Ukraine War Daily Summary

20 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, and in an olive branch to Beijing, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has advised a bi-partisan group of Canadian Parliamentarians to exercise caution in a planned friendship visit to Taiwan.

Taiwan said 17 Chinese aircraft and five Chinese warships were detected operating around Taiwan on Saturday as Beijing continued military activities near the island.

The US and South Korea have warned reportedly that they will respond “sternly” to a North Korean nuclear test by deploying strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula.

The US has reportedly made several concessions to Iran in exchange for a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran International reported officials confirming the concessions the US agreed to include the removal of sanctions on 17 banks, the immediate release of $7 billion worth of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea and allowing the sale of 50 million barrels of Iranian oil in 120 days. According to Iran International, the concessions include the annulment of multiple executive orders signed by former US President Donald Trump. The impact will immediately fill the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps coffers to financial its network of 30 plus regional proxy militias to fund terror throughout the Middle East and leaves Iran a month or so away from a nuclear weapon.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented. Belarus extends military drills near Ukraine's borders until August 20th.

Ukrainian media and Belarusian opposition figures are warning that Russia is amassing significant forces in Belarus to fire missiles on Ukrainian cities with Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24th.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued but were less than the normal trend with impacts mostly in the southeast and south. Russian shelling continues to be heavy around Bakhmut, north of Donetsk and north of Kherson. There were some intensive phases onto Kramatorsk, Kharkiv and Siversk.

Russia has accused Ukraine of chemical terrorism against its forces. Ukraine has said that their illness was caused by expired canned meat.

On the ground, Ukraine's General Staff has said that Russia is concentrating on the Sloviansk axis of advance against Donetsk. This is a switch away from its focus on Bakhmut which could reflect Russia's confidence that it has enough personnel in Kherson to hold on to the oblast.

Fighting continues to be heavy around Bakhmut, Siversk and Soledar regions with Russian forces making some gains.

Around Izyum there were some continued attacks and some Russian units attempted to push through Ukrainian defences near Nova Dmytrivka to the southwest.

Fighting around Donetsk was heavy but with no changes of significance on the ground other than in Marinka which is now reportedly contested.

Russian troops conducted offensives near the villages of Blagodatne and Vasylky in Mykolaiv Oblast to “improve their tactical position.”

British intelligence has acknowledged that Ukraine is not making major progress in Kherson and there is growing speculation that Ukraine's Kherson blitz was a feint to divert Russian elite units and personnel away from Donetsk.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea remains high with much of the activity out of Sevastopol.

A Ukrainian drone strike may have hit the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters today. Russia has said the drone was taken down by anti-aircraft systems. This would be the second attempted strike on the Russian naval headquarters this month.

The newly appointed Commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov said on Friday that the fleet is to receive 12 new warships alongside additional aviation and land-based vehicles this year.

19 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) reportedly possesses the resources to field up to five aircraft carriers and 10 nuclear ballistic missile submarines by 2030.

The Biden administration has reportedly caved to Iranian demands on three points and offered concessions on the Iran nuclear deal.

Across the theatre, Russian and air missile strikes remained reduced yesterday, but increased overnight after Ukrainian attacks on Russian airfields in Russia and Crimea. Russian air activity increased across the south, especially around Mykolaiv. Russian shelling continued near Bakhmut and around Donetsk city. Heavy shelling was also reported north of Kherson, north of Donetsk, northeast of Kharkiv and into Sumy Oblast.

A Western official estimates the attack on Saky airfield in Crimea by Ukraine 'put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use.

On the ground, fighting continues to be significant near Bakhmut, Soledar and around Donetsk. Russian forces made gains towards Bakhmut, but attacks near Soledar were repelled.

Ukrainian counter-attacks continued to re-secure ground south of Izyum with some more Russian units moving north out of Izyum back along their resupply corridor towards Russia. It seems a number of Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) have now withdrawn.

Russian forces made gains around Donetsk with bouts of heavy fighting.

There are increasing concerns of an accident or deliberate incident at the damaged Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant occupied by the Russian military. Russia is warning of an imminent catastrophe in Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian counter-attacks continued to advance on the ground and destroy Russian defences.

Around Kherson Russian resistance continued to launch offensives against a growing Ukrainian counter-offensive. Russia has significant military resources in this region now, but Ukrainian forces continue to strike defences with artillery and airstrikes.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov remains active.

18 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Lviv, Ukraine on Thursday to discuss the situation at the Russian-occupied and damaged Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and grain shipments, along with finding a political solution to the conflict.

A radiation release from the plant would immediately effect Ukraine and NATO frontline states in the Baltics, Poland, and NATO’s southern flank.

Russia has told its staff to leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and not come to work tomorrow. The Russians are reportedly preparing for a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Russia has reportedly deployed MiG-31 fighters with Kinzhals hypersonic missiles to Kaliningrad as a warning to Poland and Lithuania, which both support visa bans for Russians.

Six Chinese PLAN warships and 51 PLA aircraft were engaged in war frames surrounding Taiwan. Taiwan's Defense Ministry said that 25 military aircraft dispatched by China crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo Jong has once again threatened South Korea this time over North Korean defectors sending balloons across the border with anti- North propaganda that she has blamed for Covid entering the country. A Korean-language version, translated by NK News, a website in Seoul, quoted her as saying, “If the enemies continue to conduct dangerous shit that might bring virus into DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea], we will answer that by exterminating not only those viruses but also South Korean authorities, those little bastards,” NK News quotes her as saying. Worse still, “We are already reviewing various response measures. It has to be a very strong, retaliatory response.” There is a fear that she is threatening either a chemical or biological attack on the South.

In addition to threats against former US National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Islamic Republic has surveilled members of the US think tank community. Individuals working on behalf of the Iranian government have targeted several prominent members of the think tank community through both in-person surveillance and cyber operations. At the center of Tehran’s campaign is United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), a US-based advocacy group promoting policy to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Sources indicate that Iran’s targets within the organization’s ranks include UANI CEO and former George W. Bush administration official Mark Wallace, former Democratic US Senator Joe Lieberman, former National Security Adviser John Bolton, and Thomas Kaplan, an American billionaire and UANI’s original funder.

Estonia has repelled Russia's largest cyberattacks since 2007 when it shutdown the countries critical infrastructure including its financial and banking system. The sweeping array of Distributed Denial of Service attacks targeted public and private sector institutions in Estonia.

Denmark announces $5.47 billion in investments in new warships. Denmark's drastic expansion of defence investments in response to the 2022 Ukraine war contrasts with its reluctance to increase military spending after the Crimea annexation in 2014.

It also builds on Denmark's post-2014 commitment to NATO's Baltic Sea deterrence strategy.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued but were significantly reduced from the previous day. The majority of impacts were in the southeast in the Bakhmut and Donetsk regions and in the south. Russian air activity was reduced. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Bakhmut and around Donetsk, but more sporadic in most other impacted regions.

There are reports of a number of incidents in Russia and Crimea yet unverified that the Stary Oskol Airfield and a large central ammunition and weapons depot, both in Belgorod Oblast have been attacked causing significant damage. There are reports of explosions at the Russian Belbek Airfield in Crimea where Russia had moved some fighter aircraft to just today.

On the ground, there was some activity near Kharkiv with Russian forces launching attacks on Lebyazhe and Bazaliivka.

Fighting continues to be intensive near Soledar and around Bakhmut where Russian forces made gains. There was less activity near Siversk with no effect.

Around Izyum fighting continues, but Russian offensives here remain mostly stalled. Ukrainian forces continue to re-secure some ground south of Izyum.

Around Donetsk fighting continued with Russian forces yesterday concentrating on moving on Mar'inka with some success.

Chechnya is reportedly recruiting four battalions to fight in Ukraine.

East of Zaporizhzhia Russian forces are trying to reinforce frontlines with Ukrainian forces advancing towards them around Polohy from the north and west.

Around Kherson Russian resistance continues to be significant with Russian units launching significant counter-attacks on Ukrainian forces near Blahodatne.

Ukrainian forces continue to destroy Russian defences and major supply base in occupied regions with significant attacks on Kyrylivka on the Sea of Azov coast.

Ukraine's General Staff has confirmed that Russia moved two Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) to southern Ukraine including at least one of them to Crimea.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea seems to be conducting rotations with vessels in and out of Crimean ports over the last 24 hours likely to avoid attack.

17 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, NATO has said that it will increase its presence in Kosovo if tensions with Serbia escalate. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made the statement at a joint press conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Brussels. NATO's peacekeeping force currently has close to 4,000 troops in Kosovo and has already increased its presence in the north.

Naval forces from Australia, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the US Missile Defense Agency, and the US 3rd Fleet concluded their first iteration of a Missile Defense exercise in Pacific Dragon 2022.

China's Defense Ministry said Chinese troops will participation in Russia's "Vostok" drills, scheduled for August 30th to September 5th and is part of bilateral cooperation and is unrelated to the current international and regional situation.

South Korea's military has said North Korea appears to have fired two cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea to the west of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea fired eight Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) from outside the capital Pyongyang and elsewhere in June. It also reportedly fired rockets toward the Yellow Sea on July 10th and 11th. A North Korean nuclear test is believed to be imminent as well.

Israel's political leadership is reported to be increasingly of the view that Iran is preparing to sign the new nuclear agreement the US and EU although no understandings have been reached so far on a series of issues in dispute between Iran on the one hand and the United States and Europe on the other. The Israeli government believes Iran is foot dragging on the deal to force concessions from the West even if it means backtracking on promises to Israel to get a deal. Iran has enough highly enriched uranium for at least one nuclear weapon and is likely a matter of months away from having a nuclear bomb.

The Russian Defence Ministry signed supply contracts worth $8 billion for Sarmat Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) S-500 air defence systems and Su-34 jets for Russian troops.

The Military enlistment office in Russia's Smolensk Oblast has practiced handing out conscription notices in a sign Russia maybe considering moving to full mobilization for the Ukraine war. The "training run" for general mobilization was held on August 16th to assess the performance of enlistment centres. Conscription notices were handed out to both reservists and men under 60 and on the military register. Previous to this and to try and avoid mobilization Russia has recruited prisoners with military service, recently released personnel, mercenaries from Chechnya, Syria and Libya, and forcibly conscripting Ukrainians from Russian occupied territories to fight but still has not made up for as many as 80,000 dead or wounded troops.

Additionally, Ukraine's intelligence services are supporting reports that Russia is trying to recruit Central Asian mercenaries. Russia is reportedly conducting a recruitment campaign targeting citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Russia's recruitment efforts in Chechnya have reportedly run into trouble due to coercive recruitment tactics, which include threats of prosecution and torture.

Across the theatre, Russian cyberhackers launch a major three hour attack on Ukraine's state nuclear power company Energoatom‘s website

Russian air and missile strikes continued with an increase in number reported and a possible retaliatory strike for the Saki airbase attack. A Ukrainian airfield was targeted in the Zhytomyr region, west of Kyiv with Russian Su-34 aircraft targeting the runway, buildings and cruise missile launchers. Damage assessments are reportedly ongoing. Russian shelling ha continued to be heavy around parts of Bakhmut, north of Donetsk and north of Kherson.

On the ground, the Russian mercenary Wagner Group has reportedly carried out military operations in the outskirts of Bakhmut and is trying to reach the Donetsk battleground from the north and south.

Fighting also continues sporadically near Siversk and Soledar, with the fiercest fighting towards Bakhmut.

South and west of Izyum Ukrainian forces conducted more localised counter-attacks, with Russian forces still struggling to move out of Izyum. Ukrainian forces re-secured more roads and settlements south of Izyum.

Fighting north and southwest of Donetsk is ongoing with reports some Russian units made gains in the southwest.

East of Zaporizhzhia there are no significant changes to report on the ground.

Around Kherson Russian forces conducted some significant offensives yesterday to push back the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

As part of the Ukrainian forces major southern counter-offensive there are unverified reports of some Ukrainian Special Forces units operating within Crimea with partisan support.

Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has said the Kerch Bridge is a viable military target for Ukraine. The Kerch Bridge was established in 2018 as a corridor between Russia and Crimea. Russian lawmakers have warned that Russia could strike Ukraine pre-emptively to deter this attack.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea remains unchanged.

Russia's appointment of Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov as Black Sea Fleet commander clarifies the personnel shuffle that followed the Moskva sinking. Admiral Igor Osipov was reportedly dismissed after the Moskva was sunk. Sokolov has extensive experience in Russia's Northern Fleet but much like other generals in the Ukraine war, Sokolov took part in naval operations off Syria's coast in 2016. Sokolov spearheaded the Admiral Kuznetsov's historic naval-air operations in Syria.

