Ukraine War Daily Summary

15 Jun 22

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia still hasn’t abandoned its maximalist goals in Ukraine when he said

“The question is: who said that in two years Ukraine might exist on the world map at all?”

At the grand strategic level, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the West to send more modern anti-missile systems.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is set to lead a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday with Defence Ministers from NATO and other countries to discuss weapon deliveries to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on June 15th that President Volodymyr Zelensky will be invited to address NATO leaders at the alliance's summit in Madrid on June 28-29th.

Canada is sending 10 replacement barrels to Ukraine to maintain distance range and accuracy of the M777 howitzer artillery guns sent by Ottawa.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south.

In 2020, the US initiated a 4 year $38 million program to strengthen Ukraine's cyber capabilities and Ukraine's cyber defences have fared well against Russian attacks since the invasion began.

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley has said Russia has lost 20-30 percent of its armored force deployed in Ukraine since the start of the war.

Ukraine's Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Yenin says that Ukraine thwarted a terrorist attack against its political leadership in Kyiv and that there remains a continued risk of decapitation strikes against Ukrainian officials by Russian forces with control of Kyiv still a major Russian objective.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukrainian forces are suffering painful losses in fighting Russian troops in Sievierodonetsk and the Kharkiv region.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod and to prevent Ukraine from interdicting Russian supply lines to the Donbas offensive.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to fight in northeastern settlements around Kharkiv City.

Russian forces launched ground assaults in Sievierodonetsk and settlements in its vicinity but have not taken full control over the city.

Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations around the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in an effort to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication to Lysychansk.

Russian forces continued efforts to advance along the E40 highway to Slovyansk and southeast of Izyum.

Russian troops shelled Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Uragan rocket launchers. According to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Valentyn Reznichenko, the attack hit residential areas in the Zelenodolsk and Apostolovo towns in Kryvyi Rih District.

Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, while undertaking defensive measures to strengthen Russian presence in the Black Sea.

Russia has shelled a residential neighbourhood in Mykolaiv.

14 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia would "go further" than his country's eastern Donbas region if given the chance, as he appealed for more weaponry from NATO nations.

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces are also conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in an attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas.

Russian forces are now in control of most of Sieverodonetsk the epicenter of the bloody battle for Ukraine's eastern Donbas.

The Russian military is also using artillery to attack the villages of Vidrodzhennia, Novoluhanske, and Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops tried to storm the town of Zolote in Luhansk Oblast and settlements near the Russian-occupied Rubizhne. They also tried to seize the village of Berestove in Donetsk Oblast but the attack was repelled by Ukrainian troops.

Russia attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Uragan rocket launchers, damaging civilian homes.

There was minimal shelling exchanges around Kherson yesterday. Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaging in ongoing fighting for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces have been heavily reinforcing their units in their regional Forward Operating Base near Huliaipole and some units have been pushing towards Zaporizhzhia on this front with concerns an offensive on Zaporizhzhia may be planned.

13 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Russia is erecting barbed wire deeper into Georgia’s territory near Zardiaantkari in a slow motion occupation that is largely ignored by the media.

Ukraine will reportedly request 1,000 howitzers and 500 tanks from NATO. Ukraine is also planning to request 200-300 multiple rocket launchers, 2,000 armored vehicles, and 1,000 drones from NATO.

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces have made gains in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that make up the Donbas, controlling more than 95 percent of the Luhansk and about half of the Donetsk.

Russian forces control the entire Sea of Azov coast, including the strategic port of Mariupol, the entire Kherson region and gateway to Crimea, and a large chunk of the Zaporizhia region that could be the spring board for a further push deeper into Ukraine. The goal is to seize Odesa and the territory to the Romanian border including Moldova.

UK Defense Intelligence believes that Russia is going to have to complete flanking actions or conduct contested river crossings to succeed in its Donbas operations. The Siverskyy Donets River is a key strategic barrier to Russia's offensive in Donbas. Russia has struggled to execute credible river crossings in the past.

Russian reservists being rushed into the fight are reportedly being given old D-20 Soviet-era howitzers, T-62 main battle tanks dating to 1961, T-80BV main battle tanks produced in 1985 and phased out BMP-1 armored personnel carriers.

If Russia fails in the East of the country it can put further offensives in the southwest of the country at risk. If Ukraine falls in the Donbas and South Coast of the Black Sea falls all of Central Ukraine is vulnerable to invasion and Kyiv is at risk again.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russian forces are also conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in an attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas.

Russia has now destroyed all bridges leading to Sievierodonetsk including a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River, which links the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, cutting off a possible evacuation route for civilians.

Donetsk People's Republic official Eduard Basurin has warned that Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk must "surrender or die" similar to threats levelled against the Ukrainian defenders of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.

Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are likely setting conditions for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian ground lines of communication to Lysychansk.

There was minimal shelling exchanges around Kherson yesterday, but Ukrainian counteroffensives to the north continued to move east and south securing some further roads and settlements before Russian airborne forces and artillery stopped their advances.

Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaging in ongoing fighting for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces in the Zaporizhia Oblast continue to withdraw south and or move northeast to reinforce other offensives, delaying the risk of an imminent offensive on Zaporizhia.

12 Jun 22

At the grand strategic and diplomatic level, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe said he supported peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv but said China was opposed to the West’s provision of weapons to Ukraine as well as its sanctions on Russia.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine “is what happens when oppressors trample the rules that protect us all”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will reportedly travel to Kyiv with his counterparts from France and Italy before the Group of Seven summit at the end of June.

Kyiv has said that it is doing everything possible to save three foreign nationals sentenced to death by proxy authorities in Donbas for fighting for Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow’s response to a buildup of NATO forces in Poland will be proportionate.

As predicted on the ground, Ukrainian partisan activity is reportedly increasing in Russian occupied regions. Sabotage operations on fuel, communications, vehicles and railway infrastructure is evolving into more organised, sophisticated and audacious attacks. There are reports of a major sabotage attack in the occupied port city of Berdyansk this morning after energy and fuel infrastructure were successfully targeted by Ukrainian forces. Seizing Ukrainian territory is one thing holding it indefinitely in the face of an insurgency is a whole different challenge altogether.

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russia continues to conduct significant shelling on civilian areas near Kharkiv.

It was reported that Russia has deployed two battalions out of three in its brigade units.

Britain intelligence believes that Russia is preparing to bring all brigades up to combat strength and mobilize all three battalions at once in Sievierodonetsk.

Russia is ready to deploy reserve battalions in Ukraine.

According to Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai, Russian forces are currently shelling the last bridge leading to Sievierodonetsk, aiming to cut the town off. Russian troops have destroyed the second of three bridges. The bridges connect Sievierodonetsk to Lysychansk across the Siverskyi Donets River in a likely attempt to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run from Bakhmut to Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.

Russia has knocked out power supplies in Donetsk's two largest Ukrainian controlled cities Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

Russia is preparing a major offensive on Slovyansk in Donetsk. Russia has achieved success by getting a foothold in Bohorodychne, which is 24 kilometres near Slovyansk.

Russian forces have made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will continue their advance on Slovyansk from the northwest.

Russia’s efforts to secure strategic supply routes towards Bakhmut made minimal gains yesterday.

Russian attacks have been beaten back in the area of Dovhenke, Mazanivka and Dolyna near Slovyansk in Donetsk Oblast.

Russia forces advances in the vicinity of Vrubivka, Orikhove and Zolote near Popasna in Luhansk Oblast were also held back.

Some 22 people injured in Russia’s June 11 Missile attack on Chortkiv, Ternopil Oblast.

Russian defences around the city itself are now significant.

Russian forces in the Zaporizhia Oblast continue to withdraw south and or move northeast to reinforce other offensives, delaying the risk of an imminent offensive on Zaporizhia.

Mykolaiv regional governor stressed the urgent need for international military assistance, and said “we are out of ammo”.

The Commander of the Ukrainian Army General Valery Zaluzhny, has asked the US for more 155mm artillery shells to replenish Ukraine’s war stocks.

11 Jun 22

On the grand strategic level, Russia has threatened a "proportionate and appropriate" response to a NATO military buildup in Poland. It remains unclear what this means but we should watch for a potential Russian military buildup in Belarus and or Kaliningrad.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine “is what happens when oppressors trample the rules that protect us all. It’s what happens when big powers decide that their imperial appetites matter more than the rights of their peaceful neighbours and it’s a preview of a possible world of chaos and turmoil that none of us would want to live in.”

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

The battle for Sievierodonetsk is devolving into street fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces with heavy casualties on both sides. Ukraine controls one-third of Sievierodonetsk.

Russian troops had secured positions in two communities near Sievierodonetsk.

Russian forces resumed efforts to cut the T1303 Hirske-Lysyschansk highway and launched failed assaults on settlements along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychank highway.

Russian forces continued assaults on settlements southwest and southeast of Izyum in an effort to resume drives on Slovyansk.

Russian forces are putting pressure on Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Kostiantynivka, Bakhmut and Druzhkivka.

Russia is looking for weak points in Ukrainian defences near the Siversky Donets river in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has repelled a Russian offensive northwest Ukrainian military repels Russian offensive northwest of Slovyansk.

