, including three children, were injured and 22 killed as a result of the July 14th missile attack on downtown Vinnytsia. Russian attacks on Vinnytsia were Kalibr cruise missiles launched from Black Sea.

On the ground, North of Kharkiv fightings continues, with Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian units in the northeast, but Russian reconnaissance and small offensives are continuing with Close Air Support.

Ukrainian troops also repelled a Russian offensive near the village of Kurulka in Kharkiv Oblast in the direction of Sloviansk.

Some heavy fighting continues around Siversk, Bakhmut, Izyum and Slovyansk, but with minimal Russian gains.

There are reports Russian troops, along with forces from the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), have entered the city limits of Siversk in eastern Ukraine.

South of Bakhmut there was a large Russian offensive on Novoluhans'ke and another attack on the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power plant which remains in Ukrainian control.

North of Slovyansk most Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Bohorodychne to defensive positions on the high ground.

Continued Ukrainian counter offensives to the west of Izyum and ongoing containment operations continue to impede Russian forces reinforcing offensives on Slovyansk.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian airstrikes targeted Russian defensive positions.

Russia is fortifying defensive positions in and around Kherson and along the river to the north in anticipation of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive.

13 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is calling on Russia to immediately halt "filtration" and forced deportations in Ukraine. Blinken said Russia has interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians, including 260,000 children.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN there are currently no talks between Russia and Ukraine because of Moscow's position and continuing aggression. He said, "Ukraine's objective in this war is to liberate our territories and restore our territorial integrity and full sovereignty in the east and the south of Ukraine. This is the end point of our negotiating position."

The EU said Russia may continue the transit of sanctioned goods destined for the Kaliningrad Oblast through the bloc’s territory by rail but EU states must inspect goods being transported.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced that command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region, Belarus will be held from July 12 to July 14.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

Across the theatre of operations, Russian air/missile strikes continued with fewer impacts reported than recent days with the south and southeast were the main regions targeted. Russian shelling continues to be intensive across much of the Donbas with some intensive periods around Kherson and Kharkiv. According to Serhii Bratchuk, the spokesman for the Odesa Oblast Administration, Ukraine destroyed a Russian military base in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and five ammunition depots in Russian-occupied areas.

On the ground, around Kharkiv Russian forces launched a coordinated offensive on

Dementiivka, with significant artillery cover fire.

Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported a significant build-up of Russian troops, particularly in the Bakhmut and Siversk areas, and close to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as the region braces for a powerful pincer type offensive.

There was some heavy fighting around Siversk as Russian forces continue to push west and launch offensives towards the city from the east.

Russian advances in the Bakhmut region were minimal with Ukrainian reinforcements using artillery support. A Russian ammunition depot targeted in Luhansk last night is believed to have been launched from the Bakhmut region.

Russian manoeuvres towards Slovyansk were small and ineffective while there was some fighting west of Izyum again, but no reports of significant Russian movements.

The Russian units in and around Lyman continued to be resupplied, reinforced and reorganized with no reported activity.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia Russian units continued to be targeted by Ukrainian artillery with minimal Russian action reported.

Ukrainian forces targeted several Russian defensive positions near Kherson including a command post, ADS and the airfield again last night. Another ammunition depot was also hit near Charivne.

It is confirmed now that the Ukrainian long range artillery attack last night on Nova Kakhovka killed several Senior Russian Officers including a Major General.

More Russian reinforcements arrived in Kherson early this morning from Crimea and Melitopol.

12 Jul 22

In summary, there is a feeling of 1939 in the air that is hard to erase.

In September of 1939, Germany invaded Poland and when it was in its death throes Russia followed up splitting the country in half. In the Pacific, Japan threatened most of Southeast Asia, India, Australia, and invaded China subjugating much of the country and slaughtering its population. The free world was led by Winston Churchill and Franklyn Roosevelt while the axis leaders were Dictators Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and General Hideki Tojo all bent on conquest and changing the status quo. All brutal with domestic opponents that they brutalized and destroyed at home and abroad. The western powers sat back and watched as allies both in Europe and the Pacific begged for assistance, promising security guarantees and offering every support short of assistance. The dictatorships in Europe and Asia advanced and hoped the Western allies unprepared for war would lose interest and cooperate or collapse and appease the very dictatorships they loathed and feared.

In February of 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened the Baltic States and Poland. Meanwhile, Germany, Italy, and France denied the protection of NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia in the face of Russian aggression and complicated the alliance response by urges to appease blood thirsty murderers. In the Pacific, China threatened most of Southeast Asia, Japan, India, Australia, and is its slaughtering its population Turkic population in a genocide reminiscent of NAZI Germany. The free world has no Winston Churchill and Franklyn Roosevelt but the axis leaders have Dictators akin to Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and General Hideki Tojo in Presidents Putin, Lukashenko, Xi Jinping. All are bent on conquest and changing the status quo. All are ruthless with domestic opponents that they brutalized and destroyed at home and abroad. The Western powers have again sat back and watched as allies both in Europe and the Pacific begged for assistance, promising security guarantees and offering every support short of assistance. The dictatorships in Europe and Asia continued to advanced and hope the Western allies unprepared for war would lose interest and cooperate or collapse and appease the very dictatorships they loathed and feared.

In 1939, the geo-strategic dynamics led to total war and the use of nuclear weapons as the nature of human conflict escalated to a level never seen before in the history of war and today we are there again but without the resolve of Churchill and Roosevelt. We are there with the resolve of Biden and Trudeau and the evil that they must confront is as evil or more evil than that confronted more than 83 years ago by their predecessors. As you read today’s summary be aware of the fault-lines that could push us into total war. Recent, bi-lateral naval exercises between China and Russia in the Pacific were nothing more than a thinly disguised operation to threaten Japan and its Senkaku Islands and to deter Japan from coming to the aid of Taiwan, another democracy, in time of war.

At the grand strategic level, Canada's Ambassador to Ukraine has been summoned to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry over a break in Canada's support for Ukraine with Canada returning gas turbines to Germany needed for Nord Stream to operate. Ukrainian President Zelensky's said in a statement that, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to summon Canada’s envoy due to an absolutely unacceptable exception to the sanctions regime against Russia. The decision will be perceived in Moscow exclusively as a manifestation of weakness." The US has said that it supports Canada’s action to return the repaired turbines to Germany likely to maintain NATO cohesion. Gazprom has conducted 10 days of maintenance on Nord Stream and France is warnings about an imminent Russian gas supply cutoff to Europe. There is an increased fear that Russia is playing up technical issues as a smokescreen for the weaponization of gas. There can be little doubt as Moscow mocks Canada and claims victory that it will turn off the taps now anytime it wants and likely at the most strategic moment under the guise of a technical flaw. Canada has essentially handed Russia a strategic victory on Ukraine which have been few and far between for both sides of the war.

Turkey urged Russia to establish a sea corridor for grain via the Black Sea which aligns well with Ukraine's goals but Erdogan's call with Putin did not publicly reveal any serious discussions about ending Russia's smuggling of Ukrainian grain from Berdyansk near the Black Sea. Turkey is still engaged in damage control over its release of a Russian-flagged ship with stolen Ukrainian grain. After speaking with Putin, Erdogan held talks with Zelensky and continued Ankara’s shuttle diplomacy between Russia, Ukraine and the UN on the food insecurity crisis.

Former Russian President and Putin’s most trusted protege Dimtry Medvedev has warned that any attempts by the West to punish Russia with war crimes and investigations could lead to nuclear war. “These proposals are not only legally void. The idea of punishing a country that possesses [the world’s] largest nuclear potential is absurd in of itself. And potentially threatens the existence of mankind.”

Lithuania could be Russia's next target after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarus promised "joint measures" against the country because of an EU sanctions ban. The contentious issue of Russian cargo being transported to Kaliningrad from Minsk has raised tensions to boiling point between Lithuania and Russia, with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda refusing to back down.