16 Aug 22

At the Moscow international Security Conference Russian President Vladimir Putin sounded the alarm about the West's creation of NATO in the Asia-Pacific region in a strong appeal to China.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command on Monday organized war games and live- fire drills in the sea areas and airspace around Taiwan island, after five US lawmakers visited Taiwan island just 12 days following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit.

China has now launched over 500 warplanes near Taiwan over the past 15 days.

The US military on Tuesday said it carried out a test of a Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that had been delayed to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing during China's show of force near Taiwan earlier this month.

Iran said Tuesday it submitted a “written response” to what has been described as a final roadmap to restore its nuclear deal with world powers. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency offered no details on the substance of its response, but suggested that Tehran still wouldn’t take the EU-mediated proposal, despite warnings there would be no more negotiations.

The US, South Korea and Japan participated in a ballistic missile defense exercise off Hawaii’s coast last week with an eye on North Korea.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes have continued but remain significantly reduced with impacts mostly in the south and southeast and with still no obvious retaliatory strike for the Saki airbase attack. Russian air activity increased mostly in the south and southeast and especially around Kherson. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Kharkiv, Bakhmut and, north of Donetsk, and Slovyansk.

On the ground, Russian forces conducted localised offensives to the northeast of Kharkiv but without real gains.

Heavy fighting continues near Bakhmut and east of Soledar, but with no gains by Russian forces. Russian Special Operations Forces (SOF) remain active east of Siversk. Russian aircraft conducted several airstrikes against Ukrainian units near Soledar, Yakovlivka and Sprine.

Around Izyum fighting remains reduced with no Russian movements reported out of their forward operating base.

North of Donetsk heavy fighting occurred on the fringes of Pisky where Russian units pushed through and now Pisky is contested.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian forces attacked Russian resupply vehicles, but made minimal gains in their counter-offensive.

Around Kherson the Ukrainian counter-offensive is gaining significant momentum with Ukrainian forces re-securing strategic roads and settlements.

As Russian forces relocate from Kherson to Melitopol, railway links from Crimea to Melitopol are increasingly important targets for the Ukrainian military.

Several explosions were heard at a military air base in the village of Hvardiiske, not far from Simferopol in Crimea.

15 Aug 22

Ukrainian media are reporting rumours that Russian President Vladimir Putin has cancer that may be in remission or another serious disease. This is not the first time these reports have emerged in the last two years or so and unconfirmed.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has confirmed that Germany will not support an EU-wide ban on Russian visas.

China’s PLA Eastern Theater announced five PLAN vessels and 30 PLA aircraft today took part in a new round of war games around Taiwan following the latest US Congressional visit. Some 15 of the detected aircraft had flown on the east part of the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned in response to the latest US Congressional visit that ‘in response to every provocation blatantly launched by the US, China has to take necessary and legitimate countermeasures, which is part of the legitimate right of safeguarding the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.’

North Korean state media said Russian President Vladimir Putin told leader Kim Jong Un that the two countries would pursue “comprehensive and constructive” ties after North Korea promised Russia 100,000 soldiers for fighting in Ukraine.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes have continued but remain subdued against normal trends, and with no obvious retaliatory strikes for this weeks attack by Ukrainian forces on Saki Naval airbase. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Bakhmut, north of Donetsk, and north of Kherson. Some Russian shelling increased towards Kramatorsk, into the Sumy region and north of Kharkiv.

On the ground, Ukrainian forces reported heavy Russian shelling and attempts to advance on several towns in the eastern region of Donetsk that has become a key focus of the near six-month phase of the war. While Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson will continue to focus on attacks on the city

The remainder of the Kherson oblast is mostly rural so it will be a secondary priority, as Ukraine tries to expel Russia before Russia tries to annex Kherson.

Fighting has increased on and around Siversk with Russian Special Operation Forces (SOF) attacking from at least three axis. Russian SOF also attacked Serebryanka near in Siversk fierce fighting.

Russian PMC forces attacked Kodema and Zaitseve and new defensive lines south of Bakhmut.

Around Izyum there was minimal fighting with clashes reported around Dolyna to the south.

North of Donetsk there was heavy fighting around Yakovlivka and sporadic ground fighting elsewhere in the region.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia there were some artillery exchanges and some airstrikes by Ukrainian aircraft, but no real changes on the ground.

It was reported that Russian shelling poses a serious threat to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's radiation safety. Ukraine's state nuclear monopoly Energoatom has warned,

"There are risks of hydrogen leakage and spraying of radioactive substances, and the risk of fire is high."

Around Kherson artillery exchanges continue with Russian Commanders and command posts relocating back across the Dnipro river to more secure locations as Ukrainian forces slowly move to the east.

14 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, a delegation of US lawmakers is visiting Taiwan, just 12 days after a visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that angered China. China responded to Pelosi’s visit by sending missiles, warships and warplanes into the seas and air around Taiwan.

Belarus 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented. Belarus extends military drills near Ukraine's borders until August 20th.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes have continued but remain subdued against normal trends, and with no obvious retaliatory strikes for this weeks attack by Ukrainian forces on Saki Naval airbase. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Bakhmut, north of Donetsk, and north of Kherson. There was renewed shelling on Kramatorsk and shelling on Zaporizhzhia.

On the ground as Russia pushed its Donetsk offensive fighting increased again near Donetsk with significant activity around Pisky, Oleksandropil, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka and Maryinka.

Fighting continues southeast of Siversk near Vyimka where Russian Special Forces are active and further south around Soledar, but the heavier fighting remains around Bakhmut.

Most other Russian units including the Airborne units near Izyum have redeployed to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to bolster Russian defences and likely conduct a new offensive.

Some fighting continued west of Izyum while south of Izyum Ukrainian forces re-secured more ground. Russian forces continue to heavily secure their resupply corridor from the north into their Izyum.

Around Kherson there are reports Russian forces launched a large attack against the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Lozove and Shyroke.

Ukrainian forces and partisan units continue to target and sabotage Russian defences, resupplies, railway and other critical infrastructure in and around Kherson.

The Antonivsky Bridge across the Dnipro River has been hit again. The bridge has been hit repeatedly by the Ukrainian army, making it difficult for Russian troops to cross the river. Ukrainian forces also attacked a railway bridge in Kherson and a bridge near the town of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea has slowed but this maybe the calm before the storm with cruise missile carrying warships of the fleet likely to launch the retaliatory strikes against UKrainian targets including Kyiv for the Saki naval air base attack.

13 Aug 22

China has now launched 418 fighter jets and other aircraft over the past 12 days near Taiwan after another 29 were dispatched today following the Pelosi visit. Some 13 Chinese planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait on Saturday.

The US, and many other countries, have their own "one China" policies and they do not accept China's "one China" principle. UN Res. 2758 didn't mention Taiwan nor bar its participation in the UN.

General Sir Jim Hockenhull said there was nothing unusual about the trip to the island by the US Speaker, this month but China’s response was “completely disproportionate”. In his first interview since becoming head of Strategic Command, which oversees military intelligence, the man who predicted President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine said he was “concerned” about the way China was deploying its growing military power. “The scale of it was completely disproportionate. My fear is that there’s a risk of setting a new normal. So by acting in this way, there’s a risk the Chinese government thinks that’s now a baseline for the way in which they can operate.”

According to Ukraine's GUR intelligence service, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to unveil $10 billion in additional defence order spending in early September and this is a sign that Russia is preparing for a protracted war.

Russian air and missile strikes have continued but remain subdued against normal trends, and with no obvious retaliatory strikes for this weeks attack by Ukrainian forces on Saki Naval airbase. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Bakhmut, north of Donetsk, and north of Kherson. There was renewed shelling on Kramatorsk and shelling on Zaporizhzhia.

Heavy fighting continued around and towards Bakhmut. Russian forces made some gains along the resupply highway towards Bakhmut from the east.

Fighting also continued west of Vershyna, on threes sides of Dacha and east of Kodema. Ukrainian forces conducted a tactical withdrawal from Zaitseve to the south which is now under Russian control.

There were some clashes near Soledar and Siversk after a period of calm. Siversk is becoming very active again with Russian Private Contractors and some now Special Operations Forces units looking to push into Ivano-Dar'ivka.

Around Izyum clashes occurred to the west of the city and around Husarivka to the northwest where Russian forces are trying to reinforce their Izyum FOB resupply corridor to Belgorod.

Russia’s offensive near Donetsk has continued with heavy fighting with the Russian forces aiming to break the Ukrainian defense lines near Avdiivka, Pisky, Mariinka, Oleksandropil, and Krasnohorivka, in Donetsk Oblast.

North of Donetsk fighting continued to be heavy around Pisky. Russia has claimed control over Pisky in Donetsk and used thermobaric weapons there.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East and southeast of Zaporizhzhia there was Ukrainian air activity with reports of more Russian artillery units and armoured vehicles destroyed in strikes.

Around Kherson some shelling exchanges were intensive. Ukrainian artillery attacked the Nova Kakhovka region again to the northeast of Kherson hitting Russian defences, reinforcements and striking the Dam.

British intelligence believes that the two primary bridges that link to Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro River are not usable And that Russian forces will now have resupply challenges.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea continues to be of a high tempo with increased air activity reported too.

12 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, It was reported that Moscow’s dependence on Beijing since it invasion of Ukraine will grant China tremendous leverage, and it will be able to extract concessions from Russia that previously would have been seen as absurdly one-sided.

Two Russian surveillance aircraft entered the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone on separate occasions this week. The two Russian aircraft did not enter US or Canadian sovereign airspace.

The National Security Council spokesman Kurt Campbell has told reporters that President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping "discussed a possible face to face meeting during their recent call and agreed to have their team's follow up to sort out the specifics."

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warned on Tuesday that China was using its ongoing military exercises around Taiwan to normalize greater military activity in the Taiwan Strait.

US State Department Principal Deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel has warned that the US Is concerned about North Korea’s “strengthened rhetoric” surrounding nuclear weapons. His comments came the same day that North Korean state media published a speech by Kim Jong -Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong in which she threatened to “exterminate” South Korean leaders.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented/. Belarus extends military drills near Ukraine's borders until August 20th.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued but were significantly reduced with no sign of any obvious retaliatory strikes for the Saki airbase attack this week. Russian air activity was also more subdued. Heavy Russian shelling continued around Bakhmut, north of Donetsk, and north of Kherson, with shelling exchanges significantly increased across the Slovyansk frontlines.

In a suspected HIMARS strike on July 8th/9th on the 20th Motorized Rifle Division's headquarters killed UKrainian forces are believed to have killed the Divisional commanding officer, chief of staff, two deputy commanders, deputy chief of logistics, and possibly the artillery commander.

On the ground, Ukrainian Special Forces and partisan attacks continue behind enemy lines and in occupied regions with sabotage attacks on railway and other infrastructure, fuel supplies and assassinations reported.

US is seeing Ukrainian gains over Russia near the country’s second-largest city of Kharkiv that have put the Russian military “on their heels.”

Fighting continues to be its most fierce around Bakhmut with activity around much of the south and east.

Russian forces attacked Zaitseve, Dacha, and Kodema and all were eventually repelled.

Some fighting continues east of Soledar with more indications of Russian units moving south. Near Siversk Russian Private Contractors tried to move into Hryorivka, but were repelled.

Around Izyum fighting occurred west of the city in the forests where Ukrainian forces have consolidated and as Russian forces continue to move units back to the north. There was no significant activity elsewhere around Izyum.

North of Donetsk fighting continues to escalate with Russian forces attacking Pisky with TOS-1 thermobaric rockets. Russian forces also attacked Yakovlivka, but with no significant changes on the ground.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian forces counter-offensive operations on the ground made modest gains.

Around Kherson Ukrainian forces hit Russian defensive positions around Vesele and targeted more strategic infrastructure and defensive positions in and around the Kherson region including Bruskynske.

11 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) former head of the Asia-Pacific desk Michel Juneau-Katsura has revealed to a Commons Committee that the foreign interference from China reaches all the way into the federal government and that there are elected officials at all levels being paid by foreign governments and who are not acting in the interests of Canada.

In a major blow to China's diplomatic efforts in Europe, Estonia and Latvia have quit the exclusive ‘17 + 1’ club formed by Beijing, following China's declaration of a "no-limits" friendship with Vladimir Putin.

Iran has reportedly been plotting to murder two former US National Security Advisors, a former Secretary of State, a former Secretary of Defense, and a former Iran envoy. The US response to date? A statement, an indictment, but still offering billions in sanctions relief.