Ukrainian forces successfully held off Russian offensives near the villages of Brazhkivka, Dolyna, and Vernopil in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Kherson City Council said that the Ukrainian army had launched a counterattack in the direction of Kyselivka, Soldatske, and Oleksandrivka. The village of Tavriiske has been completely liberated, the council added. Thanks

Ukraine's Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi has said that Russian shelling has destroyed up to 300,000 tons of Ukrainian grain. Russia's targeting of grain warehouses and attacks on Mykolaiv, which stores grain and corn, are exacerbating global food insecurity.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reports that they have successfully destroyed Russian equipment, including one tank, five vehicles, and three field ammunition depots on the southern frontlines.

10 Jun 22

At the strategic level, Ukrainian officials are reportedly increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Synehubov said that as a result of Russian shelling of residential buildings over the past 24 hours, two people were killed, another 15 injured.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces has reported that early on June 10th that all members of Russia’s motorized infantry unit of the First Army Corps refused to fight after suffering heavy losses in Kharkiv Oblast.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Hayday has said that a key Wagner Group base located in Kadiivka, Luhansk has been destroyed with great loss of life.

Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said despite heavy fighting in Sievierodonetsk, the city has not fallen to Russia, even as its troops “destroy everything in their path.”

Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city.

Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and are conducting assaults on settlements near the highway.

Russia is reportedly searching for weak spots in Ukrainian defense near Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said on national TV that Russian forces had not abandoned attempts to break the front line near the strategic river.

Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported on Telegram that two people were killed in Avdiivka and one person was killed in Novoukrainka as a result of Russian shelling.

Russia is reportedly ready to fire 40 cruise missiles from the Black Sea after another Russian submarine has moored in the Black Sea.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Shelling has intensified in the south on Mykolaiv due to the increased range of Russian artillery moved into this region.

Russian troops took the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will give them to further control of the Black Sea coast.

9 Jun 22

Speaking at an exhibition devoted to Peter the Great, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claimed that the emperor’s Great Northern War against Sweden had been a return of Russian land, not a conquest of territory and drew parallels with Russia’s war with Ukraine.

A Western official has estimated that up to 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine. Russian wounded may be four to five times the number of those killed.

On the ground, Russia has consolidated its forces in Ukraine keeping its best troops for the operation in the Donbas while continuing to hold its positions elsewhere using reservists equipped with older main battle tanks like the T-62. The war has raged for four months and there is now a race between Ukraine and Russia to see who exhausts the other first.

Russian air and missile strikes continued across numerous regions of Ukraine.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russian forces control most of the strategic city of Sieverodonetsk and are heavily shelling the twin city of Lysychansk.

To the north, Russian infantry and armour have been pushing south towards the strategically important towns of Slovyansk and Kramatosk with their vital rail junctions, crucial for the movement of an Army’s supplies and vehicles.

Last week Russia repaired the railway connection into Izyum and further offensives from Izyum towards Slovyansk are expected in the coming days making Sievierodonetsk even more vulnerable.

Russian forces to the south of this salient are slowly advancing north in an attempt to cut the roads leading to the town of Bakhmut.

These two Russian thrusts are designed to pinch this ever-narrowing pocket and squeezing it until Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk are cut off from the rest of Ukraine.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Shelling has intensified in the south on Mykolaiv due to the increased range of Russian artillery moved into this region.

8 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Canada has suspended exports of 28 services vital for Russia's oil, gas and chemical sectors.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has offered cooperation between Russia and Turkey on guaranteeing the safety of Ukrainian ports and vessels reaching the Bosporous.

The Belarusian military is reportedly training to create strike groups, send them to Ukrainian border. Belarusian troops are also checking the readiness of their transport infrastructure during the drills set to last until June 11th.

Belarus is scheduled to conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

According to the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Russian forces are sending threatening messages to the personal devices of Ukrainian servicemen calling on them to betray their country and surrender. The GUR reported that Russian forces are sending messages on a variety of platforms including SMS, Telegram, Viber, Signal, and WhatsApp and the messages threaten to harm Ukrainian soldiers or their family members.

Russian air and missile strikes continued yesterday and this morning across numerous regions of Ukraine. There was reportedly significant increase in missile strikes on positions along the Donetsk line of contact.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

There have been reports of clashes around Kharkiv but the majority of activity now seems to be Ukrainian and Russian forces consolidating defenses and supply lines.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai has said that Russia's intense bombardments of Sievierodonetsk has pushed Ukrainian forces to the outskirts of the city.

Russian shelling was intensive yesterday and overnight on Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut, Slovyansk, Lysychansk, but more sporadic along along the Donetsk line of contact.

Russian forces launched further attacks on Bakhmut yesterday after days of significant shelling and air/missile strikes.

There are reports of Russian Special Operations Forces moving onto parts of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.

Russian forces also launched attacks against the Vuhlehirska power station southwest of Popasna.

Russian forces are continuing operations around Sviatohirsk and west of Lyman to link up with operations southeast of Izyum and drive on Slovyansk.

The Russian military is reportedly prepared for a new offensive on Slovyansk in Donetsk Oblast. Russians continue to shell the towns near Slovyansk, including Adamivka and Dolyna.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said on June 8th that due to the lack of medicine it is difficult to treat injured civilians in Kherson Oblast.

Shelling has also intensified around Kherson again.

East of Zaporizhzhia several Russian units were moving south, likely to reinforce defensive positions in Kherson Oblast.

Shelling has intensified in the south on Mykolaiv due to the increased range of Russian artillery moved into this region.

The US is reportedly looking into providing long range anti-ship missiles which could help Ukraine regain control of portions of the northwestern Black Sea. Some 30 Russian warships and submarines continue to blockade Ukrainian ports, while up to 12 landing ships still threaten the Ukrainian coast but they remain far from the coast to avoid a repeat of the anti-ship cruise missile attack that sank the cruiser and flagship Moskva.

Russia has moved SA-15 and SA-22 air defence systems to Snake Island on Ukraine's Black Sea to further Russia's naval blockade of Ukraine. But this base can also be used to strike and invade Moldova and Russia continues to stoke tensions between its protectorate Transnistria and Moldova proper.

7 Jun 22

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed for more weapons and aid from NATO and for it to arrive faster, saying things could become very difficult for Ukraine if Russian forces break through the front lines in Donbas.

Belarus reportedly has plans to increase its army from 45,000 to 80,000 troops.

Belarus is scheduled to conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured parts of the contested Donbas city of Sieverodonetsk, but Russia continues to occupy eastern districts and is likely trying to cut off Sieverodonetsk from both the north and the south.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned Russian forces likely control most of Severodonetsk as of Monday.

Russian forces shelled the town of Zolote, destroying 13 houses, in Luhansk Oblast.

The Ukrainian General Staff said that Russian troops are preparing for the offensive on the city of Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast. Russia continues trying to capture Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast.

There are reports of heavy shelling near the city of Izyum suggesting Russia is preparing for a renewed effort on the northern axis, as its progress on the southern Popasna axis has stalled over the last week.

Russian forces have fired on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Uragan missile launchers.

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the opening of a road connection between Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea. The road will run through Russian-occupied Donbas.

Russian troops have 'likely withdraw' from the Melitopol district in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and movers towards Kherson as part of a troops' rotation.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Russian movements east of Zaporizhzhia were defensive with some artillery fire and air/missile strikes, but no ground offensives

6 Jun 22

At the strategic level, Russian troops have deployed dual-capable Iskander-M Short Range Missiles systems, medium-range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery systems Pantsir, S-400 in positions within Belarus along the Ukrainian border.

Belarus is scheduled to conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

On the ground, Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

According to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Synehubov, Russian forces intensified the shelling of residential areas in the Kharkiv oblast.

Russian shelling continued overnight and this morning and continues to be intensive on and around Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has reportedly said that Sievierodonetsk and its sister city of Lysychansk “are dead cities” in the battle for Luhansk.

Ukrainian troops are still contesting Russian control over Sievierodonetsk, and fighting is taking place in the eastern industrial part of the city. But the Ukrainian position in Sievierodonetsk has worsened amid heavy fighting.

Ukrainian forces have also repelled a Russian attack near the village of Voronove near Sievierodonetsk.

British intelligence has reportedly identified Sloviansk as the second key front in Russia's war in the Donbas after Severodonetsk suggesting that Russia is still trying to encircle Ukrainian forces.

Russia's Donbas offensive is relying extensively on proxy forces from the Luhansk People's Republic reminiscent of its tactics in Syria.

Russian forces remain mostly constrained in Izyum, but heavy fighting continues south of Lyman and towards Slovyansk where Russian gained some ground.

Ukrainian troops have blocked Russia from seizing the strategic highway linking the cities of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast. but Russian pressure remains.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Russian movements east of Zaporizhzhia were defensive with some artillery fire and air/missile strikes, but no ground offensives.

Russia has moved SA-15 and SA-22 air defence systems to Snake Island on Ukraine's Black Sea to further Russia's naval blockade of Ukraine.

Some 30 Russian warships and submarines continue to blockade Ukrainian ports, while up to 12 landing ships still threaten the Ukrainian coast. Russian Naval forces have launched 300 cruise missiles at land targets since the start of the conflict.

A Russian state media journalist reported Moscow’s Major General Roman Kutuzov was killed in eastern Ukraine. Major General Kutuzov served as the commander of Russia’s 5th Combined Arms Army, and later as the deputy commander of the 29th Combined Arms Army.