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko claimed on Tuesday that the West was preparing to attack Russia via Belarus.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced that command-staff exercises with the territorial troops of the Zhlobin district/Gomel region, Belarus will be held from July 12 to July 14.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

The White House said it believes Russia is turning to Iran to provide it with “hundreds” of unmanned aerial vehicles, including weapons-capable drones, for use in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. There are concerns that many of these drones might be loitering munitions or suicide drones whose effectiveness was proven in the recent Armenian-Azerbaijan War. Azerbaijan used suicide drones to incredible effect on the much stronger Armenia Armed Forces and defeated them in battle. Russia is believed to have heavily monitored and studied the conflict.

According to the representative of the Ukraine Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, Vadym Skibitsky, Putin will not recognize that Russia's military actions in Ukraine are a full-scale war and will not announce mobilization.

Across the Theatre of Operations, Russian air/missile strikes have continued with impacts mostly in the south, southeast and around Kharkiv. Russian shelling continues to be intensive across the Donbas and several other regions, but Ukrainian HIMARS long range strikes are starting to have some impact on Russian defences. Ukrainian forces have succeeded in destroying multiple Russian command posts, warehouses storing ammo, fuel in recent days. A senior US military official warned on Friday that Ukraine was using US-provided HIMARs to target Russian command and control and logistics hubs. Russia still possesses an 8 to 1 artillery advantage over the Ukrainian military in barrelled and missile artillery.

On the ground, fighting continued north and northwest of Kharkiv but there were no significant changes on the ground. Russian forces are building-up again with a major offensive possible in the coming weeks.

Shelling and fighting remains intensive towards Slovyansk, but Ukrainian resistance remains strong.

Russian forces in and around Izyum continue contained with occasional heavy fighting to the west of the city.

Russian units made some progress securing roads and at least one settlement near Ivano-Darivka on their march to Siversk.

Russian forces continue to push forwards towards Bakhmut, but progress is very slow with reports of more significant casualties amongst their Private Contractors. South of Bakhmut Ukrainian forces remain in control of the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power plant despite some significant Russian attacks.

Russian troops are claiming to have seized control of the village of Hryhorivka in the Donetsk Oblast.

A Russian offensive to the west of Donetsk City was also repelled by Ukrainian units, but fighting has increased in this region. Russian air and artillery strikes have also increased.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

There were a number of effective Ukrainian artillery strikes east of Zaporizhzhia yesterday with reports of Russian vehicles and a command post destroyed.

Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbalyuk is claiming that the Commander, Chief of Staff, Chief of the Operations, and Commander of artillery for Russia's 20th Motorized Rifle Division and Chief of Staff of the 22nd Army Corps were killed in Kherson Oblast.

Around Kherson Ukrainian forces made some progress re-securing further settlements and strategic routes including Kyselivka northwest of the city outskirts and impeding Russian defences.

There was a significant Ukrainian artillery strike on a Russian ammunition, weapons and re-supply base near Nova Kakhovka with significant destruction and casualties.

There are five Russian missile-armed ships and one large landing ship in the Black Sea, as well as a submarine. In total, they carry 44 Kalibr-type cruise missiles.

11 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had discussed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and raise concerns about Beijing’s alignment with Moscow.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman characterised United Kingdom Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s early departure from Bali, before last week’s G20 meeting, as a “deep boycott” of the Russian delegation.

Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16th.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine.

At the Theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes continued but are less than usually reportedly with Kharkiv and parts of the south and southeast targeted. Russian shelling continued to be significant across much of the Donbas and around Slovyansk and Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly hit a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Nova Kakhovka for the fourth time. Ukraine has had great success using drones and artillery to destroy Russian fuel and ammunition depots. It is having an affect on Russian forces abilities to hold the lines during their so-called ‘operational pause. ‘

On the ground, fighting continued north of Kharkiv, but with no significant changes on the ground.

There was some Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum with heavy Close Air Support and reinforcements moving south for the Slovyansk offensive. There were Russian offensives around Bohorodychne which is now contested.

Russian specialist forces also launched an offensive to the west on Mazanivka, but this was so far repelled by Ukrainian forces.

Towards Bakhmut Russian forces made minimal gains, but have made progress towards and around Siversk securing some strategic roads and settlements.

North of Kherson Ukrainian forces are making minimal gains, under significant Russian resistance.

Russian forces are reinforcing defensive positions east of Zaporizhzhia digging in after Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes.

10 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Kyiv and its Western allies that Moscow has not yet started its military campaign in Ukraine “in earnest.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed what he cast as the West’s “frenzied” criticism of the war in Ukraine at the G20 meeting.

The joint summit of G20 Foreign Ministers opened in Bali on Thursday, with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi urging her counterparts to find ways to end the war in Ukraine sooner rather than later.

Canadian Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson announced on July 9th that Canada will return a repaired Russian turbine to Germany that Russia considers necessary for the supply of natural gas to Europe.

Russian forces continued to set conditions for the annexation of Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, and southern Ukraine.

Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16th.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine.

Across the Theatre, Russian air/missile strikes have continued but there are fewer reported than the usual trend. The use of Surface to Air missiles used as Surface to Surface has also been reported This is a likely an indication of a depletion in standoff munitions. Close Air Support by fast air has been reduced in recent days despite good weather. There seems to be an increased Russian ground air integration reliance on attack helicopters. There continues to be some Close Air Support by Russian Su-25s north of Slovyansk and south of Izyum. The use of Russian artillery has increased again and will likely remain intensive in many areas while Russia continues its ‘Operational Pause’ and reorganisation/regeneration.

On the ground, there were Russian missile strikes on Kharkiv and an increase in artillery strikes in the north in coordination with at least two Russian offensives on Kochubeivka and Dementiivka.

There are reports Russia is moving several reserve force units from around Russia to Crimea, Belgorod and other areas close to aid with their regeneration of forces after suffering heavy losses in the Luhansk Oblast offensives.

Fighting continues to be heavy around Siversk and Bakhmut with Russian forces making minimal gains.

Russia’s more immediate “tactical objective” in the east was likely to be the town of Siversk than capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

There was yet again minimal Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum yesterday with continued Ukrainian counteroffensives and containment operations in the region impeding Russia’s ability to reinforce its offensives towards Slovyansk.

Kherson airfield was reportedly targeted by Ukrainian missiles shortly after the arrival of Russian helicopters yesterday with likely loses.

An ammunition depot in the city was also targeted with heavy loss of Russian lives.

Ukrainian forces also targeted Russian defences near Mariupol last night with artillery fire.

Sabotage activity in the occupied regions and across the border in Russia continues to expand with many incidents. Railway lines and signals, communications, fuel depots are the most common targets, but the targeting of Russian Officials with IEDs is also increasing.

9 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, it was reported that Beijing and Moscow held a joint strategic bomber exercise in May.

Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16th.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

According to Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, Commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, measures are being taken to mine areas on the Belarusian border from which Belarus could attack Ukraine.

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued but there were less impacts than normal. Targets were mostly in the south and southeast.

On the ground, the Russian soldiers who have completed the seizure of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk and are "in need of regenerating combat power and building up supporting capabilities," including supply, before launching another large-scale offensive operation. Russian forces will likely continue to conduct more-limited offensive operations in this sector and elsewhere along the front line as they recognize the danger of allowing the Ukrainians to seize the initiative and initiate an offensive of their own. Artillery fire, airstrikes and smaller offensives will likely continue to provide cover for Russian reorganisation and resupply especially around Lysychansk, Popasna and Izyum.

As part of Russia’s covert mobilization there are reports Russia is now releasing Russian prisoners with military experience to help with the regeneration of units. Further sightings of new resupplies of old vehicles and weapons from reserve storage have been reported arriving by rail in Belgorod.

The situation around Kharkiv remains mostly unchanged with Russian offensives occuring almost daily with artillery and sometimes air support, but Ukrainian defences are holding and Russia continues to be mostly defending its resupply corridor to Izyum.

Heavy fighting continues in and around Siversk where the situation is extremely fluid. The situation around Bakhmut is much the same with Russian forces making creeping gains.

Russian offensives towards Slovyansk were mostly repelled yesterday, but heavy fighting continues in parts. Slovyansk will be next major offensive.

There were no further reported Russian manoeuvres of significance out of Izyum or Lyman yesterday.

Near Melitopol more railway lines and signals were sabotaged yesterday.

East of Zaporizhia Ukrainian forces are accelerating their counteroffensives attacking Russian forces in a number of regions with gains near Polohy.