According to his sister, Kim Yo Jong, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un appears to have contracted Covid-19 and could be seriously ill.

There are signs Russia may use some type of Nuclear blackmail as it uses occupied Nuclear facilities as military zones.

The G7 and IAEA has urged Russia to hand control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant back to Ukrainian experts, due to shelling and military activity there increasing significantly the safety risks to the damaged nuclear plant.

Commercial Satellite imagery is now reportedly confirming significant damage at the Russian Saki Naval Airbase in Crimea with many aircraft and vehicles destroyed and the runway apron badly damaged by cruise missile strikes.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued in Ukraine, but without any significant increase. It is likely Russia is still planning its retaliatory strikes or actions for the Saki attack. Russian shelling continued to be heavy east and south of Bakhmut, north of Donetsk and north of Kherson and sporadic in other regions.

On the ground, Kharkiv was shelled again, but there were no Russian ground movements of significance around Kharkiv.

Heavy fighting has continued around Soledar, towards Bakhmut and Siversk where Russian Private Contractors are taking losses.

Near Izyum a Russian forces tried to break through defensive lines near Velyka Komyshuvakha, but failed. There continued to be little fighting activity around Izyum with indications of some Russian units withdrawing north.

Ukrainian forces conducted localized counter-attacks south of Izyum and towards Lyman re-securing strategic roads and a number of small settlements.

North of Donetsk there were continued localized Russian offensives near Avdiyivka and Pisky.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian forces made significant ground around Polohy.

Some 500 Russian troops with heavy vehicles and weapons are currently stationed in the heavily damaged Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant essentially sheltering them from Ukrainian attacks.

Russian long-range artillery and missiles have targeted Russian occupied regions again. Melitopol and Kherson were targeted again and the Russian city of Yeisk, located across the Sea of Azov from Mariupol reported an Oil facility on fire after explosions.

Ukrainian forces continue to face heavy resistance around Kherson. Russian forces tried to push back the Ukrainian counter-offensive near Blahodatne, but were repelled.

10 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, China has reportedly concluded military exercises held around Taiwan in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit.

China deployed 36 more aircraft Wednesday, including 17 fighter jets that crossed median line, near Taiwan. Some 10 Chinese warships are sailing offshore of the besieged Island state.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official has been charged in plot to assassinate former National Security Adviser John Bolton on American soil.

US President Joe Biden signed documents endorsing Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, in the most significant expansion of the military alliance since the 1990s.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued but were less than the usual trend with the south and southeast reporting the majority of impacts. Russian air activity remains less than the normal with the exception of around the South Buh area. Russian shelling was heavy around Bakhmut, north and west of Donetsk City and north of Kherson and sporadic elsewhere.

There are reports that Ukrainian forces have conducted a strike on the Russian Saki Naval airbase in Crimea. The Russian military confirmed explosions at Saki saying the cause was a munitions storage Incident. It is likely a significant number of Russian aircraft and vehicles were destroyed in the attack.

The US believes Russian officials have begun training on drones in Iran over the last several weeks in the latest sign that Russia intends to purchase the systems for the war in Ukraine.

On the ground, UK military intelligence has assessed that Russia has establishes a new ground forces formation to wage war in Ukraine. The formation, called the 3rd Army Corps (3 AC), is based in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Recruitment is open to men up to 50 years old and with only middle-school education. A Russian Army Corps is typically 15-20,000 soldiers.

Heavy fighting continued around Bakhmut and near Soledar. Fighting also increased west of Vershyna and around Kodema as several Russian units continued to relocate south. Around Izyum fighting has reduced significantly.

There was heavy fighting north of Donetsk and around Pinsky as Russian forces attempt to push north.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

Fighting continues to increase and intensify east of Zaporizhzhia with Russian reinforcements being sent into the region and a Ukrainian counter-offensive underway.

Some 500 Russian troops with heavy vehicles and weapons are currently stationed in the heavily damaged Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant essentially sheltering them from Ukrainian attacks.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kherson is making slow, but steady progress

9 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, China has announced new extended war games surrounding Taiwan to further squeeze and intimidate the Island. Taiwan for its part announce new live fire artillery drills. Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu has said China is using the military exercises to 'prepare for invasion' if Taiwan. He went on to warn that China wants to establish its dominance in the western Pacific including control of the East and South China Seas via the Taiwan Strait and imposing a blockade to prevent the US and its allies from aiding Taiwan in the event of an attack. Some 10 PLAN vessels and 45 PLA aircraft were deployed around Taiwan today. Some these aircraft SU-30 and J-16 fighter planes flew to the east part of the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

Iran's Khayyam satellite will be launched from the Russian-operated Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan today. Iran has claimed that it will have full control of the Khayyam satellite from the outset. However, there are persistent reports that Russia will use the satellite for surveillance of military targets in Ukraine.

Finland has announced that it is sending personnel to Britain to train Ukrainian soldiers. This move will deepen Finland's integration with NATO as Sweden has also deployed a contingent to train Ukrainian forces in Britain.

Russian and air missile strikes continued but were less than the previous 24hrs. Russian air activity increased around Donetsk, north of Kherson and north of Izyum. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Bakhmut, parts of Kherson Oblast, and west of Donetsk city.

Russian Forces continues to carry out attacks to the north, east and South of Kharkiv in an attempt to protect its supply routes to the south and potentially prepare the ground for a renewed offensive against Kharkiv from Belgorod.

Fighting around Siversk has slowed as Russian units continue to relocate towards Bakhmut and Donetsk.

South of Izyum and around Slovyansk Russian forces are are completely stalled and loosing ground back to localised Ukrainian counter-attacks.

North of Izyum Russian forces continue to move some units out of their FOB with indications they plan to withdraw some back to Belgorod.

Around Donetsk City some ground fighting has increased as Russian forces attempted to break through defensive lines around Maryinka and Shevchenko.

Russia continues its heavy effort to move on Bakhmut, but has taken significant losses in trying to do so.

Around Kherson there continued to be more Ukrainian airstrikes and heavy fighting near Snihurivka and further minor advances in the Ukrainian counter-offensives around Kherson and east of the Inhulets further north.

Nikopol is becoming a key battleground in southern Ukraine due to its proximity to the damaged Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

One person has been killed and several others wounded by explosions at a military airbase at Saki, Crimea.

Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea continues to be high, including near Snake island. Ukrainian and NATO forces are monitoring this closely as some agreed Ukrainian commercial shipping continues to sail to Turkey.

8 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, Some 13 PLAN vessels and 39 PLA aircraft were around Taiwan after China announced new exercises to intimidate Taipei. Some, 21 PLA warplanes entered Taiwan’s ADIZ. The Chinese war games are simulated with regard to a blockade and seizure of Taiwan as well as attacks on US forces in the region. Among other things the exercises are a chance for the PLA to find out whether Taiwan’s air defenses were able to pick up their missile launches and how Taiwan’s civil defenses would respond to an attack.

An agreement on restoring Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers could be near after another round of negotiations led to a “final text” circulated by the European Union.

Russia has announced that it is temporarily withdrawing its facilities from inspections under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). START was signed in 2010 and is expected to last until 2026. The treaty provides for 18 on-site inspections per year for US and Russian nuclear arsenals.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes increased slightly with Impacts reported in the east, southeast, south and in the west in the Vinnytsia Oblast. Russian shelling continues to be heavy around Bakhmut and north of Kherson with most other regions seeing sporadic exchanges.

On the ground, the Pentagon believes that as many as 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russian forces have continued moving south, east of Siversk and near Soledar.

Russian forces continued to launch attacks around Bakhmut with air support, but only minimal gains.

Ukraine has reportedly repelled a Russian offensive, toward Avdiivka, Pisky, Zaitseve, Vershyna, and Kodema in Donetsk Oblast.

Ukraine’s General Staff also said that Ukrainian troops had repelled Russian advances towards Bakhmut, Zaitseve, Vershyna, and Kodema in Donetsk Oblast.

There was fighting near Nova Husarivka as Ukrainian forces tried to harass the Russian resupply corridor but were no moves of significance elsewhere around Izyum.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

Russia is relocating many units to the Kherson and west Zaporizhia Oblast to reinforce the significantly strategic Kherson City it occupies. A significant redeployment of Russian aircraft has been sent to Crimea in another indication Russia sees Kherson as its priority. Russia is transferring military equipment from Melitipol, Berdiansk and Mariupol, and from its mainland territory via the Kerch Strait to Crimea exemplify Russia's pivot to southern Ukraine.

Fighting has increased significantly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as Russian forces reinforce their lines towards Kherson while protecting their Dnipro river gains.

Russian Major General Valery Vasilyev, who heads radiation, biological and chemical defence has said the damaged Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will either be Russian or no ones.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kherson continues with several long range artillery attacks in and around it targeting Russian reinforcements, communications and resupply points.

While the Antonivskyi bridge is often viewed as Ukraine's prime infrastructure target for the Kherson offensive, Ukraine is also stepping up operations against the Kakhovskyi bridge attacking both bridges at the same time.

7 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, a Major General of the People's Liberation Army has warned that the separation of the two sides of the strait can no longer go on. The Chinese people are looking forward to reunification at an early date. The reunification of Taiwan is a showdown, and no one can stop it.

China sent 66 more aircraft near Taiwan today, including 22 that crossed the median line. Beijing has dispatched 224 warplanes near the island over the past six days. China has announced additional live-fire drills in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. China has announced its intention to regularly conduct exercises east of the median line in the Taiwan Strait. China's navigational warnings and NOTAMs for military exercises around Taiwan have expired.

Taiwan said its army would conduct live fire artillery exercises in southern Pingtung County.

The Commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Khaled Mansour, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

Across the theatre, Russia continues to launch cruise missile attacks from the land, sea and air, mainly directed at south, southeast and Kharkiv continued but the number as a trend continues to decline. Russian air activity increased in the south, but remained mostly reduced elsewhere. Russian shelling continues to be heavy around Bakhmut, south of Donetsk, And east of Zaporizhzhia and northwest of Kherson with most other regions seeing sporadic exchanges.

On the ground, Russian Forces continues to carry out attacks to the north, east and South of Kharkiv in an attempt to protect its supply routes to the south and potentially prepare the ground for a renewed offensive against Kharkiv from Belgorod.

Heavy fighting continues near Soledar and Bakhmut and east of Bakhmut where Russian Private Contractors are assisting with the fighting near Pokrovs'ke.

There was continued fighting west of Izyum, with Russian movements north of the city.

Near Soledar Russian forces attacked Yakovilvka and they also pushed north from the south towards Soledar.

North of Donetsk a coordinated Russian offensive on Avdiivka from three axis was repelled by Ukrainian forces.

Pisky, the scene of heavy fighting, is now contested likely to fall to Russian forces.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

There are further reports of increased Russian Naval and air activity out of Sevastopol.

Ukraine’s nuclear operator Energoatom confirmed the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been “seriously damaged”, and that one of its reactors was forced to shut down.

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, has warned after shelling damaged parts of the compound on Friday, saying any fighting close to the nuclear site amounts to “playing with fire”.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kherson continues with several long range artillery attacks in and around it targeting Russian reinforcements, communications and resupply points.

6 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, Australia, Japan and the US have issued a joint statement in the wake of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting condemning China's launch of ballistic missiles, and urging Beijing to immediately cease military operations.

It was reported that China is ‘convinced it needs to hit the US with a Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack’ to win war over Taiwan.

It appears that Chinese war games around Taiwan are simulated to carry out a major assault on the Island. Some 20 Chinese PLA aircraft and 14 PLA warships have conducted joint naval and air exercises around the waters near Taiwan today. Based on the flight paths released, a Y-20 aerial refuelling aircraft also entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ. PLA forces practiced amphibious landings as part of their military drills amid high tension with Taiwan. US military commanders made multiple attempts to contact Chinese colleagues amid the tensions around but all these efforts turned out to be futile. Taiwan's key official leading missile production Yang Li-hsing, deputy head of the military-owned National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) has reportedly been found dead in hotel of a ‘heart attack.’

UN experts have report that North Korea is testing “nuclear triggering devices” and that its preparations for another nuclear test were at a final stage in June.

The Commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Major General Hossein Salami said on Saturday that Israel would pay a high price for its latest attacks on the Palestinians in Gaza

Over 200 rockets have been launched toward Israel in less than 24 hours as the IDF continues Operation Breaking Dawn, targeting the Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip.