5 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow will strike new targets if the West supplies long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

According to Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Defense, the war is still in its hot phase and capturing Kyiv is still Russia’s main goal.

At the operational level, Kyiv saw the worst missile attack in weeks as civilian and military infrastructure were targeted in a Russian attack.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Synyehubov has said Russian troops are currently shelling residential areas in Kharkiv.

Russian shelling continued across the Donbas, with most intensive fire around the Sievierodonetsk, Lyman and the Bakhmut.

Fierce fighting occurred south of Lyman where Russian forces tried to secure access over the Siverskyi Donets River in two seperate points, but were blocked.

Heavy Russian artillery fire hit both Siversk and Bakhmut as Russian units in the southeast attempted to push west towards Bakhmut.

Russian forces have destroyed or damaged at least 43 religious sites in Donetsk Oblast.

Whilst the main Russian focus remains on Sievierodonetsk where significant fighting continues, these other regional pushes by Russian forces are aimed at reinforcing units, enveloping Ukrainian forces, and protecting supply routes.

British intelligence reportedly believes Ukrainian forces have counterattacked in Sieverodonetsk in eastern Ukraine over the past 24 hours ‘blunting’ the momentum of Russian forces.

There are reports of increased Russian activity, reconnaissance, and some significant shelling onto the strategic city of Lysychansk.

There was little Russian activity out of Izyum but significant Ukrainian air activity.

Russian forces made minor moves towards Slovyansk supported by heavy artillery fire, but made only minimal gains.

Russia continues to build layered defences and send reinforcements to Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a long war of attrition.

Russian movements east of Zaporizhzhia were defensive with some artillery fire and air/missile strikes, but no ground offensives.

Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said a Russian cruise missile flew just over the nuclear power plant in Mykolaiv Oblast, likely on its way to Kyiv, on the morning of June 5th.

Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” has reportedly said on June 4th that Russia has stationed four ships and one submarine equipped with 36 cruise missiles increasing the risk of missile attacks.

4 Jun 22

At the grand strategic level, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that defense leaders will discuss further aid to Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on June 15th in Brussels.

Former Russian President and Deputy National Security Committee Chair Dmitri Medvedev has warned that Ukraine's use of US rockets against Russian targets could lead to Russia striking Western cities.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow will continue its military operation in Ukraine until all its goals have been achieved.

Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Belarus has reportedly mined roads, bridges, forests near the Ukrainian border.

On the ground, UK Defense Intelligence has reportedly said that coordinated air and artillery strikes were key factors in Russia’s recent tactical successes in Donbas. The report also suggests that Russia’s increased use of unguided munitions has led to widespread destruction and has caused many civilian casualties.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russian Tochka-U ballistic missiles targeted the areas of Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, and Lysychansk in the Donbas.

Russia launched airstrikes on Sloviansk and Soledar, Donetsk.

Fierce fighting raged on Saturday in Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast.

Russia's advance on Sievierodonetsk appears to be suffering severe setbacks in both territorial losses and escalating numbers of Russian casualties. In what appears to be a rare bright spot for Ukraine in the struggle for Luhansk.

Russia has reinforced its troops and used artillery to conduct “assault operations” in Sievierodonetsk, but Russian forces retreated after failed attempts to advance in the nearby town of Bakhmut.

Russia is reportedly using reservists from the 2nd Army Corps to aid its conquest of Sieverodonetsk.

Russian forces were blowing up bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River to prevent Ukraine bringing in military reinforcements and delivering aid to civilians in Sievierodonetsk.

Russia is building layered defences in Kherson in southern Ukraine to prepare Russian forces for a longer attritional war.

A Russian missile reportedly hit an agricultural building in Odesa Oblast.

3 Jun 22

On the geo-strategic level, China has requested a meeting between Defense Secretary Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue to focus on “managing competition” between them next week.

US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington, and discussed the implications of Russia’s war on Ukraine for transatlantic security.

On the strategic military level, Russia’s Pacific Fleet launched a week-long series of exercises with more than 40 ships and up to 20 aircraft taking part.

Russia’s supreme commander in Ukraine and former Commander of the Southern Military District General Dvornikov has be dismissed from leading Russian troops in Ukraine. General Alexander Dvornikov was replaced by General Gennady Zhidko, former commander of the Eastern Military District and Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister.

As well, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed five Major Generals including Vasily Kukushkin, Alexander Laas, Andrey Lipilin, Alexander Udovenko, and Yuri Instrankin, as well as police colonel Emil Musin. Previously, President Putin fire Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army and Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, who commanded Russia's Black Sea Fleet. At least 25 Russian General Officers have been killed in action amid the Ukraine war.

On the ground, The UN confirmed 9,151 civilian casualties in Ukraine since the start of the invasion on February 24th, including 4,169 people killed and 4,982 injured.

UK intelligence has assessed that Russia is achieving tactical success in the Donbas, controlling over 90 percent of the Luhansk Oblast and “likely” to complete control in the next two weeks.

In the 100 days of Russia’s invasion, more than 400 Kilometres of roads have been damaged, and almost 70 schools, 50 kindergartens, 33 hospitals and 237 rural outpatient clinics destroyed in the Luhansk region.

Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Belarus has reportedly mined roads, bridges, forests near the Ukrainian border.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces fired mortars and artillery at the border territory in Chernihiv Oblast. According to the Ukrainian military, more than 40 explosions were recorded near the Kamianska Sloboda village in Chernihiv Oblast.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russian troops’ recent offensive towards Barvinkove and Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast have been unsuccessful.

Russia concentrates up to 20 Battalion Tactical Groups for offensive towards Sloviansk.

Russian forces control 50 percent of Sievierodonetsk after Ukrainian counteroffensive. Previously Russian troops had controlled 70 percent of the city.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has warned that Russia is building layered defences in Kherson and while it slows the pace of Russia's offensive in southern Ukraine it leaves Russian forces more equipped for a longer attritional war.

2 Jun 22

Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Belarus has reportedly mined roads, bridges, forests near the Ukrainian border.

On the ground, Ukrainian President Zelensky has said that Russia now occupies 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russia has continued to make 'steady local gains,' and has taken control of most of Sievierodonetsk. The Defense Ministry said that Ukraine likely still has control over the main road into Sievierodonetsk but Russia continues to advance despite heavy losses.

Russian troops continued operations to capture Lysychansk.

Russian forces will continue to face challenges crossing the Siverskyi Donets River to complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and make further advances westward of Lyman towards Slovyansk via Raihorodok.

Russia will likely need a tactical pause to reset for contested crossings in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast after gains in Luhansk.

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman remain stalled.

Russian forces made incremental advances around Avdiivka.

Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern Kherson Oblast pushed Russian forces to the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T2207 highway.

1 Jun 22

Strategically, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its nuclear forces had started maneuver drills in Ivanovo Oblast in western Russia. It is believed these are exercises involving MIRV Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, likely RS-24 Yars variants

On March 10, the British Defence Ministry said that Russia had confirmed its use of thermobaric bombs and Ukraine has repeatedly raised alarm about Moscow's use of these weapons over the past two months.

Russian MP Oleg Morozov has suggested that Russia should kidnap a NATO Defence Minister in Kyiv and take him back to Moscow.

The US has asked for Ukrainian assurances not to attack Russian territory for risk of widening the three-month conflict.

On the ground, Ukrainian President Zelensky said we are losing 60-100 soldiers per day killed in action and around 500 people wounded inaction. This would place Ukrainian combat losses at about 9000 dead and 48000 wounded.

Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians forces continued missile, air, and artillery attacks on Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russian shelling significantly increased on Kharkiv last night with concerns this may be an indicator of a new offensive by Russian forces.

Russian reinforcements from Izyum towards the Sieverodonetsk major offensive have so far been minimum.

Russian ground operations in Luhansk Oblast are concentrated on Sieverodonetsk, with Russian forces pushing closer to the eastern town center.

Russia’s rate of advance in the battle for the Donbas has been 500 metres to one Kilometre per day: "incremental but pretty steady gains...at a relatively slow pace."

Significant Russian shelling continues towards Slovyansk and Barvinkove with some minor Russian manoeuvres in this direction.

Russian units pushing south of Lyman have also diverted southwest towards Slovyansk rather than southeast towards the main Sievierodonetsk offensive.

Russian advances towards Bakhmut continued to be stalled.

Ukraine has reportedly liberated more than 20 settlements in the north of Kherson Oblast, which is largely occupied by Russia.

Russian troops have blown up bridges across the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid and Velyka Oleksandrivka villages of Kherson Oblast.

US President Joe Biden's new $700 million military aid package for Ukraine includes:

• 4 HIMARS

• Guided munitions that have a range 70 Kilometres

• 1,000 additional Javelins

• 6,000 anti-armor weapons

• 15,000 155mm shells

• 4 Mi-17 helicopters

• Tactical vehicles

31 May 22

Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, which borders Ukraine to the south and Russia to the east.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians heavily shell Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

Russia is beginning to achieve some local successes in the Donbas, including taking Lyman, by massing troops and artillery in smaller areas.