North of Kherson Ukrainian forces made minimal gains on the ground.

8 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, the joint summit of G20 foreign ministers opened in Bali on Thursday, with Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi urging her counterparts to find ways to end the war in Ukraine sooner rather than later.

Russia’s Lavrov dismissed what he cast as the West’s “frenzied” criticism of the war in Ukraine at the G20 meeting, scolding Russia’s rivals for scuppering a chance to tackle global economic issues.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Kyiv and its Western allies that Moscow has not yet started its military campaign in Ukraine “in earnest”.

Belarus has extended for the third time military exercises until at least July 16, monitoring project Belarusian Gayun reported on Telegram, citing the schedule of exercises at Belarusian military training grounds.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Belarusian forces have conducted reconnaissance in northern Ukraine.

Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance and "stepping up measures to counter (Ukraine's) reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles."

On the ground, Russian forces continued to conduct limited offensive operations north of Slovyansk.

Russian forces continued attempting to advance toward Siversk from Lysychansk but did not make any confirmed territorial gains.

Russian forces launched assaults on Dementiivka

to disrupt Ukrainian ground lines of communication along the T2117 highway.

British intelligence has revealed that Ukraine's counter-offensive is making gradual advances in southwestern Kherson. Russia's efforts to fortify Kherson are insufficient and this trend could be behind Putin's discussion of a military slowdown after the Luhansk victory.

Russian forces continued to launch assaults on settlements along the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border to regain lost positions.

6 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will reportedly ask G20 nations this week to put pressure on Russia to support the United Nations’ efforts to reopen sea lanes blocked by the Ukraine conflict, and repeat warnings to China not to support Moscow’s war effort.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on all parties in the world to make efforts to protect international laws as “the world is evolving in a complicated manner”.

Lavrov went on to warn that the West is seeking to turn Ukraine “into an openly Russophobic, neo-Nazi state, a military foothold” that would threaten Russia’s security.

Latvia has returned to compulsory military service to fortify its defences. Latvia has just 7,500 active duty forces and National Guard members, as well as 1,500 NATO troops, so additional manpower is welcome to strengthen Baltic Sea security.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Across the Theatre, Russian continued to launch air/missile attacks yesterday, overnight and this morning from the air, land and sea again. Air alerts sounded across almost all of Ukraine on Tuesday night as there were attacks in the Khmelnytskyi region of western Ukraine, the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, the border region of Sumy, and the Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv and its region.

On the ground, Fighting around the final Luhansk pocket is ongoing, mostly around Lysychansk, towards Bakhmut from the south and east, and towards Slovyansk. Around Lysychansk Russian forces are consolidating and pushing units forward onto the Siversk offensive.

Russian troops are engaged in heavy fighting and making their way into Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Beyond Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, Russia's Donetsk offensive hinges on capturing Bakhmut. Bakhmut experienced intense

Russian attacks in mid-June, as it sat by the main road to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Now that Luhansk has fallen, Russia has forces closer to Bakhmut.

But Ukrainian troops stopped a Russian offensive near the village of Myronivka, about 30 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut, and near the settlement of Holmivskyi, 20 kilometers south of the city.

The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence has warned that the battle for the city of Sloviansk, in the Donetsk region, will be the next key contest in the struggle for the Donbas. Russian forces from the Eastern and Western Groups are now just 16 kilometres north of Sloviansk.

Russian troops have likely advanced another 5 kilometres down the main road from Izyum, but Ukraine’s resistance is “extremely determined.”

North east of Kherson Ukrainian made some further gains re-securing another two settlements. Further heavy fighting occurred around Davydiv Brid yesterday as Ukrainian reinforcements arrived from the west into the region.

There were Russian air/missile strikes against Ukrainian units on the Inhulets river but as of this morning Ukrainian forces still control Lozove maintaining a bridgehead.

5 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Finland and Sweden have signed the NATO accession protocol. This protocol allows for Finland and Sweden to join NATO meetings, which expand their access to intelligence, but does not include a mutual defence clause. Informal security guarantees from Britain and the US, which were widely discussed this spring, will come into play.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

In the theatre, British intelligence has assessed that Russia has “probably” achieved effective coordination between two major units fighting in Ukraine, the Central Grouping commanded by General-Colonel Alexandr Lapin and the Southern Grouping under recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin.

According to the Institute for the Study of War,

Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the Russian seizure of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border and appeared to direct the Russian military to conduct an operational pause. Putin met with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on July 4th to discuss recent Russian gains in Luhansk Oblast and presented Colonel General Alexander Lapin and Major General Esedulla Abachev with the “Hero of Russia” award for their leadership during the Lysychansk operation.

Russia is reportedly planning to build a railway link from Rostov to Donetsk and Luhansk. This builds on Russia's efforts to tighten economic cooperation between Kherson and Crimea, and steps up the informal annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Russian air/missile strikes continued with impacts reported across widespread regions. Kharkiv was hit by airstrikes overnight for the first time in a while with casualties reported. Central south regions were targeted significantly, while the south and southeast was also targeted with the majority of targets being military and infrastructure.

There was significant Russian shelling across many parts of the Donetsk Oblast, around Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Slovyansk and towards Kramatorsk. Russian shelling north of Kharkiv was more sporadic yesterday, with minimal changes on the ground.

On the ground, Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful assaults north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces are consolidating territorial and administrative control over Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Russian troops have attempted to advance through the Bakhmut-Lysychansk road.

Russian forces continue to make progress towards Siversk with heavy fighting west of Bilohorivka and around Hryhorivka.

Russian forces and private contractors made some steady gains southeast of Bakhmut with Russian air support and a number of missile strikes onto Ukrainian defences.

Fighting continues near Kramatorsk, while shelling continues along the entire front line.

Russian forces made minimal gains towards Slovyansk with Ukrainian air strikes and artillery fire.

There were no further Russian manoeuvres of significance out of Izyum which continues to be contained and attacked by Ukrainian forces.

Fighting was heavy to the west of Izyum today with Russian and Ukrainian Special Forces engaged in fierce clashes.

According to the National Resistance Center, a Ukrainian government website, Russia started preparing to forcibly conscript men into the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

North of Kherson there was heavy fighting and significant Russian artillery fire as Ukrainian forces on vulnerable low ground continued to evolve their Bridgehead across the Inhulets river.

4 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Belarusian dictator Alexandre Lukashenko said on Sunday his country stood fully behind Russia in its military drive in Ukraine as part of its longstanding commitment to a “union state” with Moscow.

Lukashenko's statement about a united Russia and Belarus army has raised concerns in Kyiv about the entry of Belarusian troops in Ukraine.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

At the theatre level, Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from Lysychansk to defensive positions, the last remaining city in Luhansk under Ukrainian control. Russia’s attention will now “almost certainly” shift to capturing Donetsk Oblast, a battle likely to be “grinding and attritional.” The Kremlin has continued to set conditions for the potential Russian annexation of proxy republics.

A number of missile impacts were reported with the majority of targets being military, but with civilian infrastructure also targeted in the south and northeast.

Russian and Ukrainian artillery exchanges have increased near Izyum, Slovyansk and Kherson in the south. Russian artillery fire remains significant around the Lysychansk and Bakhmut regions and is increasing towards Slovyansk.

On the ground, fighting around Kharkiv continues in the north and northwest.

Russian forces continue to secure Lysychansk and resupply routes making progress too on the highway to Bakhmut.

Russian units are now advancing towards Siversk with heavy fighting reported.

Russian forces launched a number of reconnaissance operations and small offensives south and southeast of Izyum towards Slovyansk.

Ukrainian forces attacked another Russian ammunition depot in the occupied regions in Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces north and northwest of Kherson made minimal gains yesterday securing one more settlement.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol.

3 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian media is framing unrest in Nukus, Uzbekistan as a coup d'etat attempt comparable to the events of Ukraine 2014, Belarus 2020 and Kazakhstan 2022.

There are increased concerns again regarding Belarus being pushed to enter the war with some threats yesterday from Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko claiming Ukrainian missiles had targeted one of his military facilities, but they were intercepted.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has claimed that Russia has completely "liberated" the Luhansk People's Republic.