Across the theatre, Russia continues to launch cruise missile attacks from the land, sea and air, mainly directed at south and southeast continued but the number as a trend continues to decline. Rotary aircraft continues to be active, but Close Air Support and SEAD operations by fighter aircraft and UAV activity have all declined with much of the activity in the southeast. Russian shelling continues to be heavy around Bakhmut and south of Donetsk, with most other regions seeing sporadic exchanges. Expect to see a fresh phase of missiles targeting Kyiv and other western Ukraine cities.

Fighting around Siversk continues to decline with most Russian forces moving south towards the Bakhmut offensive. There has been more heavy fighting around Bakhmut but only minimal Russian gains.

Ukrainian forces continue to put pressure on Russia’s regional Forward Operating Base in west Izyum with fighting ongoing in the city fringes to the west and frustrating Russian operations towards Slovyansk.

Ukrainian forces re-secured more settlements, roads and other strategic locations this week south of Izyum.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

There are further reports of increased Russian Naval and air activity out of Sevastopol.

Parts of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have been “seriously damaged” by military strikes.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kherson continues with several long range artillery attacks in and around it targeting Russian reinforcements, communications and resupply points.

Further north Ukrainian forces targeted the Darevsky bridge across the Inhulets river to interrupt Russian reinforcements into the region.

5 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken affirmed that US warships will continue sail their “standard" courses through the Taiwan Strait despite a surge a Chinese military operations asserting Beijing’s sovereignty in the area.

Chinese officials have suspended a series of bi-lateral military dialogues designed to minimize the risk of conflict with the US.

According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, today saw 68 PLA aircraft and 13 warships underway in the strait, previously, the biggest number of aircraft to enter the strait in a single day was 56. Some 10 Chinese navy ships crossed the median line and remained in the area on Friday morning.

China flew 47 fighter aircraft, including two squadrons of Su-30 strike fighters, and two support aircraft on the eastern portion of the median line near Taipei.

Taiwan has dispatched aircraft and ships for "combat readiness" as China's military activities escalate.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is acting as a voice of de-escalation with China while defending Pelosi's Taiwan saying that Pelosi's trip was simply a routine Western visit to Taiwan.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov joined his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in boycotting Japan's remarks at the ASEAN summit. Russia's saber-rattling with Japan over the Kuril Islands will likely escalate alongside the Taiwan crisis.

China has summoned the Canadian ambassador over its participation in a G7 condemnation of Chinese actions in Taiwan.

Britain, France, Germany have urge Iran 'not to make unrealistic demands' in stalled nuclear talks.

A report sent to the UN Security Council North Korea sanctions committee has warned that

"Work at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site paves the way for additional nuclear tests for the development of nuclear weapons.”

Talk show host Igor Korotchenko said on Russian Channel One Television that North Korea has offered Russia 100,000 “volunteers” to aid in the war against Ukraine.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missiles strikes have continued with the majority of impacts reported in the south and southeast. Russian shelling was very intensive around Bakhmut and sporadic in most other impacted regions.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northwest of Slovyansk and continued efforts to advance on Bakhmut from the northeast, east, and southeast. Russian forces are prioritizing assaults on Avdiivka and Pisky.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured two villages near the eastern city of Sloviansk.

Russian troops also tried to advance near the villages of Dolyna and Bohorodychne in Donetsk Oblast but they were forced to retreat.

A Russian offensive on Soledar has been witness to significant fighting.

Russian forces attempted to advance northwest of Izyum.

Russian troops are preparing to advance on the cities of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine. Some eight-nine Battalion Tactical Groups are being transferred to Crimea.

Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said Russia’s eastern offensive was aimed at forcing Ukraine to divert troops from the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukraine’s state-run nuclear power operator Energoatom reported that Russian forces hit "directly on the site" of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant near a reactor.

Around Kherson there was shelling exchanges in several regions as the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to move forward.

Russian forces are reportedly forming a strike group to prevent Ukrainian counter-offensives in northern Kherson Oblast or counter-attack against them. Russia may launch an offensive in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson to try to win back momentum in the war.

A Russian Project 22160 patrol ship of the Vasily Bykov class exploded in port or near port in Sevastopol likely from a UKrainian missiles or drone.

4 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, the Chinese Ambassador to Paris has said that after China occupies Taiwan, the people will be re-educated to 'think patriotically'. China has launched war games around Taiwan firing both long-range artillery and DF-15 Conventional-armed Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) and DF-21 Dual-armed Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) to the north, south and east of Taiwan. Some 16 ballistic missiles appear to have been fired by Beijing including five that flew directly over Taiwan and landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) a first for China. Unlike North Korea when it test- fired long-range ballistic missiles over Japan that they avoided heavily populated areas some of the five missiles fired over Taiwan travelled over Taipei. The PLA has reportedly conducted live firing including firing long-range rockets near Matzu, Wuqiu, Dongyin and other outer islands. Taiwan's Ministry of Defense has said multiple unidentified aircraft, likely drones, flew above Kinmen. The Defense Ministry also said on Thursday its website suffered cyber attacks and went offline temporarily. Two Type-055 class Chinese cruisers have deployed off of Taiwan’s east coast. Some 22 PLA fighters crossed the northern Taiwan Strait centerline towards Taipei . Given short distances involved, desensitization to these kinds of flights would be helpful in achieving surprise against the Taiwanese military in the event of a PLA attack.

The Pentagon has directed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and other ships in the region to remain in the area near Taiwan “to monitor the situation” and potentially sail through the Taiwan Strait. The Pentagon said it has delayed a planned test of its Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) to avoid fuelling tensions with Beijing.

North Korea has tested explosive devices and begun digging new underground tunnels at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. A North Korea is expected conduct its first nuclear test since 2017 to showcase the increasing sophistication of its nuclear program.

Russia is reportedly preparing to launch a new satellite on Iran’s behalf next week that will greatly enhance Tehran’s ability to spy on military targets across the Middle East but first, Moscow intends to use it to assist its own war effort in Ukraine.

It was reported that Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said that she didn’t know Kyiv embassy staff faced threats from Russia.

Canada will reported send up to 225 instructors to train Ukrainian troops in the UK. The first instructors will arrive next week from the 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry.

Belarusian state-controlled news agency Belta reported that Russia's "East-2022" exercises will be held at 13 training grounds in Russia's east from August 30th to September 5th with 250 Belarusian troops joining the training.

Russian troops also tried to advance near the villages of Dolyna and Bohorodychne in Donetsk Oblast but they were forced to retreat.

A Russian offensive on Soledar has been witness to significant fighting.

West of Izyum fighting has reduced and no Russian manoeuvres were reported while Russian activity south of Izyum was subdued.

Russian troops are preparing to advance on the cities of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine. Some eight-nine Battalion Tactical Groups are being transferred to Crimea.

Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said Russia’s eastern offensive was aimed at forcing Ukraine to divert troops from the Zaporizhzhia region.

Around Kherson there was shelling exchanges in several regions as the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to move forward.

Russian forces are reportedly forming a strike group to prevent Ukrainian counter-offensives in northern Kherson Oblast or counter-attack against them.

3 Aug 22

At the grand strategic level, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan today as a furious China conducted combat exercises nearby.

Speaker Pelosi said in a statement that, "America made a bedrock promise to always stand with Taiwan. On this strong foundation, we have built a thriving partnership, grounded in our shared values of self government. We will not abandon our commitment to Taiwan."

The G7 has issued a statement that read, “There is no justification to use a visit as pretext for aggressive military activity…It is normal and routine for legislators from our countries to travel internationally. The PRC’s escalatory response risks …destabilizing the region.”

According to China, the UN and at least a dozen countries including Russia, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan in the international community have reaffirmed their adherence to the one-China principle and voiced discontent over Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

The Chinese Global Times has warned that with drills surrounding Taiwan entirely, the PLA is completely blockading the island, demonstrating the Chinese mainland's absolute control over Taiwan question.

General Yu Chien-chang, a senior official at the Taiwan’s Defence Ministry’s legal department has warned that the Chinese military exercises “are tantamount to an air and sea blockade of Taiwan. They overlap with our territorial waters and airspace and severely violate our sovereignty.”

Some 27 PLA aircraft including : six J-11, five J-16 and 16 SU-30 fighter aircraft entered the surrounding area of Taiwan on August 3, 2022.

Azerbaijan has stated an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh and seized several strategic high points or heights. According to Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry, the offensive started after Armenian troops killed an Azeri soldier in the area where Russian peacekeepers are deployed. Russia has charged that Azerbaijan has violated the ceasefire.

Serbia's Interior Minister Alexander Vulin was recently reportedly spotted with the Z insignia of support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The first grain-carrying ship to leave Ukrainian ports in wartime anchored off Turkey’s coast on Tuesday, with one grain ship to leave Ukraine daily as long as the deal holds.

The Joint Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has told the RBC media outlet that some 40 Ukrainian military personnel involved in a NATO-led international peacekeeping force in Kosovo are being withdrawn.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, "We don't have illusions regarding Belarus, but we know how we can avoid giving (dictator Alexander Lukashenko) a reason to make certain decisions," and went on to warn Ukraine will cut diplomatic ties with Belarus if its military crosses the border.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that despite arms supplies from the West, his country’s forces could not yet overcome Russian advantages in heavy guns and manpower.

The Institute for the Study of War said that unconfirmed reports suggest Iran may have already sent drones to Russia. The ISW said unofficial Iranian sources suggest Iran may have sent UAVs, pilots, and technicians to train to use Russian Su-35 aircraft.

Fighting towards Bakhmut remains heavy with Russian forces securing the settlements of Novoluhans'ke, Vershyna and Semyhirja in heavy fighting.

A Russian offensive on Soledar has been witness to significant fighting.

West of Izyum fighting has reduced and no Russian manoeuvres were reported while Russian activity south of Izyum was subdued.

Russian troops are preparing to advance on the cities of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine. Some eight-nine Battalion Tactical Groups are being transferred to Crimea.

Around Kherson there was shelling exchanges in several regions as the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues here.

Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that "seven indispensable pillars of nuclear safety and security are being violated" at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia plant.

According to British Defence Intelligence

Ukraine is intensifying its counter-attacks against Russian-occupied Kherson and this will likely lead to an increase in civilians fleeing the region as hostilities and food shortages get worse. Russia is likely to add measures to control movement out of occupied areas of Kherson.

The British Defence Ministry said that the rail link connecting Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine with Crimea is highly unlikely to be operational due to a Ukrainian strike against a Russian ammunition train.

2 August 22

At the grand strategic level and as expected, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her delegation arrived in Taiwan tonight sparking furious reactions from Beijing in what is likely to be the Fourth Taiwan Straits Crisis with done similarity to the Third Straits Crisis.

In 1995, the Third Taiwan Straits Crisis (1995-1996) began when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui accepted an invitation from his alma natter Cornell University to deliver a speech on "Taiwan's Democratization Experience". China reacted allergically to the invitation and attempted to block the trip at the highest levels of the Clinton administration. The Clinton administration assured China that no visa for the visit would be forthcoming only to be out maneuvered by a pro-China US Congress that put forth a motion enabling the visa and President Lee’s visit.

China’s reaction was swift, which included placing its forces adjacent to Taiwan on high alert, test-firing missiles out into the South China Sea near Taiwan and conducting an amphibious exercise in 1995 to intimidate the Taiwanese government and test-fired more missiles into waters around Taiwan in 1996 to intimidate Taiwanese voters ahead of a Presidential election. The gunboat diplomacy failed, and Lee was again elected President. The Clinton administration deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups to the waters around Taiwan to deter the Chinese from further action as 1996 was a US Presidential election year as well. There are some similarities between Chinese and US reactions today based on the 1995 and 1996 crisis.

Like in 1995, it would take months even with high readiness forces across from Taiwan for China to mount an invasion of the Island and there are no signs at this time that they are prepared to do that and they most likely would not do it with Pelosi in Taipei. But there are multiple measures the PLA can take once Pelosi flies to Taiwan. The PLA can declare air and maritime zones around Taiwan as restricted zones. Chinese fighter jets can also fly across the island, firing missiles into the waters surrounding Taiwan and conducting military drills are also options. The PLA can also conduct large-scale military drills around the island of Taiwan, including on the waters between Taiwan and Japan as well as between Taiwan and Guam. The PLA drills would also include joint efforts of all PLA service branches, with all combat elements including electronic warfare, missile, and long-range rocket strikes, seizing of air superiority and control of the sea, amphibious landing, as well as anti-access and area denial against external military interference. China could also take small Taiwanese offshore islands next to China's coast such as the strategic Pratas and Itu Aba islands in the South China Sea allowing President Xi of China to save face and claim victory without US intervention. China could also help Russia with its Ukraine war by arming Moscow with new weapons and distracting the West from arming and supporting Kyiv.