Russians hit Sloviansk with Iskander missiles, killing 3 people, wounding 6, damaging a school and at least seven residential buildings in Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine’s General Staff said that Russian troops had unsuccessfully tried to storm the village of Dovhenke near Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops are also trying to storm Zolote, Komyshuvakha, Nyrkove, Berestove, Pokrovske and Dolomitne near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine confirms that Russia has seized half of Severodonetsk in Luhansk and is pursuing a “block by block” assault on the city.

Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks against the Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the Inhulets River.

Russian reinforcements continue to move into Kherson with many units advancing to its north.

There are also reinforcements from Melitopol reportedly advancing north, increasing the likelihood of an offensive towards Zaporizhia.

30 May 22

According to British Intelligence, mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will further degrade Russian morale and command and control capabilities.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians heavily shell Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russian forces continued to capture areas of Severodonetsk but have not yet fully encircled the city.

Russian forces focused on regrouping near Izyum to renew offensives towards Slovyansk and Barvinkove

Russian forces are making incremental advances towards Slovyansk.

Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.

The limited Ukrainian counterattack in northern Kherson Oblast did not take any further ground in the last 48 hours but has disrupted Russian operations.

Russian forces launched several unsuccessful attacks against the Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the Inhulets River.

Russian reinforcements continue to move into Kherson with many units advancing to its north.

There are also reinforcements from Melitopol reportedly advancing north, increasing the likelihood of an offensive towards Zaporizhia.

29 May 22

Anonymous has said that it has hacked Russian military intelligence servers (GRU), the intelligence service of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

US Defense Officials believe Russia has lost a thousand front-line main battle tanks, “well over” 350 artillery pieces, almost three dozen fighter bomber fixed-wing aircraft, and more than 50 helicopters during the fighting.

On the ground in 95 days of fighting Russia has lost an estimated 30,000 troops in 94 days of war in Ukraine.

Russia is still believed to have 110 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, made up of roughly 800 to 1,000 service members. The Russian military committed “more than 80 percent of their total” BTGs to the invasion and war with Ukraine.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russians heavily shell Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Russia said its forces had taken full control of Lyman, west of Sievierodonetsk; however, Ukraine Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar said the battle for the town continued.

Russian troops have conducted an unsuccessful offensive towards Slovyansk, and withdrawn some units from Lyman in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops are replenishing supplies of ammunition, fuel and lubricants for the next attempts to ford the Siverskyi Donets River.

Russian troops moved towards the central part of the strategic city Sievierodonetsk. Russian troops are trying to entrench their positions in northeastern Sievierodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces appear close to seizing all of the Luhansk region, one of the more modest war goals of the Kremlin.

Russian artillery pounded the Lysychansk-Bakhmut road, which Russia must take to encircle Ukrainian forces.

Russia also said it had used missile attacks to destroy Ukrainian command posts in Bakhmut and Soledar.

Russian reinforcements continue to move into Kherson with many units advancing to its north.

There are also reinforcements from Melitopol reportedly advancing north, increasing the likelihood of an offensive towards Zaporizhia.

There were some advances by Russian forces east of Zaporizhia.

28 May 22

With the world focused on the geo-strategic situation in and around the Ukraine and China’s threats to Taiwan North Korea is likely to conduct a nuclear test imminently even this weekend.

Russia has tested the new Zircon hypersonic cruise missile missile in the Barents Sea, not far from Finland and Sweden and hit a target in the White Sea.

Dmitry Medvedev, a former president of Russia and a Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, said the authorities need to strengthen control over people and organizations labeled as “foreign agents."

Belarus has extended its military exercises near the Ukraine border until at least May 28th.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russia has now lost an estimated 30,000 troops in 94 days of war in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended the age limit for joining the Russian military.

Under the new law Russians under 50 are entitled to sign their first contract for military service. Prior to that, the age limit was under 40.

Strategically, with Moscow pushing hard for victory on the ground in Ukraine, Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight mostly in the east and southeast. Kharkiv was impacted by missiles fired from Belgorod. More mobile missile units were moved closer to the border in Belarus with an increasing missile risk in the northwest. Russian air activity increased across much of the southeast yesterday and around Kherson.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces have continued shelling border areas of Sumy Obkast.

Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static

Russian shelling was reportedly intensive late yesterday on Sievierodonetsk and remains sporadic in many other regions.

Ukrainian shelling was intensive around Izyum last night where the Ukrainians continue to counter Russian movements.

The crucial Russian push towards Bakhmut from Popasna and the important M3 highway in the region seems to have been mostly diverted to Sievierodonetsk.

Russian continued heavy shelling towards Bakhmut this morning though.

Russian Special Forces and Chechen units entered the northern fringes of the strategic city of Sievierodonetsk yesterday with further advances towards the city by Russian forces overnight. The city is not fully encircled as yet and with the containment of forces at Izyum it is unlikely the Russians have enough forces to seize it outright.

Russian forces consolidated in and around parts of Lyman and have started conducting operations to its south and southeast. Lyman is a strategic town for Russia's located on a strategically important railway junction in Donetsk. The fall of Lyman into Russian hands will likely encourage the Russian military to try to cross the Siverskyy Donets river. A Russian thrust from Lyman could be used to encircle Ukrainian units and could see significant fighting on this front in the coming days.

Russian reinforcements continue to move into Kherson with many units advancing to its north.

There are also reinforcements from Melitopol reportedly advancing north, increasing the likelihood of an offensive towards Zaporizhia.

There were some advances by Russian forces east of Zaporizhia.

Unconfirmed reports have said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a major offensive to liberate southern Kherson province. The Russian military units are

currently trying to hold a defense line Andriivka-Lozove-Bilogirka.

27 May 22

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said his country will not be able to counter Russia’s offensive without more heavy weapons.

Belarus has extended its military exercises near the Ukraine border until at least May 28th.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces have continued shelling border areas of Sumy Obkast.

Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s offensive in the Donbas could leave the eastern region “uninhabited” and Moscow’s forces want to turn cities such as Popasna, Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk to ashes.

Donetsk separatists claim that they have full control of Lyman. Lyman is the second midsize Ukrainian city this week to have been captured by Russian troops.

Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk.

Russian forces resumed the offensive towards Slovyansk.

Russia fired three missiles at Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Russian ground forces continued their attempt to surround Sievierodonetsk and capture villages northwest of Popasna.

Russian troops continued their assault on Sieverodonetsk as they use heavy artillery to support assault operations in the areas of the settlements of Shchedryshcheve, Borivske, and Toshkivka.

The BBC is reporting that Ukrainian troops could withdraw from eastern city of Severodonetsk, which Russian forces are close to surrounding.

Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to encircle of Sieverodonetsk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.

Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis. Russians forces are preparing for offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts.

Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Russian troops are moving vehicles, armored combat vehicles, and multiple rocket launchers to the Kherson region.

Ukraine’s army said Russian forces are regularly shelling areas in the now-occupied Kherson region. 26 May 22

Strategically, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on allies to further support Ukraine in its Russia’s “war of attrition” by supplying weapons while preventing escalation to avoid Russia seeing NATO as a belligerent. NATO members informally agree not to supply Ukraine with aircraft and tanks. According to US officials to CNN, the Biden administration is preparing to send Ukraine long-range rocket systems like the MLRS and HIMARS.

US officials have told CNN that Russia has lost 1,000 tanks in Ukraine since February. The Ukrainian army has also destroyed more than 350 artillery pieces, nearly 30 attack bombers, and more than 50 helicopters. But despite heavy losses of equipment, Russia still maintains a large materiel advantage over Ukraine due to the sheer amount of assets that they have poured into the war. Previous reports show Russia moving older Soviet-era T-62 main battle tanks to the front from war storage hubs.

British Intelligence believes that Russian Airborne Forces have been 'heavily involved in several notable tactical failures in Ukraine.' These failures include the failed Hostomel Airfield Attack in March, the stalled offensive on Izium axis since April and the recent disastrous bridge crossings of the Siverskyi Donets River. The misemployment of its airborne forces “highlights how Russia’s significant investment in the armed forces over the last 15 years has resulted in an unbalanced overall force.

The Russian military is training reserve soldiers and replenishing equipment in the Russian regions of Voronezh and Belgorod, bordering Ukraine's Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Despite questions about Russian combat losses in Ukraine, the number of Battalion Tactical Groups BTGs) continues to grow. Russia has 110 BTGs in Ukraine, which is an increase from 97 BTGs on May 9th. Russia continues to use its manpower advantage to replenish its forward deployed and rotate combat weary troops. Masterful information warfare in controlling both the narrative of the war, and hiding the damage to its own forces by Ukraine, will be one of the great lessons of this modern war.

Belarus has extended its military exercises near the Ukraine border until at least May 28th.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said during a meeting at the Defense Ministry that a separate commandr would control the southern border of the country, or almost 1,100 kilometres with Ukraine.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces have continued shelling border areas of Sumy Obkast.

Russians forces shelled Shevchenkivskyi, Kyivskyi, and Pavlove Pole neighborhoods in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk border.

Kremlin proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts plan to join Russia if Moscow captures the whole of the two oblasts. Russian forces have taken control of over 95 percent of Luhansk Oblast and will likely capture Sieverodonetsk in the coming days.

Russian troops fired on 41 settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on May 25th destroying or damaging 52 residential buildings, civilian infrastructure, including a school.