A crossed the theatre of operations, Russian air/missile strikes have continued with impacts mostly reported in the south, southwest and northeast. Most launches were land based from occupied areas like Kherson.

Russian Close Air Support has increased significantly around Kherson in the last 48hrs aided by fine weather and improved Russian ground-air integration.

Russian shelling continues to be intensive around Lysychansk, Bakhmut, north of Popasna, towards Slovyansk and around Siversk. There were intensive periods of artillery exchanges north of Kharkiv and around Kherson.

Russian Air Defence Systems were activated overnight in Belgorod and Kursk with several large explosions reported and indications are they were targeted with Ukrainian missiles.

Russian MP Leonid Slutsky has vowed a "severe scale of punishment" for Ukraine's alleged strikes on Belgorod and Kursk.

Ukrainian forces hit a Russian base with more than 30 strikes in the Russian-occupied southern city of Melitopol in the region of Zaporizhia.

On the ground, North and northeast of Kharkiv Russian attacks on Ukrainian units are ongoing, but Ukrainian forces are fighting back with some success.

The Ukrainian military says it has been forced to withdraw from Lysychansk, the last city in the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine that was still under Ukrainian control.

Russia has captured Zolotarivka near Lysychansk, the village is the last settlement between the recently captured city and the border of Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River and are trying to seize a neighboring village of Bilohorivka, also in Luhansk Oblast.

Russia appears to have moved some forces 30 kilometres west to Seversk in Donestk.

Russia has fired rockets on Kramatorsk for two days in a row and carried out exceptionally intense shelling in Sloviansk. All in an early sign of Russia concentrating its capabilities in Donetsk.

Heavy fighting continues around Bakhmut and along various parts of the highway to Lysychansk.

There were some Russian attacks out of Izyum and Lyman yesterday under heavy Close Air Support, but offensives towards Slovyansk were repelled.

Further south there were some Russian manoeuvres east of Zaporizhia but with no result.

North of Kherson the Ukrainian counteroffensive made more ground retaking Ivanivka and other settlements along the Inhulets river towards the south.

2 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, NATO’s new strategic concept while painting Russian as the gravest threat faced by the alliance, essentially names China as the number two in a striking degradation of Chinese soft power in the US and its closest NATO allies.

It seems likely that a nuclear test by North Korea may be imminent and it is believed that North Korea is in the process of deploying tactical nuclear weapons to frontline units.

Leaders from dozens of countries and international organizations are scheduled to meet in Lugano, Switzerland next week to discuss a Marshall Plan for Ukraine.

Russia has deployed Bastion-P (Oniks) and Bal anti-ship missiles to Kalinigrad in Baltic. Bal has an effective range of around 70 nautical miles, with an improved version increasing this to 160 nautical miles. It fires the Kh-35 missile, known by the NATO reporting name SS-N-25 Switchblade. The K-300P Bastion-P (NATO: SSC-5 Stooge) is the land-based variant of the P-800 Oniks (NATO: SS-N-26 Strobile). This system has a longer range than Bal, around 190 nautical miles, and flies at Mach 2.5.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is reported to be whipping up fears of a NATO attack on Belarus to create a siege mentality at home and mentioned Gomel, the Luminets Air Base and Mozyr oil refinery as possible targets.

The Belarusian dictator went on to warn of a new Nazism in Europe and accused the Baltic States of engaging in Nazi practices of discrimination against ethnic Russians.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Across the Theatre of Operations Russian air/missile strikes continued with impacts reported across widespread areas, mostly in the southeast and south. Russian forces had fired missiles on cities and villages in the region, including Kharkiv, Izium, Chuhuiv, Bohodukhiv and Lozovsky areas. Russian troops fired ten Onyx missiles at Mykolaiv from the Russian-occupied territories in Kherson Oblast.

UK Defense Intelligence reportedly believes that the Russian missile fired at the Kremenchuk shopping mall in Ukraine was “likely” a Kh-32, an upgraded version of a Soviet-era anti-ship missile. The assessment went on to say that the Kh-32 “is not optimized to accurately strike ground targets,” increasing risk of hitting civilians. This is also likely indication that Russia is running low of its most advanced weapons systems.

Russian shelling continues to be at its most intensive around Lysychansk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk, but with sporadic intensive phases around Kharkiv. Russian troops fired at the northern Chuhuiv district, located in Kharkiv Oblast, and Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces continue shelling Mykolaiv Oblast, particularly, Bashtansky and Mykolaiv districts.

On the ground, Lviv’s defenses are to be strengthened after a threat of attack from Belarus. Defense headquarters are to be established in each city district, and additional training will be conducted for the local Territorial Defense units.

Russia conducted small offensives north of Kharkiv yesterday, but all were repelled. Russian forces withdrew from the village of Ivanivka in Kharkiv Oblast.

Fighting continues to be significant towards Bakhmut, around Lysychansk and towards Slovyansk with Russia making steady gains. Lysychansk and Bakhmut could fall into Russian hands within days.

Ukrainian forces have repelled a Russian offensive near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.

There were minimal Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum despite significant Close Air Support to try to do so.

South of Izyum Russian forces continue to launch multiple offensives to push towards Slovyansk. Almost continuous attacks on Bohorodychne and Krasnopillya were repelled.

Ukrainian forces made minimal gains northwest of Kherson yesterday, but some progress further north.

1 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, President Vladimir Putin has said that “unprecedented political and social pressure” from the West, and sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine are pushing Belarus to integrate much more quickly with Russia.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Across the Theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and this morning with most impacts in the south and southeast. Odesa and Mykolaiv were heavily targeted with civilian casualties.

A Russian missile struck a multi-storey apartment building near the Black Sea port of Odesa early on Friday, killing at least 14 people and wounding 30.

Russian shelling continues to be intensive around Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Slovyansk, and with some intensive phases reported north of Kharkiv.

On the ground, fighting north of Kharkiv and to the northeast has intensified with Russia pushing some Ukrainian units back and with Ukrainian forces responding with counter-attacks.

Moscow kept up its push to take control of Lysychansk on Thursday, the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in eastern Luhansk Oblast.

Significant fighting continued towards Bakhmut with heavy losses on both sides reported around the Dolomytne and Vuhledar Power Plant to the south.

Fighting continued towards Slovyansk yesterday with significant Russian airstrikes around Tetyanivka and Russian Close Air Support for more Airborne forces manoeuvring out of Izium to reinforce Russian offensives.

Russian attacks on Dolyna, Bohorodychne, Mazanivka and Krasnopillya all failed with losses.

Ukrainian forces launched a large counteroffensive south of Kryvyi Rih combined with Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian armour and artillery units. Russian forces have been pushed back.

Ukrainian forces around Kherson consolidated their positions, but made minimal gains yesterday in the face of strong Russian defenses.

To the east of Zaporizhia Ukrainian forces also conducted airstrikes on Russian positions, but Russian ADS here has been enhanced.

Canada has announced that it will transfer 39 armoured combat vehicles to Ukraine.

30 Jun 22

Striking an ominous note, Sergei Lavrov has declared a new Iron Curtain has formed between Russia and the West. An economic, informational and diplomatic blockade has crystallized between NATO states and Russia.

The European Union is close to reaching a compromise deal to defuse the crisis with Russia over Kaliningrad as trade through Lithuania could return to normal within days.

Russian MP Viktor Gurulev has warned that Vilnius could become Vilna again. Vilna is the Russian Empire-era name for Vilnius in a clear threat of a Russian invasion of Lithuania over the Kaliningrad blockade.

US President Joe Biden thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for resolving differences with Finland and Sweden so the two Nordic countries could become NATO candidates.

Biden endorsed Turkey's purchase of F-16 fighter planes from the United States provided that it receives Congressional backing.

Biden said he would deploy more troops, planes and warships across Europe as NATO agreed the biggest strengthening of its deterrents since the Cold War in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Spain has announced plans to increase its defence spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2029.

Canada and Russia have disputing claims in the Arctic. But unlike other NATO member states defence spending as a percentage of GDP in Canada has dropped to 1.27 percent of GDP with Canadian allies now questioning how we will live up to our NATO rapid reaction force and Latvia commitments.