Beijing’s actions to date include China's Liaoning aircraft carrier leaving Qingdao on July 31st and the carrier Shandong leaving Sanya on August 1st and China’s large new 075-type amphibious assault ship and escorting warships have also put to see.

China has announced plans to speed up the reunification process with a comprehensive action plan as it ramps up military readiness against Pelosi’s Taiwan visit.

PLA Eastern Theater Command has announced that it would hold joint military operations around Taiwan, with joint maritime and air drills to the north, southwest and southeast of the island, long-range artillery in the Taiwan Straits, and conventional missile test-firing in the sea regions east of the island starting Tuesday night. They may even fire ballistic missiles over Taiwan out into the South China Sea. The areas of the exercise include waters Taiwan considers as territorial and internal waterways. The areas for the war games are roughly equivalent to those impacted by China in the Third Taiwan Straits Crisis of 1995 and 1996.

Taiwan’s Presidential Office has confirmed that at around 17:15 local time, the Presidential Office’s website was hit by an overseas DDoS attack some 200 times that of a normal day, causing the official website to be down for 20 minutes.

Some 100 Taiwanese products traded with China have been hammered by sanctions and restrictions.

Some 21 PLA aircraft including eight J-11, ten J-16 fighter, a KJ-500 Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, aY-9 Electronic Warfare and a Y-8 Electronic Intelligence gathering aircraft reportedly entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on August 2, 2022.

The US reaction has been predictable with its forces in the rejoin placed in high alert and

with the USS Ronald Reagan carrier group deployed near the Philippines, while the USS America and USS Tripoli amphibious assault groups deployed between Taiwan and Japan.

North Korea watchers expect the country to conduct its seventh nuclear test any day now and likely dubbed a ‘third nuclear age.’”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared it can use nuclear missiles to turn 'New York into hellish ruins.'

In a deleted post, Russia’s former President Dmitry Medvedev and likely Putin successor stated that the “people of the USSR will live together again,” promising to annex Kazakhstan and the Republic of Georgia.

Russia's new naval doctrine elevates the importance of a prospective Red Sea naval base and Russia's relationship with Sudan will be critical, as the Port Sudan base agreement remains its clearest path to a facility. Eritrea, which has backed on Russia's Ukraine war, is also a potential key partner.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held a phone call on August 2nd to discuss the alliance’s military support to Kyiv.

The US has announced a new tranche of weapons for Ukraine’s forces worth $550 million US, including ammunition for rocket launchers and artillery guns.

Canada, the US have announced further sanctions on Russian citizens and entities.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missiles strikes continued with most impacts reported in the south and southeast. Russian shelling was very heavy around Bakhmut and sporadic in most other regions.

On the ground, the General Staff of Ukraine has said that Ukraine repelled Russian offensives in several directions in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Russian forces had partial success in advancing near occupied Horlivka and Donetsk.

Fighting towards Bakhmut intensified with Russian forces securing several settlements including Novoluhans'ke, Vershyna and Semyhirja.

A Russian offensive on Soledar has been witness to significant fighting.

West of Izyum fighting has reduced and no Russian manoeuvres were reported while Russian activity south of Izyum was subdued.

Russian troops were preparing to advance on the cities of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv, where a “sufficiently large” Ukrainian force lay in wait.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine. Some eight-nine Battalion Tactical Groups are being transferred to Crimea.

Around Kherson there was some Ukrainian artillery fire onto Nova Kakhovka and shelling exchanges in several regions as the Ukrainian the counter-offensive continues here.

In the southern Kherson region, which is mostly under Russian control, Ukrainian troops have reportedly liberated some 50 towns.

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was being used as a “nuclear shield” by Russian troops who established a base there.

Russia has designated the Azov Battalion as a terrorist organization. This can lead to 10-year prison sentences for Azov members and 20-year prison sentences for Azov leaders. The Donetsk People's Republic's penalties extend to the death penalty. Many victims in the likely Russian false flag attack on the Olenivka prisoner camp in the Russian-occupied part of Donetsk Oblast on July 28th were from the Azov Regiment. The attack was likely to cover up human rights abuses, torture, and executions.

Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of laying unmourned naval mines in the Black Sea with Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish military diving teams defusing those that have ended up in their waters.

1 August 22

In terms of the geo-strategic context, while Ukraine has been a major test of the US and NATO, Taiwan is about to emerge as the ultimate test of US and its allies’ resolve. If US House Speaker Pelosi goes through with a reported pending visit to Taiwan, China is threatening war. While a Chinese victory is not assured, the loss of Taiwan has a global effect on the credibility of the US post-Second World War alliance infrastructure. Taiwan’s off-shore islands especially the strategic Pratas Islands are very vulnerable to seizure. This is only a first test, expect President Xi to become even more aggressive with the Communist Party likely to offer him a third term as supreme leader. If China can defeat the US in battle and cow its allies driving Washington back across the Pacific, Japan knows that the loss of Taiwan almost certainly means the loss of the Senkakus and likely Okinawa. It likely also means loss of the entire Kuril Island chain to Russia. Taiwan is as important to Japanese security as Japan is linked to US Pacific security interests. Failure leaves Japan and South Korea with little choice but to be vassal states of China or rapidly arm with nuclear weapons. The next 48 hours are critical like those days in October 1962 over the Caribbean island of Cuba and a Russian -inspired missile crisis. Is this all bluster and sabre rattling or is it something else? The US and China could well be on the verge of entering ‘Thucydides Trap.’

At the grand strategic level, US and Taiwanese officials have said that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan during her Asia trip despite the warnings from China. Reports from a variety of sources suggests she will arrive tomorrow night.

August 1st marks the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). The PLA celebrates this Army Day with concrete, realistic combat preparations amid Taiwan Straits tensions brought by Pelosi’s provocation.

Global Times Commentator and former Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin has warned that “the Chinese army will surely eliminate Pelosi’s visit’s consequence through the escalation of military operations. As a result, this will make her dejected and humiliated.”

The Chinese military has announced they will hold exercises in the South China Sea from August 2nd-6th. Today four Chinese J-16 fighter aircraft entered the air defense identification zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan. China’s Southern Command has posted an aggressive military might video that has shades of Hitler’s Nuremberg Rallies.

Just hours after low level armed clashes, an information war between Serbia and Kosovo has opened up. Serbia has accused Kosovar accounts of spreading fake news about Serbian military involvement, while Kosovo has accused Serbia of manufacturing clashes between the Serbian army and Kosovar police.

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain departed the port city of Odesa for Lebanon.

Mali's junta has aligned itself with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in attacking French neocolonialism. Macron's comments in Benin, which directly condemned Russian neo-imperialism, have been greeted with polarized reactions in Africa.

Russian President Vladimir Putin marked Navy Day yesterday by also announcing that the Russian Navy would receive what he called “formidable” hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles in the coming months.

Putin has warned there can be “no winners” in a nuclear war and said such a conflict should never be started. International concern about the risk of a nuclear confrontation has heightened since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th. In a speech at the time, Putin pointedly referred to Russia’s nuclear arsenal and warned outside powers against any attempt to interfere with its self-described “special military operation”.

Putin May formally announce the annexation of several areas of occupied Ukraine in the near future and declare victory in the war.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel in an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, additional deployment of electronic warfare systems by the Belarusian military was spotted in the areas bordering Ukraine.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued to be more subdued with the exception of around Bakhmut. There was Russian fast air activity was reported over Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian shelling continues to be intensive towards Bakhmut and south of Donetsk City.

On the ground, Russian localised offensives northeast of Kharkiv continued with no real gains, and there were reports of some Russian movements towards Izyum.

There are concerns Russian activity northwest of Izyum and activity southeast of Kharkiv may be an indication of new major offensive planned against Kharkiv.

Fighting continues south of Izyum and to the west of the city while Russian forces have been

consolidating defences north of Izyum.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive southwest of Izyum continue to push Russian forces back with Russia making no real gains towards Slovyansk. There were some minor clashes near Siversk, but the majority of Russian units have moved south to support attacks on Bakhmut.

Fighting has increased around Ivano-Dar'ivka and Russian forces did move into Berestove after significant artillery support.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine. Some eight-nine Battalion Tactical Groups are being transferred to Crimea.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Zaporizhia Oblast continued to destroy Russian units and push back their front lines. There has been significant progress towards Polohy, a significant strategic railway resupply point. Russia has likely identified Zaporizhzhia as a vulnerable area that needs troop reinforcement.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive north of Kherson and nearer the City continued to make small gains. Russia is reportedly moving significantly more reinforcements into this region.

31 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday, China has delivered sterner warnings to US officials about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan. The Financial Times has reported that six people familiar with the Chinese warnings have said that they were significantly stronger than the threats that Beijing has made in the past when it was unhappy with US actions or policy on Taiwan. No high-ranking US elected official has visited Taiwan in 25 years.

Tonight’s reported tension on the border after an exchange of gunfire between Serbia and Kosovo May indicate that Russia may be considering other fronts in the war in Ukraine and might take the opportunity to use allies like Serbia to destabilize the Balkan region and re-open old fault-lines in Europe. This may also just be a simmering local issue.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a new naval doctrine on Russian Navy Day that casts the US as Russia’s main rival and sets out Russia’s global maritime ambitions for crucial areas such as the Arctic and the Black Sea. But in real terms, the Russian surface navy is outnumbered four to one by European NATO members alone and by far more by the US Navy. Only in terms of nuclear weapons at sea does Russia come close to parity with the US and NATO. It should be noted that Russia’s Black Sea naval blockade has been a major strategic win for Russia in a war with few clear victories despite its loss of its cruiser flagship Moskva. The 55-page doctrine document said Moscow will seek to strengthen its leading position in exploring the Arctic and its mineral resources and maintain "strategic stability" there by bolstering the potential of the northern and Pacific fleets. It mentioned Russia's desire to develop a "safe and competitive" sea route from Europe to Asia, known as the Northeast Passage, via the country's Arctic coastline and ensure it worked throughout the year.

Russia has invited experts from the UN and the Red Cross to investigate the deaths of dozens of Ukrainian prisoners in a jail held by Moscow-backed separatist.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes are significantly reduced and do not appear to be weather related. Russian shelling has intensified towards Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and remains heavy towards Bakhmut. Shelling around Siversk has subdued and across most other impacted regions shelling remains sporadic.

On the ground, Bakhmut is an increasingly significant front line in Russia’s Donetsk offensive and Ukraine is pushing for and ordered a complete evacuation of civilians. Ukraine’s deputy head of Military Intelligence has warned that Russia is “currently creating rifle battalions of reservists in each Russian military district and a third army corps in Russia’s Western Military District.”

Fighting continues to be significant towards Bakhmut and Russian forces secured Pokrovs'ke. A major Russian offensive on Bakhmut is likely in the coming days, while fighting around Siversk has subdued significantly with indications Russian units are moving south to reinforce the Bakhmut offensive.

Around Izyum there was further fighting to the west and halting Russian progress towards Slovyansk. Several Russian units in this region are isolated due to localised Ukrainian counter-offensives. North and northeast of Izyum Russian forces are reinforcing their resupply corridor to Belgorod and Russian forces have consolidated to reinforce Izyum.

Southwest of Izyum Russian forces did consolidate and launch offensives on two settlements with one now contested and fighting ongoing. Russian forces also launched a series of attacks southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks. As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine. Some eight-nine Battalion Tactical Groups are being transferred to Crimea.

East of Zaporizhia Ukrainian forces continued with a counter-offensive with fighting near Orikhiv.

Around Kherson the Ukrainian counteroffensive continued with more Russian ammunition depots targeted. Russian forces seem to be reinforcing and opening up new resupply routes including with Pontoon bridges.

A senior official in Russian-annexed Crimea has accused Ukraine in what appears to be a false flag operation of carrying out a drone attack before planned celebrations to mark Russia’s Navy Day, injuring five and forcing the cancellation of festivities.

30 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, China continues its bellicose statements directed at Taiwan, Japan and the US. In the last two days, Chinese President Xi has essentially threatened to kill US President Joe Biden and the former editor of its state media has threatened to shoot down US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plane should she fly to Taiwan. Both China and Taiwan are conducting naval war games. Four Chinese warships have entered Japanese territorial waters in the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea which China views as Chinese territory. There are Chinese troops deep into Indian-controlled territory in Ladakh, in the Himalayas. Russian warships are sailing near the occupied Kuril Islands of Japan and Japanese territory in the Kuril Island chain. North Korea is ready to conduct its first nuclear test in five years and threatening nuclear war. Nuclear negotiations with the largest actor of State-sponsored terror Iran remain at a standstill and they have taken hostage another Swedish citizen. All the while, Russia has continued with its invasion and war with Ukraine which we think of as recent, but that has been on-going since 2014.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held their first call since Russia’s February 24th invasion, to discuss a US-proposed prisoner swap.