Russian forces continued steady advances around Sieverodonetsk and are attempting to completely encircle the Sieverodonetsk-Lysychansk area. Russian success could have the effect of cutting four Ukrainian Army brigades from the rest of Ukraine.

Russian forces have continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut.

The Ukrainian military is likely reinforcing its Sieverodonetsk-Lisichansk area rather than withdrawing from it. Apparently, the Ukrainian high command has opted to go on trying to wear the Russian military out in urban warfare.

Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis. Russians forces are preparing for offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. They continue to strengthen their positions in the occupied areas.

According to ISW, Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Ukraine’s army said Russian forces are regularly shelling areas in the now-occupied Kherson region.

25 May 22

At the grand strategic level, Ukraine has ruled out territorial concessions, and signing another Minsk Agreement. Presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said agreeing to give up territories is impossible and would only backfire as Russia would use the pause in fighting to prepare for further offensives.

The Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko had confirmed his country is supplying weapons to Russia. Belarus and Russia set up joint programs to work through Western sanctions.

Belarus has extended its military exercises near the Ukraine border until at least May 28th.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

The Ukrainian military said Russia fired at Ukrainian border guards in the northeastern Sumy region.

Russian forces are attempting to retake Ternova in northern Kharkiv Oblast and seek to stabilize defensive positions near the Russian border.

Russian forces have continued to close the gap between their forces at Popasna and the Sievierodonetsk and encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

Ukraine is battling to maintain a key supply route highway to Sievierodonetsk.

Russia's assault on Donetsk has become more intense centred around forcing Lyman into submission.

Russian forces have entered Lyman to coordinate advances southeast of Izyum to launch an offensive on Siversk.

The Russian advance from Propasna moving north toward Sievierodonetsk has two main routes from Bakhmut to Lysychansk, and from

Soledar and Berestove, and Siversk.

Even though the battle for the Popasna heights is ongoing, the Russians push has gained ground solidifying their hold on Vasylivka and pushing through Volodymyrivka or Vasylivka to cut the Highway north of Soledar.

Ukrainian forces have made a quick withdrawal from Svitlodarsk and been matched by almost as rapid an advance of the Russian forces northwards.

The two main highways in the region the T1302 and T0513 are also under threat north of Soledar of being captured by Russian forces. If both roads are cut there's a risk of up to four Ukrainian brigades being cut off from the rest of Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainians have stopped reinforcing the troops fighting in the pocket and withdrawing to a more defensible line.

Russia attacked Kryvyi Rih with 3 missiles and hit a factory, which sustained serious damage.

Russia attacked Zaporizhzhia with 4 missiles, 1 killed. Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City in an attempt to disrupt a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces operating in the east.

Ukraine’s army said Russian forces are regularly shelling areas in the now-occupied Kherson region.

24 May 22

On the grand strategic level, there are no current plans to deploy UK warships to the Black Sea but Britain will work with international partners to find ways to resume the export of grain from Ukraine.

Canada reportedly purchased 20,000 artillery shells from the US spending about $75 million for NATO-standard ammunition.

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely out of coup fears has promoted his former personal bodyguard Major-General Alexander Kurenkov, to be the Kremlin's new Emergencies Minister.

Strategically on the ground, according to the ISW, Russian forces are attempting to achieve several simultaneous encirclements of small pockets of Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts including the broader Severodonetsk area, Rubizhne and Lysychansk and Bakhmut-Lysychansk, around Zolote northeast of Popasna, and around Ukrainian fixed defenses at Avdiivka. Russian forces have attempted these different encirclement operations daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas.

Belarus has extended its military exercises near the Ukraine border until at least May 28th.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces are attempting to retake Ternova in northern Kharkiv Oblast and seek to stabilize defensive positions near the Russian border.

The Russian military continue their offensive in Donetsk Oblast, shelling the cities of Kramatorsk, Lyman and Slovyansk, and are advancing in Luhansk Oblast near the villages of Lypove and Bilohorivka.

The UK Defense Intelligent Assessment has warned that “Russia’s capture of the Severodonetsk pocket would see the whole of Luhansk Oblast placed under Russian occupation.”

Russian forces are committing a significant number of their troops, artillery, and aircraft to defeat Ukrainian defenders in Luhansk Oblast and are diverting necessary resources from the Izyum axis, defensive positions around Kharkiv City, Donetsk City, and the Zaporizhia

Russian forces are making greater advances in the past week than throughout the rest of May.

Ukrainian forces are conducting a controlled orderly withdrawal southwest of Popasna near Bakhmut to protect Ukrainian supply lines against Russian offensives in the southeast of Bakhmut.

Russian Major General Kanamat Botashev has been shot down while flying over Luhansk Oblast.

Russian authorities in Mariupol announced that they will hold war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol.

The Russia-backed Kherson authority shared its plan to install a Russian military base for peace and security in the region.

Ukraine has said Russia is strengthening its position in the Black Sea as it added the frigate Makarov, increasing the risk of cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.

23 May 22

At the grand strategic level, Russia's Arctic Council diplomat Nikolai Korchunov has warned that Sweden and Finland's NATO accession will turn the Arctic into an "international theatre of military operations." Since last spring, Russia has carried out regular large-scale military drills to protect Arctic shipping.

Russia's EU Ambassador Vladimir Chizhov hashighlighted the uncertain status of the Aland Islands controlled by Finland. Finland keeps it as a demilitarized region but Russia has warnedthat NATO accession will militarize Aland.

Russian military convoys were reportedly seen carrying dual capable missiles toward Russia's border with Finland.

Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia will reportedly present a joint letter to the EU calling for the use of sanctioned Russian assets for Ukraine's reconstruction.

The Lithuanian Foreign Minister proposed a plan for a maritime coalition to lift the Russian blockade of the Black Sea on Ukrainian grain exports during talks with the UK Foreign Secretary.

Lithuania has confirmed that it will withdraw its ambassador from Russia on June 1st and not appoint a new one.

US has more than 102,000 troops in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US has said that 20 countries have agreed to provide new security assistance to Ukraine.

Denmark is pledging Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.

The Czech Republic is donating attack helicopters, rocket systems, and tanks to Ukraine. Czech Republic has already sent Soviet-era T-72 main battle tanks and BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

Italy, Greece, Norway and Poland are providing artillery systems and ammunition to Ukraine that is "critically needed."

Ukraine rejected a ceasefire or any territorial concessions to Moscow as Russia increased its attack in the eastern and southern parts of the country.

Belarus has extended its military exercises near the Ukraine border until at least till May 28th.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

The All-Russian Officers Assembly, an independent pro-Russian veterans’ association that seeks to reform Russian military strategy, called for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to declare war on Ukraine and introduce partial mobilization in Russia on May 19th. The following day, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on May 20th that Russia will form 12 new Western Military District units before the end of the year in response to NATO expansion.

Meanwhile in a potential sign of growing domestic angst about the conduct of the war and potential mobilization, Russian Telegram channel reported that an unknown attacker threw a Molotov cocktail at the military recruitment office in the Udmurtia region. On May 19th a Russian conscript shot at a recruitment office in Zheleznogorsk-Ilimsky in Irkutsk Oblast. There have been 12 previously reported attacks on recruitment offices since the beginning of the war.

On the ground, Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing old T-62 main battle tanks from storage to form new Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) likely the 12 from above. Russia is continuing to exhaust its remaining combat-ready reserves to maintain the momentum of the Battle of Sievierodonetsk, rather than prioritizing preparations for new reinforcements.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Sone 87 people have been killed by a Russian airstrike in Chernihiv Oblast on May 17th at the Ukrainian army’s Desna training ground.

Ukrainian forces liberated a total of 24 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast during the recent counter-offensive.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is forcing Russia to pull units from ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine to shore up their defensive positions near Vovchansk.

Russian forces around Izyum increased their tempo of air and artillery strikes in preparation to resume their stalled offensives.

Russian operations to encircle Sievierodonetsk made minor gains driving north through Zolote. Fighting is ongoing in Lyman north of Sievierodonetsk as Russian forces attempt to cut off Ukrainian supply lines.

Russia is reportedly trying to raze Sievierodonetsk to the ground as its forces bombard the city from all sides.

The Ukrainian army withdrew from Luhansk’s embattled city of Popasna to new positions.

Russia said its forces control 95 percent of Luhansk, part of the eastern Donbas region.

UK believes Russia has likely deployed its only operational company of BMP-T Terminator tank support vehicles to support Donbas offensive moving toward Sievierodonetsk.

Russian troops shelled the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with rockets in the vicinity of the town of Apostolove in the region’s Kryvy Rih District.

Russian troops outnumber locals in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast the number of Russian troops is growing in the region, as Russian forces attempt to regroup.

Ukraine has said Russia is strengthening its position in the Black Sea as it added the frigate Makarov, increasing the risk of cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.

22 May 22

In terms of strategy, Russia has continued its offensive in eastern Ukraine with its primary goal is to occupy the entire territory of Luhansk Oblast.

Russia hit Ukrainian forces with air strikes and artillery in the east and the south, targeting command centres, troops, and ammunition depots.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian missile in Fastivskyi District, Kyiv Oblast.

Russia forces shelled the border village of Senkivka in Chernihiv Oblast.

Russian troops recaptured Rubizhne in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Reinforced Russian forces are holding their positions on the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in northern Kharkiv.