Germany is poised to maintain a permanent military presence in the Baltic Sea with some 15,000 troops and 20 naval units as Germany plays an increasingly key role in supporting Lithuania against Russian aggression.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Russian air/missile strikes have continued across the theatre of operations but were significantly fewer than in recent days and mostly in the south and southeast.

Russian shelling continued to be significant around Lysychansk, towards Slovyansk and north of Kherson.

On the ground, Ukrainian forces have conducted further operations targeting Snake Island and Russian forces have now evacuated the Island giving Ukraine a strategic victory in the Black Sea region. The loss of Snake Island deprives Russia of a key base from which to strike Odesa and Moldova and to control the waters off the coast of Odesa.

Around Kharkiv Russian forces conducted some offensives and secured Dementiivka North of Kharkiv. Fighting has increased north of Kharkiv.

Significant fighting continues around Lysychansk and towards Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces continue to put pressure on the Russian units from the west of Izium while Russian conducted minor offensive operations out of Izium.

Russian forces made minimal gains towards Slovyansk and moved units towards Kryvyi Rih but not in any strength to move on city.

Evidence suggests twin Russian air strikes deliberately targeted a theatre used as a shelter in Mariupol.

East of Zaporizhia near the Huliapole area there was increased Russian artillery activity and a Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway.

Ukrainian forces around Kherson consolidated their positions, but made minimal gains yesterday in the face of strong Russian defenses.

29 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Avril Haines, the US Director of National Intelligence, said on June 29th that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had not changed his goal to seize most of Ukraine. She said the intelligence community assesses that it will take “years” for the Russian military to recover from the damage it has sustained in carrying out its war in Ukraine. Haines warned we anticipate that they're going to be more reliant on asymmetric tools now such as cyberattacks, their efforts to try to control energy, and nuclear weapons, in order to try to manage and project power and influence globally.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the eve of NATO’s annual summit called for member states to boost their military spending in an increasingly “unpredictable” and “dangerous” world.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this week the organization would put 300,000 troops on high alert, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. More than 40,000 troops are currently under NATO command.

The US Department of Defense said the US will "permanently forward station" the V Corps headquarters and field support battalion in Poland.

The new NATO Strategic Concept document defines Russia as the “most significant and direct threat” to Allies’ security, while addressing China for the first time and the challenges that Beijing poses toward Allies’ security, interests and values. The documents also states that climate change is “a defining challenge of our time”.

NATO Madrid Summit Declaration has said, "Today, we have decided to invite Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO, and agreed to sign the Accession Protocols.”

Ihor Zhovkva, a deputy head of the President's Office and the head of Ukraine's delegation at NATO's summit in Madrid, said that NATO membership remains the best security guarantee for Ukraine. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine drop plans to join NATO as a requirement for a peace deal.

Britain is to commit 1,000 extra troops to Estonia (where there are already 2,000) and a carrier to the defence of NATO borders. The Defence Secretary said "we are going to allocate a brigade" and "dedicate one of the carrier groups to it".

It was reported that Britain's role in facilitating third party NATO arms transfers to Ukraine is growing. Britain's pledge of tanks to Poland in late April, facilitated the movement of artillery to Ukraine, and it is now helping Norway supply long-range rocket systems to Ukraine.

Russia has launched a cyberattack targeting public and private institutions in Norway.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

On the ground, Russian forces are continuing to engage in offensive operations north of Kharkiv City, indicating that the Kremlin has territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Lysychansk.

Russian forces made marginal gains east of Bakhmut along the E40 highway.

Russian forces continued offensive operations to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast.

In the south the Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro are creeping forward as they get closer to fixed Russia’s defences.

Russian forces intensified artillery strikes against Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis. Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.

A Russian missile strike killed three people and injured five in the port city of Mykolaiv on Wednesday.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhzhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

Russian forces may be planning a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

28 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, US President Joe Biden plans to announce an extension of US troop presence in Poland and changes to US deployments in several Baltic nations that he authorized ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials are reportedly preparing to ask NATO nations to do more to deter possible Russian chemical and nuclear attacks amid Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as the 30-nation alliance holds a summit meeting in Spain this week.

Turkey has come to an agreement with Sweden and Finland that paves the way for them to join NATO.

The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday on Russia’s targeting of civilians, with the Kremenchuk attack being “the main focus.”

Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev said, “Any encroachment on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula by a NATO member state could amount to a declaration of war on Russia which could lead to “World War III.”

Medvedev warned that Russia would apply asymmetric measures against Lithuania over its blockade of Kaliningrad. Killnet's cyberattack on Lithuania is not a coincidence but a harbinger of Russia's next steps.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Across the theatre of operations, the military balance in Ukraine, and particularly the Donbas favors Russia. Long term trends including the potential for a protracted insurgency favour Ukraine. But this is contingent on sustained Western military assistance, and the likelihood this will be a protracted war. Both sides have made incremental gains, neither is near collapse, and both seemingly lack the forces for a major breakthrough. Russia launched intensified waves of strikes across Ukraine using long-range missiles over the past several days. In the Donbas the Russian military now threatens to sever the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk pocket. As time goes on the battle over Donbas is proving important but not decisive for Ukraine at this point in time. Kherson is where a future UKrainian counter offensive could play out and economically and strategically Kherson is more significant to Ukraine than the Donbas and the place to watch.

On the ground, Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around Kharkiv City.

Russian forces and Moscow-backed separatists now control part of an oil refinery in Lysychansk and Russian forces are storming the town from the west and southwest.

Ukrainian troops continue to consolidate their positions on higher ground in the city of Lyschansak, after retreating from Sieverodonetsk.

If successful, Russian forces will eventually run into a Ukrainian defensive line at Bakhmut-Siversk.

Ukrainian forces positions around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk remain heavily fortified.

Russian forces have not had much success pushing from Izium.

Over the past month Russian forces struggled to break out of Popasna.

The Russian goal in Donbas is a battle for Slovyansk/Kramatorsk, with an axis of advance from Izyum and another from the east, assuming they are able to get past Bakhmut.

In the south the Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro are creeping forward as they get closer to fixed Russia’s defences.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

27 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Leaders from the G7 held their first day of meetings, in which four nations backed a ban on Russian gold, although it is unclear whether there is a consensus yet. Zelenskyy is set to join the summit of G-7 leaders in southern Germany on Monday via video call.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has set off for the NATO Summit in Madrid tomorrow alongside POTUS to talk about Russia's war in Ukraine and NATO's new strategic concept.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced Monday, ahead of of a gathering of NATO leaders in Madrid on Tuesday, that the alliance's high-readiness forces will significantly increase to over 300,000 from 40,000, and that more troops will be sent to the member countries bordering Russia.

Russia's Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy just called the Kremenchuk shopping mall attack a Bucha-style provocation. Russia has accused Ukraine on concocting a Russian attack in Kremenchuk to whip up pro-Ukraine sentiments ahead of the NATO summit.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine would respond appropriately to any threats from Transnistria. Russian media is already sounding the alarm about potential Ukrainian aggression towards Transnistria.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

At the theatre level, Zelenskyy said his country needs a more modern air defence system after a series of attacks on the capital, Kyiv, as well as the regions of Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Lviv.

Russia fired 60 missiles against the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, Lviv, and Chernihiv over the weekend.

Russia’s missile attack on Kremenchuk mall has left 12 dead and 24 people hospitalized.

A senior US Defense official has said Russia has changed military tactics in Ukraine after early failings in the battle of Kyiv, relying more heavily on ranged artillery and missile strikes.

According to the Institute for the Study of War The Russian high command has continued to find ways to conduct a covert mobilization of reserve forces without going into a General Mobilization for war. Russian forces are likely running low on senior military leaders and are relying more heavily on retired officers and reserves to replace officer casualties. The UK Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces will likely rely heavily on reserve echelons, namely the Combat Army Reserve (BARS) and Human Mobilization Resource, in order to fill out the third Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) within regular brigades.

On the ground, Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around Kharkiv City.

Russian forces have entered Lysychansk from five directions and were isolating Ukrainian defenders.

Russian forces have made incremental advances southwest of Lysychansk near the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but have not entirely severed Ukrainian lines of communication into Bakhmut.