Gazprom has suspended gas exports to Latvia.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes are more subdued with air activity significantly reduced in the southeast likely due to weather. Russian shelling continued to be heavy near Siversk, Bakhmut, Kharkiv and towards Kramatorsk.

On the ground, Chief of Britain’s MI6 foreign intelligence agency, Richard Moore, has said Russia is “running out of steam” in its assault on Ukraine. Russia’s 80,000 troops fighting in Ukraine are almost bogged down, they have lost an estimated 75,000 troops dead and wounded, between a third and half of their frontline main battle tanks have been destroyed and countless other ships, planes and vehicles. British Defence Intelligence has warned that Russia is looking to hold referendums in newly occupied areas of Ukraine prior to annexation as Ukrainians start-up an insurgency in the occupied areas largely to the south and east.

Russian forces launched attacks north of Kharkiv with no real gains. Russian operations towards Bakhmut also made minimal gains, but offensives around Siversk and Slovyansk fail to gain ground.

Russian forces have had partial success in the village of Semyhiria near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and are entrenched on the outskirts of the settlement.

North of Kherson, east of the Inhulets River and closer to Kherson City Ukrainian counteroffensives are in-going.

Ukraine has reportedly claimed to have cut off Russian rail traffic to Kherson by the Dnipro River. This is significant, if verified, it seals off Russian forces in Kherson from supplies originating in Crimea and the Russian-occupied Donbas.

British Intelligence has assessed that Russia likely established two pontoon bridges and ferry system to compensate for bridge damaged near Kherson.

29 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, the Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned US President Joe Biden against “playing with fire” over Taiwan in a phone call that lasted more than two hours on Thursday, as tensions remain high over the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential trip to the island next month. Xi warned, “Those who play with fire will be perished by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.”

The White House readout on Biden/Xi call said, "On Taiwan, President Biden underscored that the US policy has not changed and that the US strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

China's Ministry of National Defense said that if Pelosi's visit to Taiwan takes place, "the Chinese military will never sit idly by." Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of Chinese state media said that he expects PLA fighter jets to "accompany" Pelosi's plane.

Kim Jong Un said North Korea is ready to mobilize its nuclear war deterrent and counter any US military clash. Kim's remarks came after Seoul and Washington officials said Pyongyang has completed preparations to conduct its first nuclear test since 2017.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will reportedly address a US request for a phone call with Secretary of State Blinken when he has time.

Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin has signed a decree appointing Colonel-General Viktor P. Goremykin as Russia's new Deputy Minister of Defense and Head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. This post was previously held by Colonel-General Gennady V. Zhidko who replaced General Dvornikov as Commander of all Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

According to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 81 percent of Ukrainians would support Ukraine joining the EU, and 71 percent would support joining NATO if asked during a potential referendum.

There are currently 17 Ukrainian vessels blockaded on the Black Sea loaded with grain and another is being loaded. Ukraine reportedly hopes to start exporting grain from these 18 ships by the end of this week

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes have continued but were less than the usual daily trend with most targeting military units and installations in the southeast and south. Belarus was the launchpoint for 25 Russian missile strikes yesterday on Kyiv, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr. Russian shelling continued to be heavy around Siversk, Soledar, Bakhmut, but was more sporadic around Slovyansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson. The Russian Army has always used artillery to support and make up for shortcomings in their ground forces and sporadic use suggests that the Russians are facing real challenges to their military in achieving objectives.

It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian Kherson counter-offensive has underscored again the continued resilience of Ukraine's air power and the failures of Russian air power. Russia's inability to obtain air supremacy even in areas where it controls has allowed Ukraine to strike five key targets in and around Kherson in the past 24 hours.

In another Russian war crime several dozen Ukrainian POWs were killed, many more injured in the shelling of a POW detention facility in Russian-controlled Donbas. Russia has blamed Ukraine for shelling the facility, but Ukraine’s General Staff has charged that Russians deliberately murdered the POWs who are being tortured and now are trying to blame Kyiv for it. A spokeswoman for Donetsk People’s Republic tells Russian military TV that 50 Ukrainian POWs from Azov, kept in a separate barrack, were killed in the Olenivka strike and many more injured. No Russians were killed or wounded in the attack. In shades of the Katyn Massacre, the US has revealed that Russia has 18 filtration camps in Ukraine where executions have taken place.

The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office has launched an investigation following the release of video on social media that appears to show Russian soldiers brutally torturing a Ukrainian POW and people in Russian army uniforms cutting off the genitalia of a Ukrainian serviceman.

On the ground, according to British intelligence, the Russian-controlled private military Wagner Group has been given duties similar to regular army units on the front lines in Ukraine. The UK Defense Ministry said this is a “significant change” from the previous employment of the elite Wagner Group since 2015 when it “typically undertook missions distinct from overt, large-scale regular Russian military activity.” It is believed that the Wagner Group’s role has likely changed because of Russia's “major shortage of combat infantry.”

Heavy fighting has continued in and around Soledar with unverified reports it is now contested. Heavy fighting continues around

Siversk which remains under Ukrainian control.

There was heavy fighting with Russian attacks on Bakhmut and Semihirya.

There were no known Russian movements from Izyum amid reports Ukrainian forces re-secured more roads and settlements including Brazhkivka to the south.

Ukrainian forces carried out counter-attacks around Izyum and to the north of Slovyansk as Russian forces struggle to get resupplied.

East of Zaporizhia Ukrainian counter-offensives are underway.

Operations are continuing around Kherson with Ukrainian artillery and airstrikes supporting ground forces. Some Russian forces are becoming isolated here with resupply lines being severed and or interrupted by Ukrainian forces.

Russia reportedly has a half dozen ships underway in the Black Sea, staying outside of Ukrainian anti-ship missile range.

27 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russia's former President and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has published a map where Ukraine is divided into parts, with the biggest one belonging to Russia, and smaller ones to Poland and Romania. On the map published by Medvedev, only Kyiv Oblast is labeled as Ukraine.

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that if the world allows Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to succeed, “it will cause untold misery across Europe." "We know that he wouldn’t just stop at Ukraine."

Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of Russia's delegation on arms control in Vienna has warned of a “harsh response” if the West increases weapon supplies to Ukraine.

Russia’s economy is projected to have a shallower 3.5 percent decline in 2023 compared to the 6 percent decline this year

Russia’s weaponisation of gas and Nord Stream is leading to small scale cooperation between France and Germany with France offering 2 percent of its gas to help Germany withstand the winter months.

Spain is trying to position itself as a gas export hub to Europe as it exports 20 percent of its imported LNG to Europe.

Hungary has continued its obstructionism of EU energy policy by being the sole voice of opposition to the 15 percent gas ration.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes have continued with most impacts reported in the south and southeast. Russian artillery continues to be less active in many regions. Around Kharkiv, Bakhmut, Siversk and towards Slovyansk shelling has continued with intensive periods.

On the ground, Russia's post-Donbas military plans reportedly include the seizure of Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk the war starts its next phase.

Fighting activity continues to be at its highest around the south and southeast of Bakhmut and east of Siversk.

There are reports Russian forces have pushed into the Vuhlehirsʹka power plant which Ukrainian forces had been fighting hard to hold onto for weeks. There are also reports that Russian forces have taken at least two nearby settlements.

Ukrainian forces will likely tactically withdraw back towards the Bakhmut to maintain their resupply and lines of communications. It’s likely Ukraine will be forced into a similar withdrawal around Siversk too in the coming days.

Russian momentum out of Izyum remains uneven with Ukrainian forces successful containment operations interrupting Russian attacks towards Slovyansk.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

East of Zaporizhia there were reports of combat in the air but no reports of significant movements on the ground.

Ukrainian operations towards Kherson have continued and the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson has been targeted again by Ukrainian artillery and has this time been destroyed.

Car with two Russia's collaborators was blown up in occupied Kherson as there are signs of a growing insurgency in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

26 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Kazakhstan is reportedly increasing its defence budget by $918 million. This is being attributed to tensions with Russia over Kazakhstan's non-recognition of the Donbas republics and energy exports to Europe.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile strikes continued with interceptions reported near Odesa and Kharkiv and others near Kyiv. Russian shelling was significantly reduced across widespread regions likely as a consequence of lack of ammunition supplies. Ukrainian forces have reportedly hit 50 ammunition depots in the last week with the new longer range HIMARS system. Russian shelling was intensive towards Bakhmut, Siversk and around Slovyansk.

On the ground, Russian forces continue with defensive operations around Kharkiv with no significant changes, and Kharkiv was targeted with shelling overnight.

Fighting continues east and southeast of Siversk and south and southeast of Bakhmut. Russian forces east of Siversk are focus efforts on taking Hryhorivka.

South of Bakhmut Russian forces made some progress on taking the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power-plant.

There are also Russian units in the south side of Novoluhans'ke, but they are facing significant Ukrainian resistance.

To the southeast of Bakhmut Russian forces have mostly secured the M-3/E40 Highway to the southeast after weeks of fighting. They have launched offensives on Ukrainian positions west of the highway.

Further north Russian forces entered Stryapivka on the Soledar front and now control it with a number of other settlements in this region.

There were no Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum and fighting to the west continues. Russian manoeuvres towards settlements around Slovyansk made some progress.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine's strikes on strategically important Dnipro River bridges are central to its Kherson counter-offensive but it has hedged by damaging bridges but not destroying them so that they are useful in the counter-attack.

East of Zaporizhia Ukrainian counteroffensives continued yesterday with reports of more Russian losses.

Ukrainian forces continue with several operations around Kherson with further artillery strikes onto targets overnight. Russian aircraft were very active across the south yesterday conducting SEAD operations.

UK Defense Intelligence has found no evidence that Russian strikes hit a Ukrainian warship and stockpile of anti-ship missiles in Odesa.

Russia “almost certainly” believes Ukrainian anti-ship missiles, which prevented an amphibious assault on Odesa are also limiting the effectiveness of Russian Black Sea Fleet.

25 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, has said Moscow’s ultimate strategic objective in Ukraine is to topple the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and replace it with a more Kremlin friendly regime.

CIA Director William Burns said Wednesday that “Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to take control of Taiwan but is studying the lessons of Russian military shortfalls in Ukraine before taking action.” Burns said “he would not underestimate Mr. Xi’s determination to assert Chinese control over Taiwan through military action in the next few years.”

Gazprom has announced plans to reduce gas flow through Nord Stream to just 20 percent, blaming the turbine issue. Russian state-owned Gazprom said gas exports to Germany would drop to about a fifth of the pipe line’s capacity starting July 27th. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on July 22nd that supplies remained unreliable because Russia had already limited the pipeline's capacity to 40 percent. The moves were interpreted by critics as part of Russia's efforts to blackmail and intimidate the EU.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Hryhorii Halahan from the post of Commander of the Special Operations Forces and appointed Viktor Khorenko to this post. Zelenskyy appointed Halahan commander of the Special Operations Forces in August 2020.

Khorenko, Commanded the special reserve of the Intelligence Defense of the Ministry of Defense before the appointment. As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on the same day Zelenskyy dismissed Ruslan Demchenko from the post of First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC).

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continue to be launched from the land, sea and air with most impacts reported in the south and southeast. Russian shelling continues to be widespread, but heaviest towards Kramatorsk and on settlements around Slovyansk. Heavy shelling also continues towards Bakhmut and near Siversk where fighting continues to be significant. Sporadic shelling is targeting areas near Kharkiv.

On the ground, around Kharkiv there were some Russian movements and clashes in the northeast but most activity continues to be Russian units defending their resupply corridor south and along the border areas.

Ukraine’s military reported that Russian forces were readying for an assault on the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region and were continuing efforts to assert control of the area around the Vuhlehirska power plant 50 Kilometres northeast of Donetsk city.

Russian ground forces did not attack Siversk yesterday, but there are reports a reconnaissance unit was engaged by Ukrainian forces with small arms. Siversk remains under the control of Ukrainian forces. Heavy fighting continues to the east and southeast of the city.

South of Bakhmut Russian forces launched a large offensive on Novoluhans'ke which was repelled.

The Vuhlehirs'ka power plant was attacked from two axis with Russian forces partially successful.

Fighting continued yesterday west of Izyum with reports of some fighting to the north. There were reports of some Russian units moving out of Izyum south, but progress was minimal.

Russian attacks south of Izyum and towards Slovyansk were all repelled.