Russian forces reportedly destroyed a major consignment of Western arms in Ukraine’s Zhytomyr region, west of Kyiv, using sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles.

Russian forces are intensifying efforts to capture Sievierodonetsk, the final Ukrainian strongpoint in the eastern Luhansk region.

Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have secured local advances to the north and west of Popasna.

Russian forces are trying to open a new line of advance north from Popasna to complete the encirclement of Sievierodonetsk while at the same time driving west toward Bakhmut

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Russian army was also attacking the city of Sloviansk, in the Donetsk, which is critical to Russia’s objective of capturing all of eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis.

Russia claims to have taken prisoner nearly 2,500 Ukrainian fighters from the besieged Azovstal steel plant.

The Ukrainian mayor of Mariupol warned it is facing a health and sanitation “catastrophe” from mass graves in shallow pits as well as the breakdown of sewage systems.

Russian troops are reported to be mining roads and bridges, blocking the way for residents to evacuate from the occupied Kherson Oblast to the territory controlled by Ukraine.

Nine people were injured in Russia’s shelling of Mykolaiv during past 24 hours.

Russian missiles also struck fuel storage facilities near Odesa on the Black Sea coast and shot down two Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft and 14 drones.

21 May 22

At the grand strategic level, representatives of the more than 40 country Ukrainian Coalition led by the US will meet on May 23rd at the German Ramstein Air Base to discuss further military support for Ukraine.

Britain mulls sending modern weaponry to Moldova as invasion fears loom. Moldova is dependent on old Soviet-era weapons systems and being re-equipped with modern NATO calibre systems would have a great impact on its defenses.

Russia has spoken out against Moldova getting NATO weapon systems reminiscent of Kremlin rhetoric about arming Ukraine.

Russian negotiator Leonid Slutsky said that Russia would consider exchanging the Ukrainian soldiers who were taken by Russia as prisoners of war in Mariupol for pro-Kremlin lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk.

On the ground, the Institute for the Study of War has said that Russian forces appear to be “digging in” around Kharkiv and along the southern axis in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives and a protracted war.

Explosions were heard this morning in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces fired mortars on settlements in Chernihiv Oblast toward Hremiach and Mykolaivka.

Russia shelled the Ukrainian border village in Sumy Oblast at Kucherivka.

A Russian missile hit military infrastructure in Rivne Oblast.

Russian forces reportedly are holding defensive positions north of Kharkiv City.

A Russian missile has struck a Ukrainian cultural centre in the eastern Kharkiv region, injuring seven people.

Russian forces also shelled Velyka Komyshuvakha and Dovhenke in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russia is reported to be preparing offensives towards Slovyansk, Lyman. Russian troops have tried unsuccessfully to storm Lypove, Vasylivka, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast will likely move to capitalize on recent gains made in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Luhansk-Popasna arc to encircle and besiege Sievierodonetsk, the final Ukrainian strongpoint in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces destroyed a bridge between Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The Russian Defence Ministry said the last group of Ukrainian forces holed up in Mariupol’s Azovstal steelworks had surrendered.

Ukraine is reportedly getting ready to counter punch Russian forces in Kherson and west of the Dnipro. Ukraine has a force advantage against relatively exposed and weakened Russian units.

Russia has struck a military airfield with missiles near Ukraine's southwestern city of Odesa; destroying drones, missiles and ammunition supplied to Ukraine by the United States and its European allies.

20 May 22

At the grand strategic level, in response to Finland's NATO membership ambitions Russia has announced that it will establish 12 military units and divisions in the Western Military District and move 2,000 pieces of equipment to western Russia by the end of the year.

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief has said that the country would keep fighting until it evicts Russian forces from all of its territory, including Crimea and other areas effectively seized by Moscow in 2014.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu says the "liberation" of Luhansk is nearing completion but a decisive victory in Sieverodonetsk has yet to be achieved by Russian forces.

On the ground, most of Russia’s active offensive operations remain confined to Izyum-Donetsk City arc and especially the Popasna-Sieverodonetsk area. British intelligence has predicted that Russian forces will move from Mariupol to Donbas and that this will likely be a lengthy process.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces reportedly are holding defensive positions north of Kharkiv City following the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive

Russia has launched a missile strike on a community center in the town of Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.

Poltava Oblast was hit in a Russian missile strike on an infrastructure facility in the region’s Lubny District.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region has been completely destroyed by Russian forces.

Four Russian missiles hit Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, in past 24 hours. The city of Bakhmut has been under constant airstrikes.

The Bakhmut-Lysychansk road is under direct fire from Russian artillery to the east after yesterday's advances with Russian troops about five Kilometres from Soledar.

From the Popasna axis it appears as if Ukrainian forces may have been routed.

Significant Russian offensive operations are confined to the area of Sieverodonetsk. Russian troops have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of the city, especially around Popasna, in order to attempt to take control of Sieverodonetsk. Russia has shelled a school in Sieverodonetsk, Luhansk Oblast.

It remains unconfirmed but according to the Kremlin-controlled media, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Azovstal and the entire city of Mariupol was under Russian control.

Russians forces are preparing for offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. They continue to strengthen their positions in the occupied areas.

Russia has accumulated 130 units of military equipment near Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast.

Russian troops are reported to be blocking the road from Kherson Oblast to the territories controlled by Ukraine, attempting to direct everyone who wants to leave the region to the Russian-occupied Crimea.

Russia is continuing to conduct harassing shelling and probing attacks in the direction of Mykolaiv.

Russian forces launched a missile at an infrastructure facility in Odesa region.

19 May 22

At the grand strategic level, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on NATO doesn’t believe that Russia has given up on its strategic goals and that NATO has to be prepared to support Ukraine “for a long time.”

The Baltic states are pushing for NATO to expand is military footprint on its eastern flank and from one to three multinational battalions per country. They have also requested that NATO set up division command head quarters to lay groundwork for possible troop surge in event of an invasion.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is determined to reclaim control over the southern cities of Kherson, Melitopol, Berdiansk, Enerhodar and Mariupol, now occupied by Russian troops.

The Pentagon has warned that it is seeing indications that Russian commanders are getting sacked for poor performance in Ukraine and a purge is continuing in the wider Russian national security apparatus.

UK Ministry of Defence said this morning that it is "unclear" if Russia’s Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov still has Putin's trust.

According to the UK Defence Ministry, Russia has fired Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel, the Commanding General of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv.

Vice-Admiral Igor Osipov, the Commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, has also likely been suspended following the sinking of the flagship Moskva.

Additionally, the Commander of the 6th Army, Lieutenant General Vladislav Ershov, Commander of the 22nd Army Corps of the Southern Military District, Major General Arkady Marzoev have been fired. Putin had replaced at least eight generals “due to their failures in Ukraine.” The Former head of the Fifth Service of the FSB General Sergei Beseda has been sent to a Moscow prison and his deputy General Anatoly Bolyukh placed under house arrest while 150 FSB officers of the Directorate have been fired.

On the ground, a senior US Defense official has said that Russia's strategy in the Donbas appears to be changing as the offensive has slowed to employing smaller units, night attacks and pursuing more modest objectives in Donbas. Russia still has 106 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, and the US has seen "no mobilization efforts of a mass scale" from Russia. Russian forces are combining BTGs of the Pacific and Northern Fleets at the permanent locations of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Russian forces are training servicemen in Krasnodar Krai to replenish units of the 49th Combined Arms Army. The Southern Military District is trying to bring to full strength Russian BTGs withdrawn from the battlefront north of occupied Crimea.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian troops continue to shell Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated 23 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast in two weeks.

Ukrainian troops pushed Russian forces to within 2 miles of the Russian border earlier this week.

But Russian forces have reportedly attempted to regain control of these settlements they lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast

Russia is continuing an offensive in the northern Donbas, in the direction of Sloviansk.

Russian airstrikes have hit Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops have been shelling Sievierodonetsk with heavy weapons, mostly targeting residential buildings in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces are intensifying operations to advance north and west of Popasna in preparation for an offensive toward Sievierodonetsk.

Russian forces shelled Zelenodolsk village of the Dnepropetrovsk region.

Russia has reportedly claimed that it has 1,730 Ukrainian soldiers from Azovstal plant taken prisoner since May 16th. This figure includes 80 wounded soldiers. The ministry also said that 771 soldiers from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol had surrendered in the last 24 hours.

Russian forces are continuing to conduct air and artillery strikes on the few Ukrainian soldiers left at Azovstal Steel Plant.

Russians forces are preparing for offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. They continue to strengthen their positions in the occupied areas.

Russia is continuing to conduct harassing shelling and probing attacks in the direction of Mykolaiv.

Ukraine’s fighters blew up an armoured train carrying Russian troops,

Russian forces are said to be bolstering their naval presence around Snake Island to fortify their control of the island.

The Australian government is sending Ukraine 14 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers and 20 Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles.

18 May 22

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov has reportedly said that Russia will only use nuclear weapons in a retaliation if it is attacked first. It is not clear how Russia defines “attack.”

Several units of the 70th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade have reportedly openly refused to take part in the war.

Belarus has deployed special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Eight people were killed and 12 others wounded in a Russian air attack on the village of Desna in the northern Ukrainian region of Chernihiv.