Russian forces made measured advances during offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives north of Slovyansk.

In the south the Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro are also loosing momentum as they get closer to fixed Russia’s defences.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

26 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian media is reportedly spreading the conspiracy that Poland has sent at least 2 battalions of soldiers to Ukraine and is preparing for a general invasion of Ukraine.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has warned that Moldova can only join the EU as part of a new greater Romania in a move that complements Moscow's narrative about Romanian aggression towards Transnistria.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko described Lithuania's Kaliningrad blockade as a declaration of war with Russia. Belarus has singled out Poland and Lithuania as aggressive actors, and Lukashenko highlighted Polish "mercenaries" in Ukraine during his meeting with Putin as an example.

Sergei Shoigu was recorded visiting Russian troops in Ukraine and it does appear to confirm that Aleksandr Dvornikov has been ousted as Commander of all Russian Forces in Ukraine and that Deputy Defense Minister and Commander the Main Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces Colonel-General Gennady Zhitko is commanding the Russian war effort. Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the Russian military chain of command in Ukraine as Commander of all Russian forces, Gennady Zhidko, Commander of Central grouping, Alexander Lapin, and

Commander of Southern grouping Sergey Surovikin.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Russia is increasing its military presence in Belarus. According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate, Russia plans to increase the number of operational and tactical aircraft in Belarus, claiming it's needed to conduct drills.

In the theatre of operations, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions. Russia has carried out high precision strikes on army training centers in Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Lviv. These attacks, combined with the central Kyiv strike, suggests that Russia’s nationwide war with Ukraine continues and that its war aim is still total victory and seizure of Ukraine. Russian forces missile strike against Kyiv is the first time since April 29th. Russian missiles are now striking cities outside of Donbas that have so far been largely unscathed by the war including Cherkasy. The aim appears to create an aura of unpredictability around Russia's next moves and strike a bridge on the Dnipro River. Russia forces have fired on Zelenodolsk, Dnipropetrovsk from multiple rocket launchers.

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reports that defensive positions in the Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts were fired upon from Russian territory.

On the ground, British intelligence has reportedly called Russia's victory in Sieverodonetsk significant and believes Russia's next goals in Donbas are to conquer Kramatorsk and secure the main supply routes to Donetsk.

Russian forces continued attacks against the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and consolidated control of Sieverodonetsk and surrounding settlements.

Russian forces are conducting operations to the east of Bakhmut to maintain control of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.

Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults to the northwest of Slovyansk.

Ukrainian partisan activity is continuing to complicate efforts by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control of occupied areas.

In the south the Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro are also loosing momentum as they get closer to fixed Russia’s defences.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

Russian officials in occupied Crimea claimed that Ukraine's Armed Forces hit the oil drilling rigs of Ukraine's Chornomornaftogaz enterprise in the Black Sea for the second time in a week.

25 Jun 22

US President Joe Biden has left the White House for a week of diplomacy at the G7 and NATO summits in which he hopes to reinforce the Western alliance against Russia and look to challenges from China.

According to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Moscow will reportedly give Iskander-M nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missile systems in the coming months. Beyond nuclear capable missiles, Russia will help Belarus secure fighter jets that can carry nuclear weapons. Putin's upgrade of Belarus's Su-25s in Russia are noteworthy, especially in light of increased tensions with Poland and Lithuania, and Finland's NATO membership.

An overnight airstrike on Ukraine from Belarus is a clear Russian attempt to draw Belarus into war. Six Russian Tu-22M bombers launched 12 missiles from Belarus, targeting Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts. Two missile strikes hit civilian infrastructure in Rivne Oblast.

Alexander Lukashneko announced plans to increase Belarus's position in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Belarus is currently an observer but there have been persistent reports that it is planning to apply for full-scale SCO membership.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until today. The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

In the theatre of operations, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.

Russian continues to slightly expand the scope of its Close Air Support with most of this focused around Bakhmut, Popasna and south of Lysychansk.

There was further heavy Russian shelling around Kharkiv yesterday and north of Kherson in the south. Russian artillery fire into the Sumy region in the north has also increased dramatically.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the leadership of its central and southern groups of forces fighting Ukraine has changed.

Russia has reportedly removed two key military figures Colonel-General Andrei Serdyukov, Commander Airborne Forces and General Aleksandr Dvornikov, Commander Southern Military District from operational command roles.

On the ground, Russia is reportedly using its reserve forces in a covert mobilisation to replenish its ranks in eastern Ukraine and there is no point in simply waiting for its offensive potential to fizzle out wane.

Russia’s shelling has damaged the subcritical nuclear reactor in Kharkiv.

Russian forces continued positional battles north of Kharkiv City.

Russia has gained full control of the strategic city of Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast.

South of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian soldiers have retreated from the towns of Hirske and Zolote in the face of overwhelming Russian forces.

Lysychansk is set to become the next main focus of fighting. Pro-Russian leader says it would take another week and a half to secure full control of Lysychansk.

Russian troops and allies entered Lysychansk and street fighting is underway in the eastern Ukrainian city which neighbours its strategic twin Sievierodonetsk.

Russian forces made measured gains to the north and southeast of Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to advance southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk.

Ukraine’s general staff said its troops had some success in the southern Kherson region forcing the Russians back from defensive positions near the village of Olhine.

Russian forces attempted to strengthen their defensive lines and recapture lost positions on the Southern Axis.

24 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Poland has reportedly asked NATO to increase its security presence in the Suwalki Gap. Additional fortification of the Suwalki Gap would benefit Lithuania's security as tensions mount between Russia and Lithuania over Kaliningrad.

Russia is using retired military personnel working as Wagner Group contractors to conduct close air support, a sign that Russia is struggling to field aircrews for the war in Ukraine.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.

Russian continues to slightly expand the scope of its Close Air Support with most of this focused around Bakhmut, Popasna and south of Lysychansk.

There was further heavy Russian shelling around Kharkiv yesterday and north of Kherson in the south. Russian artillery fire into the Sumy region in the north has also increased dramatically.

Russian Tank, Airborne and HQ units have broken free of Ukrainian defensive positions around Izium to reinforce the offensives on Sievierodonetsk and then next Slovyansk.

Significant Russian artillery fire and missile strikes continues towards Slovyansk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk.

A senior US Defense Official has warned that Russia has suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses in Ukraine that is slowing down the Donbas campaign. The Russian forces are showing the signs of "wear and tear" and "debilitated morale" that is limiting troops from moving forward. Russia remains behind schedule in its original military plan in Ukraine to be “thoroughly dominating” the country at this point.

Russia's impending capture of Sieverodonetsk gives it another foothold by the Siversky Donets River. It remains unclear whether Russia can cross the river without heavy losses of manpower and artillery

Ukrainian forces are conducting a classic, organized withdrawal from positions in Sieverodonetsk is an effort to get into a position where they can defend themselves.

Russia's assault on Lysychansk in Luhansk received another boost today when the district of Hirske-Zolote south of Lysychansk fell into Russian hands and have likely encircled Ukrainian troops in the area.

It is likely both Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk will fall to Russia in the coming days.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to launch counteroffensive operations along the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are threatening Russian forces in Kherson City.

Ukrainian partisans continued to attack Russian collaborators in Kherson City.

23 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, the US is reportedly hopeful there will soon be a positive resolution to disputes between Turkey, Finland and Sweden regarding the NATO accession bids of the two Nordic countries.

Leaders from the G7 and the NATO alliance will reportedly seek to increase pressure on Russia over its war in Ukraine at meetings next week, while making clear that they remain concerned about China.

Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on June 23rd that Russia and Belarus would strengthen their military cooperation.

Belarus could reportedly be ready to provide Russia with weapons as equipment of the Belarusian military is currently being serviced and removed from storage.

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

At the theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.

Russian air activity increased yesterday in the south and southeast. Russian air activity continues to be high around Bakhmut, Izium and south of Lysychansk where Russian forces continue to attempt to make gains and several airstrikes were conducted yesterday.

Russian shelling was also intensive in these areas and towards Slovyansk. There were phases of intensive shelling north of Kharkiv again yesterday and north of Kherson. Elsewhere Russian shelling was more sporadic.