East of Zaporozhye Ukrainian forces are consolidating in new positions geared to a counter-offensive.

Ukrainian counteroffensives east of Zaporizhia destroyed Russian vehicles and artillery units near Huliaipole.

North of Kherson and close to the city Ukrainian forces continued to make progress.

24 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, there is a concerning situation brewing in Moldova where the government refused to allow Russian forces in its breakaway Transnistria region transit for a troop rotation. Transnistria’s “Foreign Minister” then responded that it will formally join Russia for protection. In response to the increased tensions between Moldova and Russia, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Kirill Budanov, warned that the Ukrainian Army is ready to help Moldova get rid of the 1500 Russian soldiers who illegally occupy Moldovan territory in Transnistria. If such an event did occur with the removal or defeat of these Russian troops by Ukrainian and Moldovan forces in the breakaway region it could lead to both the reunion of Moldova and Transnistria but also a renewed Moldova rejoining with Romania.

Across the theatre, Russian air and missile attacks have increased significantly with impacts reported more widespread than previous days and with the south and southeast targeted as well as central Kirovohrad Oblast. Heavy Russian shelling continues towards Kramatorsk, some settlements around Slovyansk, east of Siversk and towards Bakhmut. Russian shelling increased in the northeast and onto parts of Kharkiv and north of Kherson.

On the ground, around Kharkiv there were some movements by Russian forces but no changes of significance.

Fighting east of Siversk was again heavy in parts yesterday, but the city remains in Ukrainian control and an offensive on Verkhn'okam'yans'ke was also repelled. Fighting towards Bakhmut continues with minimal Russian progress still.

There was heavy fighting east of Siversk but the city remains in Ukrainian hands and an offensive on Verkhn'okam'yans'ke was also repelled. Fighting towards Bakhmut continues with minimal Russian progress.

There were no reported Russian movements out of Izyum and some localised offensives towards Slovyansk were repelled. Heavy fighting continued around Bohorodychne, but it too remains under Ukrainian control.

East of Zaporozhye Ukrainian forces are consolidating in new positions geared to a counter-offensive.

North of Kherson along the Inhulets there was heavy Russian shelling targeting Ukrainian units, but some Ukrainian artillery targeted Russian infrastructure to impact Russian resupplies and logistics including a strategic bridge at Dariivka.

Closer to Kherson there was some Ukrainian action to the northwest and some shelling exchanges with further Russian defences and other logistics targets hit by Ukrainian longer range artillery.

Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near the villages of Sukhyi Stavok and Bilohirka near the border between Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts

23 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level the US has promised another $270 million in military aid for Ukraine, including drones.

On a more concerning note about global food security and Russia’s weaponization of food, according to Ukraine's Operational Command “South,” Russia attacked the Black Sea port in Odesa with cruise missiles on July 23rd. President Zelensky told a US House delegation that the missile strike on Odesa's port the day after Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement for grain exports has shown that Moscow is not trustworthy. The US Ambassador to Kyiv said Moscow should be held to account for an “outrageous” strike on the port city of Odesa. According to the UN food shortages, fuel price hikes and the debt burden brought on by the war in Ukraine can severely impact 1.7 billion people across 107 economies. Despite best efforts Ukrainian farmers are expected to harvest less that half of their usual 80 million tonnes of grain this year. Normally, Ukraine punches above its weight as a food exporter, contributing 42 percent of the sunflower oil traded on the global market, 16 percent of the maize, 10 percent of the barley and 9 percent of the wheat. This is now all in considerable jeopardy.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said the EU needs a new strategy on the war in Ukraine as sanctions against Moscow have not worked.

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued to be far less than the normal amount with most impacts reported in the south and southeast. Russia launched eight Kalibr cruise missiles and five Kh-22 anti-ship missiles at Kirovohrad Oblast, targetting a military airfield and a Ukrzaliznytsia, a railway. Russian forces fired on villages in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. East of Zaporozhye sporadic Russian shelling occurred into several regions. It is likely that we shall see more shelling as Ukrainian forces manoeuvre into counteroffensive positions.

On the ground, according to a recent briefing by US officials Russia has committed 85 percent of their military forces to Ukraine, removing military coverage around areas on their borders, and massively depleted their smart munitions.

Around Kharkiv shelling continues towards the city and in the north, but there were no changes on the ground.

Fighting around Siversk is heavy and ongoing in the east and south east, but Ukrainian forces are still in complete control of the city. Fighting was heavy towards Bakhmut again, but Russian forces continue to be repelled by the Ukrainian Army.

There were minimal Russian movements out of Izyum and fighting to the south. Fighting continues to the west of the city and some clashes occurred towards Slovyansk, but progress is modest.

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said Russian troops again attempted to establish control over the Vuhlehirska power plant but were repelled.

Heavy fighting has taken place in the last 48 hours as Ukrainian forces continue their offensive against Russia in Kherson province, west of the Dnieper river

On July 19th, the authorities in Russian-occupied Kherson reported that Ukrainian forces had struck the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper River. Social media posts showed apparent battle damage to the bridge’s roadway but it is likely still in use. Ukraine has claimed that Russia is trying to create an alternative military bridge crossing in Dnipro. If bridge infrastructure on the Dnipro is cut off, Russian forces in Kherson are isolated from Russian forces in Crimea. This is a key development to watch.

North of Kherson despite Russian shelling and air/missile strikes Ukrainian forces continue to hold ground across the Inhulets and around Lozove, Andriivka and Bilohirka and making minimal progress to the east. Ukrainian Ground forces have advanced closer on several fronts and reconnaissance and Special Forces are pushing closer around the city. Ukrainian forces are consolidating and a surprise counteroffensive on Kherson could occur in the coming days and weeks.

Closer to Kherson Ukrainian artillery strikes continue targeting resupply depots, defensive positions, critical infrastructure, command and control and rear area Russian command centres using new longer range artillery.

22 Jul 22

In the months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there have been 90 instances of Chinese and Russian military vessels and aircraft approaching Japan. This is an alarming 2.5 times more than before the invasion.

At the grand strategic level, Ukraine and Russia have signed separate agreements with Turkey and the UN on grain passage through Black Sea. The agreements envision the use of three Ukrainian ports Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne to export grain under the supervision of Ukraine, the UN, and Turkey. The agreement does not envision a Russian presence in these ports nor does it allow Russia to escort Ukrainian grain out of the country.

US SOCOM commander General Clarke has reportedly warned about the risks of global food insecurity saying "Anyone will do anything to feed their family."

A major debate erupted on the German internet after Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock revealed that the government put pressure on Canada to return the Gazprom turbine. Berlin told Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that Germany would halt its weapon shipments to Ukraine if it didn’t receive the gas turbine for Nord Stream 1.

Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto will meet his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in Moscow to talk about ensuring gas supplies to Hungary in another fissure in the EU/NATO approach to taking a hardline with Moscow.

It was reported that there are currently two Russian Navy nuclear-powered submarines in Baltic, a Yasen Class cruise missile submarine, and an AKULA class attack submarine. Both are likely headed for Navy Day in St. Petersburg.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Moscow, Kyiv and NATO must halt the war in Ukraine to avoid the “abyss of nuclear war”.

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued with the south and the southeast targeted. Russia continues to use adapted Surface to Air Missiles on land targets due to supply problems. Russian shelling continues to be heavy around Siversk, Bakhmut and towards Slovyansk. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed more than 100 significant Russian military targets in Ukraine, including command posts, ammunition depots, and air defense sites.

On the ground, British intelligence believes that Russia forces are likely to start an operational pause in Ukraine in the coming weeks, giving Kyiv a key opportunity to launch

a counter-offensive.

The Canadian Armed Forces has reportedly assessed that ‘Russia likely no longer has the military capability to achieve its ambitions in Ukraine. The Canadian Armed Forces cited considerable personnel and equipment losses as reasons for waning Russian military capability.

Shelling and fighting north of Kharkiv was less significant with no changes on the ground for either side.

Heavy fighting has continued east of Siversk and towards Bakhmut with little progress being made by Russian Forces.

Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian offensive near the village of Pokrovske, as well as

Russian advances near the villages of Verkhnyokamyanske and Ivano-Daryivka.

Russian forces appear to be closing in on Ukraine’s second biggest power plant at Vuhlehirska, 50 Kilometres northeast of Donetsk.

There was minimal Russian movement out of Izyum and still no real Russian activity out of Lyman. Some fighting and manoeuvres continued towards settlements around Slovyansk, but without any Russian progress.

South of Donetsk Ukrainian forces commenced counteroffensives and re-secured the settlement of Mykilske.

The Ukrainian military repelled a Russian assault in the village of Vodiane, 20 kilometers northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

East of Zaporozhye Ukrainian forces targeted Russian units near Orikhiv.

North of Kherson Russian aircraft targeted Ukrainian units with minimal progress made by the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Closer to Kherson city Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian defences and infrastructure with artillery.

There are unconfirmed Reports that the Ukrainian Army has encircled more than one Russian battalion group in Vysokepillia, Kherson region.

South of Kherson Ukrainian forces targeted Russian units south of the T1501 highway with long range artillery yesterday.

21 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, the Nord Stream 1 turbine is stuck in transit as Russia has held up delivery. The turbine was transported to Germany on July 17th but has since been stuck in transit because Russia has not given permission to transport it back to Russia. Moscow cut the capacity of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline by 60 percent citing the delayed return of the turbine from being serviced in Canada.

Breaking with the EU sanctions regime on Russia Hungary’s Fidesz Party announces that Hungary will purchase an additional 700 million cubic meters of natural gas from Russia.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said Belarus has given de facto recognition to

Russia’s proxies in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk Oblast, and Crimea. The Kremlin is reportedly moving to hold so-called “referendums” in the Russian-occupied territories in order to annex them by September.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel in an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Secretary Ben Wallace the UK is reportedly ready to provide 20 M109 155mm self-propelled guns and 36 L119 105mm artillery guns to Ukraine. UK will also send counter-battery radar systems and over 50,000 rounds of ammunition.

Richard Moore, Chief of MI6, the UK's foreign intelligence service reportedly said that Russia’s ability to spy in Europe has been cut in half since the spy round up following the further invasion of Ukraine.

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued with most targets in the south and southeast. Russian shelling continues to be intensive around Siversk, Bakhmut, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and the Huliaipole region north of Kherson. Russia has likely used as much as 55-60 percent of its high-precision weaponry reserve. According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry Intelligence Directorate, Russia most often used Kalibr, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles, and also the Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems.

On the ground the Chief of MI6 Richard Moore, has said Russia has lost at least 15,000 soldiers in Ukraine and 45,000 wounded. CIA Director Bill Burns has also said the US estimates Russian casualties in Ukraine so far have reached about 15,000 killed and perhaps 45,000 wounded. Last month, Britain’s Chief of Defence Staff said 25,000 had been killed. Britain’s Mi6 also reportedly believes that Russia will have an operational pause in Ukraine due to manpower shortages but Russia has seamlessly transitioned from a Luhansk to Donetsk offensive.

CIA Director William Burns has said Russian dictator Vladimir Putin strategy hinges on the US suffering from “attention deficit disorder” and losing interest in the war in Ukraine thus giving Russia a free hand to dismember the country at whim. According to Burns, Putin is betting he can win in a war of attrition by wearing down the Ukrainian military, economy, and Western support.

Shelling continues north of and onto parts of Kharkiv with clashes on the ground in the north and northeast but no changes on the ground.

Heavy fighting continues around Siversk with a large Russian offensive yesterday to the east of Hryhorivka.

Southeast of Siversk Ukrainian forces conducted a tactical withdrawal of Berestove which is likely now under Russian control.

Fighting continues towards Bakhmut with significant fighting in and around Pokrovs'ke south of Soledar with minimal progress.

There were some Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum yesterday, but their progress was minimal.

Ukraine also successfully repelled Russian attacks between the Lysychansk oil refinery and the village of Ivano-Darivka near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast.

Russian troops failed in their attack on the Vuhlehirska power plant in Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast, and were forced to retreat.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

Around Kherson Ukrainian forces again targeted a Russian ammunition depot, this time in Skadovsk with reports of other targets hit near Kherson city.

20 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Canada is delaying the turbine return to Nord Stream due to sanctions on Gazprom. Russia is shifting the blame to Canada for the energy supply impasse as it tries to push back against EU allegations that it is weaponizing gas on an unprecedented scale.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said his country’s military goals in Ukraine are no longer limited to the eastern Donbas region but include a number of other territories. “The geography is different now. It is not only about the DNR and LNR.” “But also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhia region and a number of other territories.” “This process is continuing, consistently and persistently.”