Russian military shelled the settlements of Yanzhulivka in the Chernihiv Oblast and Prohres in the Sumy Oblast, northern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military has liberated another settlement in Kharkiv Oblast the village of Dementiivka. Hostilities with Russian forces continue in another village, Ternova.

Russian forces continued to prioritize holding positions around the Russian border to prevent further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv.

Russian forces attempted to improve their tactical positions south of Izyum to resume offensive operations. Russian forces are replenishing troops and accumulating reserves to renew their drive on Slovyansk.

The situation around Lyman is rapidly deteriorating for Ukrainian troops. Today, Russia captured Novoselivka to the north west and may have captured Yarova. Lyman is now essentially surrounded on three sides and with only destroyed bridges over the Donets.

Russian forces continued to prepare for an assault on Sievierodonetsk and intensified operations around Lyman.

According to Ukraine’s military, Russia shelled 46 settlements, destroying or damaging more than 40 residential buildings, two schools, a kindergarten, and other civilian infrastructure in today.

Russian troops continued to focus on maintaining their positions on the Southern Axis and on conducting rocket, missile, and artillery strikes along the frontline.

960 brave Ukrainian troops have surrendered to Russian forces at the Azovstal complex at Mariupol and taken prisoner.

Russian forces are continuing to conduct air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant.

British Intelligence believes that Russia has made “significant” use of Chechen fighters in Mariupol in an effort to overcome Ukrainian resistance. The deployment was “likely” overseen by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

Kremlin-led Donetsk Oblast proxies have claimed that top-ranking commanders defending the Azovstal steel mill were not among about 960 soldiers that surrendered to the Russian forces.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that high-ranking Russian military officials were killed by Ukrainian forces in Melitopol.

Russians forces are preparing for offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. They continue to strengthen their positions in the occupied areas.

A Russian missile strike hit a residential area in the western part of Mykolaiv destroying several houses and wounding one local citizen.

It was reported that Germany will give the Czech Republic 15 Leopard-2 tanks as part of a "ring exchange" program to aid Ukraine.

17 May 22

At the grand strategic level, G7 Finance Ministers are reportedly planning 15 billion euros in aid for Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, reversing his previous statements, said Russia has no issue with Finland and Sweden joining the NATO alliance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said

Turkey “cannot say ‘yes’” to Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership.

Finland and Russia have expelled two diplomats each from their respective embassies.

France has pledged to defend Sweden and Finland against potential Russian threats.

Neutral Switzerland's Defence Ministry is reportedly considering joint military exercises with NATO.

Ukraine reportedly has deployed mobile groups to monitor nuclear and chemical threats.

In the last 24 hours Russia launched missile attacks and air strikes on Lviv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Luhansk oblasts.

Explosions from cruise missile attacks rocked the western city of Lviv.

Belarus has continued with the deployment of special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian forces are shelling along the border of Sumy region in the northeast of Ukraine enemy and attempted to break through to the Shostkyns'kyi district but failed.

A Russian missile attack struck “civilian targets” in the city of Okhtyrka, wounding at least five people.

Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops out of Kharkiv to the border of the Russian Federation in a move that could give the Russians the justification to use chemical and even nuclear weapons if Russia is invaded.

Russian forces are trying to advance towards Slovyansk in Donetsk Oblast and Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast, as well as along the entire frontline near the city of Donetsk.

Russia is changing tactics and is mounting night raids to overrun Ukrainian positions in the contested Donbas. Russia's twilight attacks have left Ukraine with need for strike and night vision drones to launch counterattacks.

Russian forces carried out missiles strikes from Su-35 aircraft near Bakhmut, Soledar, Kalynove, and Vovchoiarivka, in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Russian forces suffered losses in heavy fighting near Sievierodonetsk,

The Azov Regiment has continued to hold in the Azovstal complex at Mariupol.

Russian media is discussing a "Donetsk Nuremberg" for Azov Battalion fighters from Mariupol.

Russians forces are preparing for offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. They continue to strengthen their positions in the occupied areas.

Russia maybe transiting towards a long-term military operation in southern Ukraine with Russian troops building fortifications in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for defensive operations.

Ukraine destroyed the Russian fuel depot near Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast.

Russian missile strikes hit the bridge across the Dniester Estuary in Odesa Oblast for the fifth time. The bridge is badly damaged and will require costly and time-consuming repairs.

16 May 22

On the grand strategic level, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland have reportedly given security guarantees to Sweden and Finland.

Russia officials threatened Finland and Sweden in a statement that warned they may become targets for a military attack.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO)

military drills will be held in autumn. The military exercises will be held in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the framework of the of the CTSO.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have both warned of a full-scale or total Western hybrid war on Russia and Belarus in the past 48 hours.

Belarus’s deployment of special forces, air defense, and missile units along the Ukrainian border is an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing Donbas.

The Russian newspaper Vzgylad has published a commentary entitled "How to deprive the Ukrainian army of the brain." It called for decapitation strikes on command-and-control and communication centres in Ukraine, which would derail Ukrainian battle plans and allow for a Russian military lightening offensive against the country.

On the ground, Russia's Donbas offensive is moving to a Luhansk-centric strategy. Russia is ramping up its offensive on Sievierodonetsk, a city of 100,000 people which is critical for the annexation of Luhansk.

US intelligence believes Russia has committed 80 percent of Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) to Ukraine. Russia has 106 BTGs in the country, but still has a "majority" of the 140 BTGs deployed for the invasion.

Lviv is under heavy air attack now.

US has said that it has seen no indications that Russia's missile strikes against Yavoriv Military Base caused casualties. Russia's last attack on Yavoriv on March 13, where US used to train Ukrainian troops in country, killed up to 40 and wounded 134. The US believes that Russia fired a half-dozen missiles toward Yavoriv Military Base in the past 24 hours, likely from a submarine in the Black Sea.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russian troops shelled border villages in the Chernihiv Oblast.

Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops out of Kharkiv to within 2 miles of the border.

Russia is reported to be making some incremental gains in the Donbas with more progress toward Donetsk.

Russia has been "stymied" in efforts to cross the Donetsk River in Luhansk, and will likely need to reposition forces to gain ground.

Russian forces are shelling in Sievierodonetsk in moves geared to soften up the city ahead of a likely Russian siege at the strategic city key to taking Luhansk.

Russian forces shelled residential areas in Mykolaiv.

Russia has reportedly claimed a ceasefire deal reached to evacuate Ukrainian wounded soldiers from Mariupol.

It appears that the Azov Regiment may be about to the surrender the Azovstal complex.

According to a Ukrainian military May 16th report, the Russians are not conducting active offensive operations in southern Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. They continue to strengthen their positions in the occupied areas.

Russia launched a missile strike on tourist infrastructure in Odesa.

15 May 22

At the grand strategic level, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto has confirmed that Finland plans to apply for NATO membership.

It was reported that Sweden's ruling Social Democratic Party is poised to back NATO membership.

Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin believes that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will expand to include dozens of countries. The CSTO tried leverage its intervention in Kazakhstan to bolster its credibility but especially after the Ukraine war, expansion is unlikely.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on May 15th that 'Ukraine can win this war.' "Russia failed to take Kyiv. They're pulling back from around Kharkiv, their major offensive in Donbas has stalled. Russia is not achieving its strategic objectives."

Four missile attacks hit military infrastructure in Yavoriv in western Ukraine near the Polish border.

On the ground, UK Defense Ministry has reportedly said that Russia likely lost one third of its ground forces in Ukraine. Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and is unlikely to accelerate its pace in the next 30 days. As many as 150,000 Russian troops are believed to have been deployed for the invasion of Ukraine. NATO said in March that as many as 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded or been captured. The current number of Russian troops killed is debated, with Ukraine putting the total at 26,000.

It was reported that Russia has plans to send up to 2,500 reservists to Ukraine. The new recruits are being trained at training grounds in Russia’s Voronezh, Belgorod, and Rostov oblasts.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kharkiv and the city liberated.

South of Izyum, an assault by Russian forces to capture Dovhen'ke and Bohorodychne failed. Russian troops are attacking in the areas of Toshkivka and north of Popasna towards Komyshuvakha.

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne.

Despite losses, Russian forces continue to advance in the eastern Lyman, Sievierodonetsk, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv areas as they regroup units.

Russia’s defence ministry said its forces hit Ukrainian command posts, ammunition depots, and other military equipment in several regions including the Donbas.

Twelve Russian attacks were repelled in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions over the past 24 hours and eight tanks, five artillery systems, nine units of armored combat vehicles and five enemy vehicles were destroyed.

The Institute for the Study of War has said that a failed attempt by Russian troops to set up a pontoon bridge across the Siversky Donets River on May 11th “showed a stunning lack of tactical sense." In the battle the Russians may have lost the better part of a motor rifle brigade including some 400 troops killed and dozens of armoured vehicles destroyed.

Ukrainian soldiers under siege and air attacks at the Azovstal steel plant are fighting to the last man.

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Ukrainian forces are fighting fierce battles in Mykolaiv, 180 kilometres east of Odesa.

14 May 22

On the grand strategic level, it was reported that there is growing speculation that Kyrgyzstan might try to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union over Western sanctions and Russian media is warning of dire consequences if they do.