On the ground, fighting around Kharkiv continued as Russian forces attempted to push Ukrainian forces further away from the border areas and their key resupply route south to Izium.

Russian forces resumed pounding Ukraine’s second-biggest city Kharkiv close to the Russian border.

Russian manoeuvres out of Izium continue to be constrained by Ukrainian forces

Russian forces shelled the village of Pechenihy on the night and morning of June 23rd. The attack destroyed multiple houses.

Russian forces fire on 14 settlements in Donetsk Oblast and damaged or destroyed 25 buildings.

Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting street to street in Severodonetsk and in a around the chemical plant. Russian forces are also attacking the nearby settlements of Zolote and Vovchoyrovka, and captured Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka to the south.

According to the UK Defence Ministry Russians forces have advanced over 5 kilometres towards the city of Lysychansk since June 19th. "Russian forces are putting the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk pocket under increasing pressure."

Russian troops occupied the villages of Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka on June 22nd and heavy fighting continues in the Luhansk region.

Russian forces are continuing efforts to encircle the Ukrainian grouping in Hirske and Zolote and are likely moving to take control of these settlements.

There was some Russian activity out of Lyman towards Slovyansk, but Russian forces are consolidating with the arrival of Airborne units for an pending offensive onto Slovyansk.

Russian forces have likely successfully interdicted Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 highway and are using recent gains along the highway to reinforce assaults on Lysychansk.

Russian forces made some minor gains around Popasna towards Bakhmut.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Valentyn Reznichenko said Russian troops attacked Kryvyi Rih District overnight on June 23rd damaging residential buildings.

Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.

Three Russian missiles targeted the southern city of Mykolaiv's industrial and civilian infrastructure.

There is continued reported partisan attacks within Kherson with an IED attack on a Russian Military Commander’s car and another against a Government Building. There were also explosions in the occupied port of Skadovsk with a large fire in fuel storage area.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

22 Jun 22

The Russian Foreign Ministry has warned that its response to Lithuania's Kaliningrad blockade will be practical and not exclusively diplomatic suggesting trade disruptions or an increased militarization in Kaliningrad and on Russia's borders with the Baltic States.

According to the Finnish Chief of Defense Staff General Timo Kivinen, Finland is prepared for the type of warfare that is being waged in Ukraine and Finland is ready to fight Russia if attacked.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Ukraine President Zelensky has warned that Russia is pressing towards Donetsk and that several Donbas villages have fallen as Sieverodonetsk struggles to withstand Russia's assault. He also warned that Russia is launching an intensified two-pronged assault on Donetsk and Kharkiv.

At the theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.

Russian air activity increased yesterday in the south and southeast. There was an increase in Russian Close Air Support and airstrikes around Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut. They also carried out several airstrikes on seven villages near the city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast.

Russian shelling was intense and focused on Lysychansk, Slovyansk and Bakhmut. Sporadic shelling occurred on Ukrainian units north of Kharkiv, near Mykolaiv, north of Kherson and across parts of the southeast.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that The Russian military is keeping up to three Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) and units of airborne troops in the Bryansk and Kursk regions bordering Ukraine.

On the ground, there was no significant changes around Kharkiv other than Ukrainian forces now attacking areas near the Russian resupply corridor northeast and southeast of the city.

Russian shelling killed at least 15 civilians in the eastern Kharkiv region on Tuesday, including five in the city of Kharkiv.

British intelligence reportedly believes that Russia is trying to encircle Sieverodonetsk with positions in Izyum and Popasna. Russia will then push mobilized reservists into the area and use reservists to achieve territorial gains in Donbas.

The UK Defense Ministry has warned that Russia is ‘highly likely’ preparing to try to deploy multiple reserve units to Donbas. It went on to caution that generating and deploying reserve units to the front is “likely to become critical to the outcome of the war,” on both sides.

Ukrainian officials have announced the fall of the front-line village Toshkivka, near the strategically important cities of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely reach the city in the coming days.

Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor advances.

Russian forces intensified efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support Russian operations towards Lysychansk.

Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

Ukraine has reportedly carried out a successful missile strike on a Russian oil or gas platform in the Black Sea.

21 Jun 22

In another case of nuclear blackmail, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said on June 21st that Russia would further strengthen its armed forces, “taking into account potential threats and risks”. Russia’s newest nuclear-capable ICBM Sarmat will be deployed for duty this year. The Sarmat super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile is capable of carrying ten or more nuclear warheads and decoys.

At the grand strategic level, Russia warned NATO member state Lithuania that unless it lifts a blockade on the transit of goods to Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast on the Baltic Sea, Moscow will take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

It was reported that up to seven Belarusian battalions are concentrated near Ukrainian border. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said that these battalions comprise 3,500 to 4,000 personnel, and there are also Russian troops deployed in Belarus. The Belarusian Army is 60,000 strong.

At the theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes have continued and were again widespread with impacts reported across several regions.

Russian air activity increased yesterday in the south and southeast. There was an increase in Russian Close Air Support and airstrikes around Sievierodonetsk and Bakhmut.

On the ground, there was no significant changes around Kharkiv other than Ukrainian forces now attacking areas near the Russian resupply corridor northeast and southeast of the city.

Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai reportedly said that Ukraine controlled only the Azot plant in the strategic city of Sievierodonetsk and that fierce fighting was now concentrated in the industrial area of the city.

Russian forces are reported to be advancing toward Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast. Heavy fighting is taking place in the settlements of Mykolaivka, Vershyna and Semyhiria around Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces made some gains southwest of Popasna yesterday, but there were no significant movements out of Izium or Lyman.

The Russian units moving towards Slovyansk made some further gains and moved into Dolyna where there was heavy fighting.

North of Kherson Ukrainian forces made minimal progress in their counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro with Russian units in well defended positions repelling the Ukrainians.

In the south Russian continues to consolidate positions east of Zaporizhia as Ukrainian forces advance into counteroffensive positions.

It was reported that Russian forces suffered “significant losses” after a Ukrainian attack on Snake Island.

UK Defense Ministry has noted that Ukrainian coastal defense forces have neutralized Russia's attempts at sea control. The ministry said in an update Ukraine’s first claimed success of using Western-donated Harpoons almost certainly destroyed a Russian vessel on a resupply mission to Snake Island. Russian warships patrolling the area are usually station just outside of Harpoon Range.

20 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Finland has removed the statue of Vladimir Lenin from Kotka to a museum out of respect for the memory of Finnish soldiers who perished at war with the Soviet Union.

Threats of an armed Russian invasion of Lithuania are proliferating in the Russian media over Lithuania’s enactment of EU border sanctions with regard to Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast.

Thousands of people in Tbilisi have turned out to demonstrate for a closer relationship with the European Union, days after the European Commission recommended deferring Georgia’s candidacy.

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen expressed confidence that Ukraine will be granted official candidate status ahead of a key EU summit in Brussels later this month.

British Chief of the General Staff has warned that the UK must have a military capable of fighting in Europe and defeating Russia.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Russian air/missile/ artillery strikes continued across widespread regions of Ukraine. Russian air/missile attacks were slightly increased with the majority of impacts in the south central and southeast regions.

UK Defense Intelligence has said that Russia’s failure to consistently deliver air power in Ukraine is likely one of the key factors behind Moscow’s limited success in the four-month war. Russia still has not gained full air superiority over Ukraine.

On the ground, Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to clash northwest/north of Kharkiv, but there are no indications of major Russian offensives imminent.

Russian forces continued to focus on resisting further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City towards the international border.

Russia has reportedly ordered its forces to reach the Luhansk borders by Sunday.

This massive mobilization of Russian troops is aimed at breaking the Ukrainian army's resistance in Sievierodonetsk.

Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Sievierodonetsk with the exception of the Azot industrial zone.

Russian forces are likely intensifying operations to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support escalating operations in Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk.

Russian sources are setting information conditions to justify unsuccessful advances towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izium and west of Lyman.

Fighting continues to be intensive southwest of Popasna where Russia made gains.

Russian forces are continuing defensive operations along the Southern Axis.

Ukrainian partisan activity is continuing to complicate efforts by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control of occupied areas.

In the south the Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro are also loosing momentum as they get closer to fixed Russia’s defences.

