October 10th and North Korea’s Next Provocation Missile Test, Nuclear Test, EMP Event?
Japanese Defense Minister, Itsunori Onodera, has warned that more North Korean provocations were possible from Pyongyang on or about October 10th. The 10th coincides with the start of the Japanese lower house election campaigns and with the founding of the North Korean Communist Party. North Korea has a habit of marking noteworthy events on its calendar by conducting weapons tests, such as its fifth nuclear test last year on September 9th the founding anniversary. It is very important to note that the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has warned that in the very near future (2018) North Korea will have the ability to strike the Continental US with nuclear weapons. The window to turn back the clock is closing rapidly.
The next North Korean provocations could take many forms and force the US or Japan to try and shoot down a North Korean ballistic missile. North Korean options include:
Test-firing four nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) over Guam as the North Threatened earlier. The North has proven now that the Hwasong-12 has the range to put Guam within its reach.
Launch Pukkŭksŏng-1 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile over Japan out into the Pacific to demonstrate its effectiveness and to demonstrate the potential for a survivable second-strike capability.
Test-fire a nuclear-capable Hwasong-14 Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) over Japan and out into the Pacific. They have test-fired two Hwasong-12 IRBMS over Japan in the last month and there are reports of activity around a site related to Pyongyang’s ICBM program.
The Hermit Kingdom has threatened a nuclear test out into the Pacific and could do so presumably from one of its ballistic missile systems such as an IRBM, ICBM, or SLBM or more shockingly from one of their many freighters like the Chong Chon Gang and that seem to constantly evade sanctions enforcement.
Carryout a test of a much-threatened Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) weapon. The fact that North Korea has threatened to use EMP weapons makes almost any IRBM, SLBM, or ICBM test a
potential EMP attack increasing the likelihood of a shoot-down by US or Japanese systems. A shoot-down would allow the North Koreans to scream that the Allies had committed an act of war on Pyongyang.