G7 Foreign ministers vowed on May 14th to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and work to ease global food shortages due to the war in Ukraine.

Lithuania reportedly wants more NATO forces in the Baltic region. Lithuania had around 3,000 NATO troops before the war but said that it could conceivably host 7,000 by the end of 2022.

The purge continues, Chief of the Russian general staff, General Valery Gerasimov, has reportedly been suspended for failures on the battlefield.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

It is preliminary but Ukraine has seemingly won the Battle of Kharkiv.

Russians forces fired five unguided aircraft missiles at villages in Sumy Oblast, close to the Russian border.

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kharkiv.

Russian forces shelled the Ukrainian border village Bleshnia in the Chernihiv Oblast.

Russia exhausted its combat-ready Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) and has started a covert mobilization of its Armed Forces.

The Russian Army has about 105 Russian BTGs in Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces are mounting "a stiff and an effective" resistance.

Russian military has continued its offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops are preparing to attack several cities in Donetsk Oblast, such as Sievierodonetsk, Soledar, and Bakhmut. Russia continues to launch airstrikes and shell the region with artillery.

There are over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers left at the Azovstal steel plant fighting to the last man. It was reported that there are about 600 wounded at the plant. One defender described their conditions as “simply terrible.” He went on to say that, “injured soldiers without limbs lie next to each other in unsanitary conditions, with flies, sounds of pain, and foul smells.”

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Ukrainian forces are fighting fierce battles in Mykolaiv, 180 kilometres east of Odesa.

13 May 22

On the grand strategic level, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda blasted comments by French President Macron's on the decades-long EU accession process for Ukraine. Nausea said, “My impression is that this is an attempt to cover up the obvious lack of political will to take decisive decisions on granting candidate status."

Russian MP Oleg Morozov has said that Poland is first in line for "denazification" after Ukraine. Morozov went on to say that rolling back NATO's borders to 1997 boundaries is a key Russian goal. Morozov said Russia could create "real threats to the security of new NATO members," such as the deployment of "appropriate missile systems" to Kaliningrad

Russian MP Adalbi Shkhagoshev warned that NATO's acceptance of Sweden and Finland will create intra-alliance rifts fuelled by critical comments on accession by Turkey.

Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia plans to hold a referendum on July 17th about joining Russia.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Russia keeps firing artillery at civilian targets in Sunny Oblast and launched an airstrike at the village of Tovstodubove.

It is preliminary but Ukraine has seemingly won the Battle of Kharkiv.

The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of the Ukrainian counteroffensives, the limited availability of Russian reinforcements and to prevent their units from encirclement near Izyum.

Russian troops continued efforts to advance all along the periphery of the Izyum-Donetsk city salient but made little progress.

To date Russian offensives in Donbas have been largely unsuccessful with offensives launched towards Oleksandrivka and Bohorodychne in Donetsk Oblast, as well as towards Zolote and Komyshuvakha in Luhansk Oblast largely stalled.

Intense fighting is taking place between Izyum and Slovyansk, but Russian forces have not been able to make much progress due to Ukrainian artillery fire.

After months of intense fighting Russian troops seized, Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast.

The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the north have made no significant progress. Russian forces coming north-to-south have failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts.

Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force.

Russian forces suffered heavy losses in Bilohorivka, which led to an entire Russian battalion refusing to fight. Almost 90 units of heavy equipment have already been destroyed by Ukrainian troops.

Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.

The Russian Army has resumed storming of Azovstal plant in Mariupol where at least 1,000 Ukrainian fighters refuse to surrender.

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Ukrainian forces are fighting fierce battles in Mykolaiv, 180 kilometres east of Odesa.

Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.

12 May 22

At the grand strategic level, NATO allies expect Finland and Sweden to apply to join the alliance in the coming days and will grant membership quickly.

Russia's Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy threatened Sweden and Finland warning, "As soon as Finland and Sweden become members of NATO and military units of the alliance are there, these territories will become a possible target for the Russian military."

Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned that NATO sending weapons, and training Ukrainians "increases the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia." Medvedev added that such conflict "can turn into a full-blown nuclear war."

Russian Senator Andrei Klimov threatened Latvia over its demolition of Soviet monuments in Riga.

Russian media is talking about withdrawing recognition of Lithuania as a country.

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place

Ukrainian military has expanded on the success of its counteroffensive around northeastern Kharkiv.

The counteroffensive is forcing Russian units still near the city to focus their bombardment on the attacking Ukrainian troops rather than continuing their attacks on the city itself.

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Russian forces likely control all of Rubizhne and have likely seized the town of Voevodivka, north of Severdonetsk. Russian forces are likely ready to launch a ground offensive on or around Severodonetsk in the near future.

Reports that Russian forces in Popasna are advancing north, toward Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, support the view that the Russians are giving up on the Izyum axis and moving to more limited attempts at encirclement of Ukrainian forces.

Russian troops have been trying to cut off the Severodonetsk area in Luhansk Oblast, where fighting is the most intense, from the rest of the Ukrainian troops in the Donbas.

Russian troops failed to seize the village of Oleksandrivka in Donetsk Oblast and the village of Voyevodivka in Luhansk Oblast.

The Russian Army has resumed storming of Azovstal plant in Mariupol where at least 1,000 Ukrainian fighters refuse to surrender. Russia has bombed the plant from the air and ground artillery, but had not risked the potentially high casualties of close-quarters combat.

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Ukrainian forces are fighting fierce battles in Mykolaiv, 180 kilometres east of Odesa.

Russian missiles have disabled Odesa’s airport runway and severed road connections north to the capital Kyiv and east to Transnistria.

11 May 22 On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place

Ukrainian military has expanded on the success of its counteroffensive around northeastern Kharkiv.

Russia has at least 19 Battalion Tactic Groups (BTGs) in the Belgorod area that may be used to counterattack toward Kharkiv.

Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna.

Russian forces have managed to seize control of Popasna, Nyzhnie, and Velyka Kormyshuvakha.

Russian forces may shift their efforts from the Izium Axis to the Lyman-Yampil axis and may be looking to isolate Slovyansk and Severdonetsk in two pockets.

Russian forces may be initiating a new advance towards Bakhmut after capturing Popasna in order to secure highway access north to Slovyansk.

There has been little activity in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast with Russian forces employing artillery and air strikes in support of limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, and Velyka Novosilka.

The Russian Army has resumed storming of Azovstal plant in Mariupol, despite a ceasefire declared earlier.

Russian units in Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.

It was reported that Russia brought additional artillery units to the north of the occupied Crimea and can use them to attack Kherson Oblast.

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

10 May 22

At the grand strategic level, Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, said the US Intelligence community believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans on a long Ukraine War and the US and NATO losing interest. They also revealed that he wanted to widen the war to Transnistria and Moldova. Intelligence suggests Putin might invoke martial law to support the war effort.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Western officials have accused Russia of mass cyberattack on satellite internet in Ukraine shortly before invasion severely disrupting Ukrainian Command and Control.

According to the EU Council, Russia could launch similar cyberattacks on other countries, “putting the security of Europe’s citizens at risk.”

Germany's Foreign Minister has said that Ukraine should become a member of the European Union.

At the operational level, Ukraine's airspace remains contested, and Russian aircraft are wary of venturing in too close especially with Slovakian-provided S-300s now in service. Russia is now up to 99 battalion tactical groups, after adding two airborne groups in the last day. Western officials believe Russia has deployed roughly 65-70 percent of its ground forces to Ukraine. The US believes that Russia has honed in on the northern line of advance out of Izyum into the Donbas, focused on Sloviansk. Two other advances have stalled due to Ukrainian resistance.Russia remains in control of Popasna. Russia still has 20 warships in the Black Sea, with many of them moving further away from the shore of western Ukraine to stay out of range of Neptune missiles that hit and destroyed the cruiser flagship Moskva. At present there is no indication that an amphibious assault on Odesa is coming.

On the ground, Belarus state-controlled news agency Belta reported that “to respond to the threat from the Armed Forces of Ukraine” the country is sending special operation forces to its border with Ukraine.

Air raid sirens sounded across several regions early on Tuesday, including Luhansk, Kharkiv and Dnipro. The Luhansk region was attacked 22 times. One person was killed and five were injured in the Black Sea port city of Odesa when seven missiles hit a shopping centre and a depot.

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv took further ground and have moved closed to within 10 kilometres of the Russian border.

Ukrainian forces liberated four settlements in Kharkiv Oblast including the villages of Cherkaski Tyshky, Ruski Tyshky, and Bairak, as well as the Rubizhne city.

Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled.

Russian forces in eastern Ukraine continued attempts to encircle the Severodonetsk area and reportedly reached the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative border from Popasna.

Russian troops shelled Sloviansk in the Donetsk Oblast targeting the central part of the city.

The Russian Army has resumed storming of Azovstal plant in Mariupol, despite a ceasefire declared earlier.

Russian and Ukrainian forces did not conduct any significant attacks on the southern axis.

Russian units in Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.

It was reported that Russia brought additional artillery units to the north of the occupied Crimea and can use them to attack Kherson Oblast.

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

The US believes Russia has "no ability" to threaten Ukraine's Black Sea port city of Odesa from the ground or sea.

Russian troops may be preparing for a renewed offensive on the Southern Axis.

Ukraine War Daily Summary

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