Russian forces conducted seperate manoeuvres in the direction of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv moving artillery units closer to both and conducting sporadic shelling on Ukrainian units to contain them.

Russia fired 14 missiles on southern Ukraine today. Russia is keeping the pressure on Odesa as it explores reviving the Kharkiv battlefront.

Crimea head Sergei Aksyonov has claimed that Ukraine has launched a missile strike off drilling platforms in Crimea. If true this would be a threat to Russia's oil and gas interests in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. It could also form the pretext for Russian strikes on Ukraines energy infrastructure in the Black Sea.

19 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview with German newspaper Bild am Sonntag that Russia’s war against Ukraine could last years. “We must prepare for the fact that it could take years.” The fear is increasingly that the war will fall off Western media and public attention as it did with Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has seen Western interest wane before in a group of frozen wars on its border with NATO and his calculation is that when we focus on something else he will have a free hand in Central Europe.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

Three Russian missiles destroyed a fuel storage depot in the eastern town of Novomoskovsk.

On the ground there are signs Russian units are manoeuvring in the southeast to try and reinforce offensives in this region and reenergise the momentum, and weapons and vehicles continue to arrive by rail into Belgorod as Russia continues to regenerate reinforcements.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to clash northwest/north of Kharkiv, but there are no indications of major Russian offensives imminent.

Ukraine has warned that Russia is making advances towards northern Kharkiv and Kharkiv could once again be a front line for shelling. Russia's offensive operations on the outskirts of Izium also point to a revival of the Kharkiv front. Ukrainian forces do continue to effectively fix Russian units in and around Izium diluting their capabilities in the region.

Russian troops also continue their offensive push in Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast, to gain full control of the city.

Metolkine has been a key battleground in Sievierodonetsk between Russia and Ukraine and it now appears as if Russia has at least temporarily gained the upper hand in Metolkine.

Russian offensives towards Lysychansk, Slovyansk and Bakhmut yesterday were all repelled.

Russian shelling continued to be intensive around Lysychansk.

Ukraine’s General Staff has said Ukrainian troops have reportedly repelled a Russian attack near Berestove, Donetsk Oblast. Russia is preparing for an offensive towards the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast.

Fighting continues to be intensive southwest of Popasna where Russia made gains.

In the south the Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Kherson and the Dnipro are also loosing momentum as they get closer to fixed Russia’s defences.

Russian forces conducted seperate manoeuvres in the direction of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv moving artillery units closer to both and conducting sporadic shelling on Ukrainian units to contain them.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said that 28 Kalibr missiles are ready for combat, placed upon two surface ships and three submarines.

18 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered military training for Ukrainian forces as he met Zelenskyy in Kyiv on his second visit to Ukraine since the start of the war.

Canada has provided Ukraine with a $733 million loan for social and humanitarian expenditures.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of colonial arrogance and trying to crush his country with “stupid” sanctions that amounted to an economic “blitzkrieg”.

Belarusian dictator Lukashenko has declared that Belarus will protect western Ukraine from Poland: "We cannot allow the Poles to encircle us at all.

The Armed Forces of Belarus has expanded military exercises until at least June 25th.

The previous exercises were scheduled to stop at the end of May.

On the ground, UK Defense Intelligence has warned that Russia has renewed attempts to advance south of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. According to the British Defense Ministry, Russia’s goal is to advance deeper into Donetsk Oblast, as well as to “envelop the Sievierodonetsk Pocket from the north.”

Russian Far East Military District reserves have reportedly been deployed near Urazovo including 90 main battle tanks , 200 BMPs, 100 artillery pieces, and 20 multiple launch rocket systems with some 15-17 new Battalion Tactical Groups (BGTs) near Izium; 13 BGTs at Liman.

Russian air/missile/ artillery strikes continued across widespread regions but reportedly continue to be at a less significant number than usual.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to clash northwest/north of Kharkiv, but there are no indications of major Russian offensives imminent.

The Russian military has shelled a gas processing plant near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. According to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Synehubov, several missiles hit the plant, causing a massive fire.

Russia is stepping up military operations south of Izium in eastern Ukraine. This will give Russia greater military leverage in Donetsk and allow them to seal off Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk from the north.

Russia has declared humanitarian corridors in Sievierodonetsk as it did in Ilovaisk, Idlib and Mariupol where they used these routes to target civilians.

Heavy fighting continued in and around Sievierodonetsk with some reports of a Ukrainian counterattack.

Russians have had a ‘partial success’ in Metolkine, Luhansk Oblast. Russian troops also tried to cross the Siversky Donets river and attack neighboring settlements.

Russian shelling continues to be intensive on and around Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Slovyansk and southwest of Popasna.

There continues to be significant fighting southwest of Popasna and to its east towards Bakhmut. The Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway is reportedly still under the control of Ukrainian forces.

Russian missiles hit Kryvy Rih and the Inhuletsky neighborhood of the city causing great damage.

In the south northwest of Kherson the Ukrainian bridgehead across the inhulets has been reinforced and Ukrainian forces continue to press east and southeast. Russian forces are in well defended, dug in positions, minimising Ukrainian gains.

In the south Russian artillery fire continues to target Ukrainian resupply and communications lines around Mykolaiv and interrupt the Ukrainian counteroffensives north and northeast of Kherson.

Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, while undertaking defensive measures to strengthen Russian presence in the Black Sea.

In the Black Sea Ukrainian forces reportedly fired two missiles at a Russian Navy Rescue Tug named Vasily Bekh. The vessel was near Snake Island and it was significantly damaged and later sunk.

17 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has reiterated his line about the West's post-Cold War recklessness from his infamous 2007 Munich Speech when he said, "The US declared victory in the Cold War as [did] London, and later came to think of themselves as gods on planet Earth, who have no duties, only interest."

The European Commission has recommended that Georgia be denied EU candidate status later this month, while stating that Ukraine and Moldova should be offered immediate candidacy to join the bloc.

Denmark has summoned the Russia's ambassador after a Russian warship violated its territorial waters.

Britain has proposed a massive upgrade of training of Ukrainian forces. This will eventually lead to Britain training up to 10,000 forces every 120 days.

On the ground, Ukrainian lines of communication are now been fractured as the Luhansk Pocket slowly gets squeezed closed. Russian air/missile/artillery strikes continued across widespread regions yesterday and this morning. Russian shelling continues sporadically across much of the southeast and parts of the south, around Kharkiv in the east and in the northern Sumy region. Russian shelling around Bakhmut, Lysychansk, Slovyansk and Sievierodonetsk continues to be intensive at times. In summary, we may be coming to the final stages of the Battle for the Donbas and momentum appears to be moving slowly to Russian Forces. The situation remains fluid.

Russian troops continue to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing to the border with Russia. Ukrainian and Russian forces clashed again yesterday northeast of Kharkiv.

Ukrainian forces liberate village near Russian-occupied Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast.

There were minimal Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum where Ukrainian forces continue to press forward on the western flank.

In Sievierodonetsk fighting continues with elements of Russian and Chechen SOF now operating in the industrial area and Azot Chemical Plant facing heavy Ukrainian resistance.

There was significant Russian manoeuvres around Popasna yesterday and towards Bakhmut and Lysychansk. Small Russian units are reportedly making advances into new parts and are slowly securing strategic intersections and parts of crucial resupply roads.

UK Defense Intelligence has warned that Russian forces “likely” continued to attempt to regain momentum on the Popasna axis in the past 24 hours, in an attempt to gain a foothold to surround the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on June 17 that the Ukrainian military pushed Russian forces out of the village of Dmytrivka.

There was intensive fighting north of the Luhan river, the reservoirs, and around both power stations with several Russian advances here. If any of the dams on the Dnieper River System are destroyed by either side it could be potential catastrophic for anyone on low ground.

There was Russian offensives towards Slovyansk with minimal gains made. Russian activity out of Lyman was minimal due to Ukrainian resistance.

In the south Russian artillery fire continues to target Ukrainian resupply and communications lines around Mykolaiv and interrupt the Ukrainian counteroffensives north and northeast of Kherson.

Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, while undertaking defensive measures to strengthen Russian presence in the Black Sea.

Ukraine War Daily Summary

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