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel in an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes continued with the south and south east targeted and reports of possible interceptions near Odesa. Russian forces also began shelling Nikopol and Zelenodolsk in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Ukrainian forces launching a new counteroffensive in this region. There were some intense shelling exchanges north of Kherson and shelling increased again into the Sumy region.

US General Mark Milley has said thatRussia is firing "tens of thousands" of artillery rounds in the Donbas every 24 hours in a "grinding war of attrition." Ukraine is providing significant resistance behind Russian lines. Russia is only gaining "a kilometer or two" each day."

On the ground, Russia has continued its offensive in Donetsk Oblast. Russia is on the offense near Berestove village, around 30 kilometers northwest of Bakhmut. The Russian army also conducted an attack near the Vuhlehirska power plant some 27 kilometers southwest of Bakhmut.

Fighting around Siversk continues to be heavy but Ukrainian forces continue to hold the city.

Fighting continues south and east of Bakhmut with Russian forces advancing on Pokrovske in the east. There was also significant fighting in the southeast around Novoluhans'ke.

There were no significant Russian attacks out of Izyum yesterday with heavy fighting at times in the west and Ukrainian forces attacking a convoy to the north.

Russian forces made no gains towards Slovyansk.

The Antonovskiy bridge reportedly remains functional in spite of rocket strikes from Ukrainian forces. Its collapse would be problematic for Russia forces as it is one of only two logistical points that Russia can use to supply or withdraw forces from occupied territories west of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

There were no reports of significant changes east of Zaporizhzhia, but Russian forces continue to reinforce units in the area.

Local officials are reporting civilians are being held hostage by Russian forces at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

19 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, China's government warned it would take ‘forceful measures’ if US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan following news reports she was going to Taipei.

EU Foreign Ministers have agreed to another 500 million euros ($504m) of funding to supply arms to Ukraine, taking the bloc’s security support to 2.5 billion euros ($2.54bn) since the Russia’s invasion began.

This week, the US will reportedly announce a new package of military assistance to Ukraine, which, in particular, will include HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems.

Turkey is once again threatening to freeze Finland and Sweden's NATO applications over the Kurdish issue And Ankara is pushing both countries on the extradition of terrorism suspects.

Officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN will most likely meet this week to discuss resuming Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports.

At the Tehran summit attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pressed his case for a military offensive against Syria's Kurds, despite Iran's supreme leader warning against such a move.

The Danish armed forces reported the discovery of a nuclear Russian submarine in the Skagerrak Strait, which is located between Denmark and Norway.

Russia has reportedly now said it will restart Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will reportedly resume after routine maintenance is completed. The pipeline, which accounts for more than a third of Russian natural gas exports to the European Union, was shut down for ten days on July 11th for repairs. The move was interpreted by critics as part of Russia's efforts to blackmail and intimidate the EU.

In a counter-move likely to irritate Moscow, the EU has signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan to double gas imports to at least 20 billion cubic meters per year by 2027. Azerbaijan's gas exports to Europe are already on track to increase from 8.1 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 12 billion cubic meters in 2022. As well, the EU has reportedly given the go-ahead to a pipeline expansion from Azerbaijan to Europe, as the TAP pipeline is critical for Southeastern Europe's energy security.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel in an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Across the theatre, Russian air/missile strikes have continued with the south and southeast suffering the majority of strikes. Russian heavy shelling continued around Siversk and Bakhmut, but was sporadic across other regions of Ukraine.

On the ground, UK Defense Intelligence has assessed that Russia’s struggles to maintain offensive combat power are becoming increasingly acute, forcing Moscow into a dilemma over whether to deploy reserves to the Donbas or defend Ukrainian attacks against Kherson. There are reports that Russian elite PDSS combat frogmen got reassigned to naval infantry in Pechenga and sent to Ukraine as elite special forces members are being thrown into regular infantry.

At the White House briefing today, John Kirby said the US has new intelligence that Russia is planning to annex additional Ukrainian territory, rolling out a playbook similar to 2014.

Fighting has continued to the north of Kharkiv but there were no real changes on the ground.

Heavy fighting continues towards Siversk around Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske and Hryhorivka to the east, but Ukrainian forces are holding their positions.

Russian units tried to advance on Dmytrivka out of Izyum, but Ukrainian forces continue contain Russian movements out of Izyum.

To the south of Izyum, Russian units pushed into Dibrovne in heavy fighting with reports a Ukrainian counteroffensive was underway to hold the area.

Russian moves towards Slovyansk were stymied by their containment in Izyum and counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces launched more attacks towards Bakhmut and on the Vuhlehirsʹka Tes power plant but were repelled.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

East of Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian forces shelled Russian units with reports of Russian artillery units and other vehicles destroyed.

There was minimal Ukrainian gains north of Kherson around the Inhulets river due to Russian air and artillery attacks.

The Kalkhovka hydroelectric plant in Kherson has become a key military target in southern Ukraine. Russia occupied the plant early in the war but it has become a Ukrainian target and Russia has warned Ukraine's counter-offensive could shut down Dnipro navigation.

Around Kherson Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian defensive positions, resupply depots, and vehicles with intelligence and support from a growing partisan network.

According to Suspilne media, explosions were heard in Kherson on the morning of July 19th. Russian state-controlled media reported that Ukraine fired six missiles at Kherson, hitting the Antonivskyi Bridge.

18 Jul 22

At the grand strategic level, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for a “European political community” a deliberately confrontational idea with anti-Russian intentions.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that the refusal of Ukraine and Western powers to recognize Moscow’s control of Crimea poses a “systemic threat” to Russia and any outside attack on the region will prompt a “Judgement Day” response.

Russian state energy Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe. Gazprom says it cannot fulfil its supply obligations because of “extraordinary” circumstances. Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Germany starting June 14th.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ivan Bakanov Director of the Security Service of Ukraine (Sluzhba Bespeky Ukrayiny, or SBU had been removed from his post and Iryna Venediktova had been removed as Prosecutor General, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel in an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

Across the theatre, Russian/air missile strikes continued but were significantly less and with the majority of strikes in the southeast and south. Russian shelling was considerably less across the Donbas but there were some heavy barrages on Kharkiv and on Zaporizhzhia. Shelling around Siversk, Soledar, Bakhmut and towards Slovyansk continued with heavy fighting ongoing in these regions.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu directed the commanders of the military operation in Ukraine to make Kiev's long-range weapons the main target of attack.

On the ground, British intelligence has suggested that Russia is increasingly reliant on untrained Wagner Group forces. British intelligence has noted that Wagner's hiring of convicts and formerly blacklisted individuals suggests that it is trying to expand its manpower and compensate for Russian military manpower shortages.

There are continued reports of increasing Russian reinforcements arriving across the border and in Belgorod. Russia has commenced new recruit training courses in Belgorod.

Around Kharkiv Russian forces continue to increase activity around defensive positions and with some clashes occurred in the north.

East of Siversk Russian forces launched more offensives towards Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka and there was heavy fighting to the southeast around Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-darivka.

There were minimal Russian manoeuvres out of Izyum with fighting ongoing to the west. To the south Russian forces made no real gains towards Slovyansk and Ukrainian forces launched localised counteroffensives pushing Russian units out of Bohorodychne.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

Russian military equipment is reportedly moving westward from Mariupol toward other parts of southern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces are on the offensive. This is likely to support Russian forces in Kherson that have come under attack from Ukrainian long-range weapons.

The outskirts of Zaporizhzhia City were shelled by Russian forces yesterday with Ukrainian forces launching a counteroffensive.

Further east from Zaporizhzhia there were Russian manoeuvres around Huliaipole with reports of more Russian reinforcements moving into the region.

Mykolaiv was targeted by Russia using missiles believed to be adapted SAMs yesterday in another indication of depleting or resupply problems with their munitions.

North of Kherson there were no reports of any further Ukrainian gains.

Russia has reportedly relocated several warships from the Naval base Sevastopol in Crimea back to Novorossiysk in Russia likely to keep them out of danger from longer range Ukrainian weaponry supplied by the west.

17 Jul 22

In summary on Day 144 of the Russo-Ukraine War, UK Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has told the BBC that Russia has lost over 30 percent of its land combat power with 50,000 Russian soldiers were either killed or injured and with nearly 1,700 tanks and nearly 4,000 armored fighting vehicles destroyed. Estimates put Ukrainian personnel losses at above 39,000 dead and injured. It seems likely that the scope of Russia’s ‘Special Operation’ in Ukraine will now aim to secure the entire Kharkiv Oblast as well as the Donbas and the southern coast of the country. Russia is still showing no interest in ending the fighting and in fact appears to be escalating and largely maintaining the momentum of its offensives. For Ukraine's part, it’s withdrawal from the Luhansk Oblast was aimed at concentrating its defensive forces against Russian attacks. As well, Ukraine's post-Lysychansk withdrawal to defensive operations in Donetsk has been partially successful. Meanwhile, British intelligence is reportedly refuting Russia's claims that it has entered Siversk. London believes that Russia is carrying out a smaller scale offensive on the outskirts of Siversk and Bakhmut. On an ominous note, If this is true, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's warnings about a Russian escalation are more significant. But at the end of the day, Russia does not appear to have the man power or modern equipment in place to make good on its strategic goals. It has a long way to go to seize the Kharkiv Oblast, Donbas, and Black Sea coast to Transnistria. Russia remains disadvantaged in that it refuses to mobilize its full combat power to use its numerical superiority to crush Ukraine.

At the grand strategic level, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has warned that the Ukraine war shows that the West’s dominance is coming to an end as China rises to superpower status in partnership with Russia.

Germany reportedly has plans to relaunch 16 coal and oil-fired power plants amid fears

Russia will cut gas supplies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz ruled out reactivating nuclear power plants to solve Germany’s energy needs.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has spoken with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, to emphasize the importance of maintaining sanctions on the Russia economy. In his conversation with Trudeau, Zelensky said he reiterated that the international position on sanctions must be principled, in light of Canada waving its sanctions against Russia to return Nord Stream 1 turbines.

The Foreign Affairs Committee of Canada’s House of Commons will reportedly call on two Ministers and three Ambassadors to explain the decision to waive sanctions on Russia around the Nord Stream 1 Turbine decision.

Belarus has 4-7 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) between Brest and Gomel in an effort to fix Ukrainian troops in the North and prevent them from reinforcing forces fighting for their survival to the south. Belarusian military are reportedly conducting reconnaissance all along the Ukraine border. While not an indication of hostile action Belarusian forces exercise tempo from mid-spring to now has been unprecedented.

At the theatre level, Russian air/missile strikes continued with a period of intensive widespread stand-off attacks by Russian strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea region. Cruise missiles targeted areas such as Vinnytsia, Uman, Poltava, Cherkasy and Dnipro in the central regions. Targets were for the most part military, communications and infrastructure. There were also land launched missiles fired from Belgorod on the Kharkiv. It was reported that Russia's attack in Vinnytsia was aimed at foiling the movement of foreign arms supplies to the Ukrainian Air Force. Russian aircraft are reportedly back to flying 200 plus sorties daily with stand off attacks, reconnaissance, Close Air Support and some SEAD operations mostly in the south and southeast. Russian shelling was less intensive across much of the Donbas but there were some intensive periods of fire around Siversk, Bakhmut and Slovyansk.

On the ground, Fighting north of Kharkiv continued with some Ukrainian counter-attacks and no success for either state.

Fighting was intensive around Siversk and its surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian forces remain in control of the city.

Heavy fighting also continued towards Bakhmut from the southeast and on the highway to the east and northeast while

Russian units made gains near Soledar.

Russian forces were able to manoeuvre some units out of Izyum with some progress.

Russian units fighting towards Slovyansk made gains with the heaviest fighting still in and around Bohorodychne.

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations along the entire Southern Axis leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counter offensives and precision strike artillery attacks.

As well, Russia is reinforcing its defensive positions across the areas it occupies in southern Ukraine.

South east of Zaporizhzhia there were shelling exchanges yesterday and reports of more Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian positions, but no changes on the ground.

Russian missiles struck industrial facilities in the strategic southern city of Mykolaiv, a key shipbuilding centre in the estuary of the Southern Bug river.

North of Kherson Russian shelling onto Ukrainian positions was intense with no changes on the ground.

Closer to Kherson Ukrainian forces targeted the airport again in the northwest and a base/depot south of Kherson.

The Russian military said its long-range air-based missiles had destroyed a depot in an industrial zone of Odesa, southern Ukraine, that stored Harpoon anti-ship missiles delivered to Ukraine by NATO countries.

Ukraine War Daily Summary

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